Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Not reading too much into the India stuff. It sounds like it was planned for awhile and India is well... India. Its not gonna come to any serious blows.

Overall, India is still neutral or pro Russian aligned even, which unfortunately makes them also China's teammate by proxy. As long as India is in BRICS and refuses to follow US sanctions, I doubt any serious threat materalizes from them.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
If America wants to deescalate and return things to normal, this seems reckless. Retaliating with more exercises near China is just going to give the PLA more of an excuse to keep pushing against Taiwan's boundaries.

Well, I guess the PRC should be happy that the Americans are just as inept at the whole diplomacy thing as they are. A little parting gift from one Donald Trump, I suppose.
Which is why this former Indian Artillery Captain long retired, turned academic/military analyst firmly believes that China will fight against India. I was always leery of this opinion but maybe he's not too far off with his predictions.

 

dasCKD

New Member
Registered Member
Not reading too much into the India stuff. It sounds like it was planned for awhile and India is well... India. Its not gonna come to any serious blows.

Overall, India is still neutral or pro Russian aligned even, which unfortunately makes them also China's teammate by proxy. As long as India is in BRICS and refuses to follow US sanctions, I doubt any serious threat materalizes from them.
Yeah, India likes to talk big game and antagonize China and Indian nationalists are annoying, but it's doubtful that India would ever really interfere with China in a big way. Both of them have far too much to gain by knocking America off of their hegemonic perch. What I am surprised by, however, is that America is going on ahead with this. Surely this is a good opportunity for America to do a whole big song and dance about how they're cancelling this exercise because things are tense in Asia right now and playing up the whole angle about how America's doing what it can to maintain peace and China's being so aggressive and awful etc, etc, etc.

It seems like America needs someone to look over the shoulder of their diplomatic core as well. I wonder who'd pay me in better Shinano body pillows. The PRC or the US.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Yeah, India likes to talk big game and antagonize China and Indian nationalists are annoying, but it's doubtful that India would ever really interfere with China in a big way. Both of them have far too much to gain by knocking America off of their hegemonic perch. What I am surprised by, however, is that America is going on ahead with this. Surely this is a good opportunity for America to do a whole big song and dance about how they're cancelling this exercise because things are tense in Asia right now and playing up the whole angle about how America's doing what it can to maintain peace and China's being so aggressive and awful etc, etc, etc.

It seems like America needs someone to look over the shoulder of their diplomatic core as well. I wonder who'd pay me in better Shinano body pillows. The PRC or the US.
Meh I think for both US and China this "high altitude" exercise isn't meaningful and it was probably planned a long time ago. I could imagine its mostly just some US salesmen going over and showing India the US high altitude gear to wow them and some purchases. Then you'll hear jai hinds talk about how their new assembled in America (from Chinese components) thermoses and tents give them a big advantage.

If the exercise involves thousands of troops like the typical SCO or NATO exercises then there is a little more cause for concern but nowhere have I seen the number of troops involved here, so I can only conclude it is a small, goodwill type exercise like the ones China even do with US and Japan from time to time.

About canceling it, India will make a huge fuss if its canceled, while China doesn't really care what 2 sovereign nations do especially when it's on a tiny scale. Its hard to imagine the exercises incurring any wrath from China, and while Xi has the initiative now, he should also not overplay his hand by threatening every single thing US does, even when it's unrelated. That would just cause the perception of aggressor to switch over to China.

The capital gained by US misstep still needs to be invested intelligently. And grilling US over some irrelevant exercise with a BRICS member isn't it.
 
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Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member

Has this been posted? This is the Fox news white house correspondent so it's fairly credible
I think he misspoke.
Cause if they send CSG or even just a carrier itself through the straight strait, that would be worse than Pelosi landing in Taiwan. A bigger insult in my opinion.

US would definitely be seen as the aggressors by countries in the region--so great for China--but China will react much stronger if that happens.

But this move really begs the question whether US really is trying to goad China into actual conflict. I didn't believe those arguments before but if this happens, then I will totally alter my views.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
There is some similarities to the Diaoyu island crisis some years ago. Before Japan's "nationalization" Japanese actually landed on the island multiple times, Japanese CG and police actually arrested Chinese in the territorial water of the island which demonstrated that Japan had actual control. Chinese CG or Navy never went in the surrounding water. Since the crisis, Chinese CG went in regularly and in this July went into the territorial water to expel Japanese "fishing" ships. However Chinese never landed on the island.

We can treat Polesi's visit as the Japanese landing on Diaoyu island, what PLA is doing right now, ESPECIALLY if it becomes regular, we would be seeing Diaoyu kind of game replaying on Taiwan. Is there any outcry about Diaoyu besides Japan? No, it becomes normal to everybody. But being normal to everybody is going to have very negative impact on Taiwan's economy, big companies can not afford to have their supplies and transportation shut for many days and on unpredictable bases.

I am quite satisfied to see that the US and its puppets were not more forceful in their protest of PLA exercise. That encourages PLA to do more often.

It is quite possible that it was a deal between China and the USA to not lose face of both sides
* Because if Nancy cancelled the visit would be a disaster PR for the US govt
* If China is doing nothing would be a disaster too for Chinese Govt

So perhaps it is just a deal that okay Nancy would visit but we (China) would do more intense exercise around Taiwan and USN won't do anything. China actually gains significantly more as now there will be no more median line
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I think he misspoke.
Cause if they send CSG or even just a carrier itself through the straight strait, that would be worse than Pelosi landing in Taiwan. A bigger insult in my opinion.

US would definitely be seen as the aggressors by countries in the region--so great for China--but China will react much stronger if that happens.

But this move really begs the question whether US really is trying to goad China into actual conflict. I didn't believe those arguments before but if this happens, then I will totally alter my views.

”We gotta do something to deescalate” - Biden NeoAdmin.

“Postpone the minuteman test.” - Advisor.

“Genius move. Now that it’s deescalated. We can send an CSG into the Taiwan Strait” - Biden NeoAdmin.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
I think he misspoke.
Cause if they send CSG or even just a carrier itself through the straight strait, that would be worse than Pelosi landing in Taiwan. A bigger insult in my opinion.

US would definitely be seen as the aggressors by countries in the region--so great for China--but China will react much stronger if that happens.

But this move really begs the question whether US really is trying to goad China into actual conflict. I didn't believe those arguments before but if this happens, then I will totally alter my views.
Hold this thought, I believe the answer is yes that at the highest level America has already decided to bring total full scale war to China no matter what.... if true, its going to happen before end of August 2022.... I dont buy the "this is just US dysfunction" not one bit, there is no coincidences when the very existential stake of American hegemony itself lay in the balance....
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This tweet explains why Pelosi was so keen to visit Taiwan.


So you've got the president who openly took bribes from Ukraine through his son, and now it turns out Pelosi receiving millions through the Taiwanese government and the ruling political party. In both cases the money originally probably came from US foreign aid.

Is there any other country with corruption this endemic? I've no idea why Americans are happy with the way things are.
 
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