Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Biscuits

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Sardaukar20 said:
Given how badly the Indian economy relies on China. This is a disastrous idea to divert attention away from India's own domestic problems. As James Carville once said: "It's the economy, stupid".

But yeah, they really are that stupid.
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The takeaway lesson is that India is utterly lacking in situation awareness.

India is like a deer who just saw a wolf get mauled by a bear, takes a look at the bear's fur getting scratched, then thinks "if the wolf could do so well, I could do even better!".

Even South Korea led by that freaky colonial governor had the situation awareness to immediately give the persona non grata treatment to Pelosi without China even saying 1 word to them.

While the adults in the room both on China and US' side are preparing to take advantage, cut their losses and/or plan a new status quo, India is like a child interjecting into a conversation that went way above their head.

India's capability to conduct diplomacy and make decisions has fallen so far (or perhaps, it never rose), that as far as I can tell, the only reason they haven't become as irrelevant as sub saharan africa is their BRICS membership and Russia carrying them both militarily and by forcing China to let India have an adult seat the table because we're technically on the same team...
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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horse said:
Yeah, that is what I noticed.

The internet makes things easy (lack of a better word, I cannot think one).

Remember the ISIS? How did they recruit? Exclusively from the internet.

Same with all those dummies who ran off to Ukraine to fight the Russians. Like, dude! First rule of warfare, do not march towards Russia. Second rule of warfare, do not start a land war in Asia. General Montgomery thought those two rules up all by himself.

But the internet made it possible, and they went off to fight, for the frills, for the glory, to find honour, and to get liquidated rather quickly.

Same thing here, people get seduced that war could be fun.

Maybe that is the right word?

The internet seduces.

Makes people do and believe in all sorts of things, many of which are unpleasant and dangerous to oneself, others, or society at large. [rant][/rant]

:oops:
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Let me just say that I came from a family that has served in the military since WWII against the Imperial Japan. On my paternal side my grandfather fought against the Imperial Japanese as a guerilla fighter then eventually married my grandmother to protect her dignity after being raped by the Japanese officer producing a child that became my uncle (half-Japanese) my father wanted to emulate his father's legacy of serving the (adopted) nation so he joined the military was sent to the southern (Southern Cotabato/Maguindanao) part of the country to help pacify the burgeoning Islamic, communist separatists/rebels.

I lost many God fathers from being ambushed, attended funerals what felt like every week or something (my memory maybe shaky since I was only a little kid) when my Dad was away on missions, my mom would sleep beside with an Armalite rifle (I was trained how to handle a rifle at a young age since I was the "man" of the house and only son of the family at that time) for protection just in case the rebels manage to penetrate the base camp. My father was trained in jungle warfare, served multiple tours, and we were on constant move that eventually caused enough strain to his marriage which eventually crumbled with my mother. My father's family all came from Guangdong region of China, settled in the Philippines only to once again faced the savagery of the Japanese brutality..so I think I have some ideas on what conflict is like on a smaller scale and they're not pretty or movie like.

One mishap from the interception attempt could have ignited a war that was not on the cards. That could have happened if the leaders in China was under democratic regime, and the need to show force would be extremely high because you want to avoid being accused of weak etc...what a stupid thing to say and assume about warfare.

So if I get heated it's partly genetics and experience accumulated from my past. That's all am going to say about my background.
 
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taxiya

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There is some similarities to the Diaoyu island crisis some years ago. Before Japan's "nationalization" Japanese actually landed on the island multiple times, Japanese CG and police actually arrested Chinese in the territorial water of the island which demonstrated that Japan had actual control. Chinese CG or Navy never went in the surrounding water. Since the crisis, Chinese CG went in regularly and in this July went into the territorial water to expel Japanese "fishing" ships. However Chinese never landed on the island.

We can treat Polesi's visit as the Japanese landing on Diaoyu island, what PLA is doing right now, ESPECIALLY if it becomes regular, we would be seeing Diaoyu kind of game replaying on Taiwan. Is there any outcry about Diaoyu besides Japan? No, it becomes normal to everybody. But being normal to everybody is going to have very negative impact on Taiwan's economy, big companies can not afford to have their supplies and transportation shut for many days and on unpredictable bases.

I am quite satisfied to see that the US and its puppets were not more forceful in their protest of PLA exercise. That encourages PLA to do more often.
 
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Biscuits

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stannislas said:
Key question is when? After the fire drill or during?
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Given last I checked it was still heading northeast, likely later rather than sooner.

But, China could also extend the drills far ahead and then the schedules would intersect.

So it seems round 2 starts soon.

Edit:

It also makes sense to do it later after most PLAN dispersed because 1 CV isnt enough throw weight to look good, it will just be surrounded, the escorts hopelessly outnumbered by larger PLA DDGs, it'll resemble more a humiliating prisoner walk than a show of force.

Now if US sent 4+ CVs then things get very serious and chances of war become highly likely. China don't have enough ships to crowd them out, but they also ain't gonna tolerate that in the straits. So it's gonna be very tempting to pull the trigger with more than 4 fat ducks in the rifle sight.
 
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