Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Petrolicious88 said:

There are no elements of surprise when it comes to attacking Taiwan (at least when it comes to unification). Massive of troops will be detected in advance. Only a few beaches where Chinese troops can land, and they are all fortified. Only a few months of the year where amphibious style crossing is possible.

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It need not have to be so.

Campign will start with sea and air. Nullify of median line means zero early warning for Taiwanese air defence. PLA can afford to attack with no warning.

Most of the land equipments like tanks, artillery, signal equipments etc needed for ground campaign would already put in storage in various locations in Fujian and Zhejiang.

What needed is the mobilisation of troops to operate them. With HSR network, large number of troops and light equipments can be mobilised to fujian quickly. I dare say PLA ability to mobilise manpower and resources is unmatched.

With this arrangement, China don't need to maintain large number of ground troops in Fujian.

Mobilisation can start right after commencement of air and sea campaign which my guesstimate will take 4 to 7 days. This period will be enough to gain air and sea control as well as Penghu. Thereafter ground campign can begin.

siegecrossbow said:

Let’s not retro actively defend this dumb decision like Jai Hinds usually do. It was clearly meant to deter the Pelosi and failed. What’s happening now are makeup measures.

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Looking back the CMC most likely prepared several different playbooks for possible scenarios after the Xi-Biden talk. When it became clear that Biden was unable to prevent Pelosi's Taiwan visit the CMC adopted the playbook for aggressive military exercises exceeding levels reached in the 1996 crisis.

Kich said:

I think he misspoke.
Cause if they send CSG or even just a carrier itself through the straight strait, that would be worse than Pelosi landing in Taiwan. A bigger insult in my opinion.

US would definitely be seen as the aggressors by countries in the region--so great for China--but China will react much stronger if that happens.

But this move really begs the question whether US really is trying to goad China into actual conflict. I didn't believe those arguments before but if this happens, then I will totally alter my views.

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I wouldn't get angry or feel insulted over meaningless salami-slicing moves. So long as Taiwan doesn't have nukes, no US bases/troops, no independence, China already won. What US is doing is tweaks around the edges, no fundamental change in the balance of power or situation.

I deleted my earlier post because I thought I prematurely posted what I thought was a balanced analysis from an American military (Army) perspective due to some usual misunderstanding, intentional diminishing of Mao, the reasons why KMT and Jiang Jieshi failed in China...I had to watched the entire video and see if it's worth watching and am glad to say that yeah it is.

The presentation, analysis is as balanced one can get with China, the PLA and it's current capability. The analysts talked about China's nukes, hypersonic and ballistic missiles, the theater command structure changes, Combined Arms Brigade, new Army tactics and training etc..the 1st island chain, 2nd island chain etc..
most especially they talked about the upcoming inevitable conflict with China as a matter of when not if.

But send a CSG to Taiwan strait will never frighten China anymore.
China now have ASBM and can also send the same to the strait(carrier,055,052D,054A,093).

tch1972 said:

It need not have to be so.

Campign will start with sea and air. Nullify of median line means zero early warning for Taiwanese air defence. PLA can afford to attack with no warning.

Most of the land equipments like tanks, artillery, signal equipments etc needed for ground campaign would already put in storage in various locations in Fujian and Zhejiang.

What needed is the mobilisation of troops to operate them. With HSR network, large number of troops and light equipments can be mobilised to fujian quickly. I dare say PLA ability to mobilise manpower and resources is unmatched.

With this arrangement, China don't need to maintain large number of ground troops in Fujian.

Mobilisation can start right after commencement of air and sea campaign which my guesstimate will take 4 to 7 days. This period will be enough to gain air and sea control as well as Penghu. Thereafter ground campign can begin.

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That’s the thing about surprises!

What if after all the pieces are in place for an invasion this Sunday, a few miles of the Taiwan coast, and they just go ahead and do it, would that surprise the US?

Petrolicious88 said:

There are no elements of surprise when it comes to attacking Taiwan (at least when it comes to unification). Massive of troops will be detected in advance. Only a few beaches where Chinese troops can land, and they are all fortified. Only a few months of the year where amphibious style crossing is possible.

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lol you get this from Ian Easton?

FairAndUnbiased said:

lol you get this from Ian Easton?

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Wikipedia.

lych470 said:

Looking back the CMC most likely prepared several different playbooks for possible scenarios after the Xi-Biden talk. When it became clear that Biden was unable to prevent Pelosi's Taiwan visit the CMC adopted the playbook for aggressive military exercises exceeding levels reached in the 1996 crisis.

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i think that would be the base case, anything short of what you described wouldve been a negligent of duty. the WH and pentagon certainly had a few contingency plans of their own as well

Andy1974 said:

That’s the thing about surprises!

What if after all the pieces are in place for an invasion this Sunday, a few miles of the Taiwan coast, and they just go ahead and do it, would that surprise the US?

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At the moment, all the ground movement we see is just demonstration and dry run.

China don't have the intention of invading the island for now. Running a rebellious island itself present a bigger headache. But of course if Taiwanese authority is stupid enough to fire the 1st shot, China shouldn't miss the opportunity.