Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

Agnus said:

For an insurgency to be successful against a great power, it needs supply lines that can't be cut off. In a way, it is wrong to say that US was defeated by a bunch of backward ''rice farmers'' during the Vietnam war. That implies they did it on their own without other factors in play. The Communist victory was achievable because Maoist China existed as a supply/industrial base to prop up the North Vietnamese was effort. That's why, no matter how many bombs that US dropped didn't matter because the industrial base fueling the war in China and USSR, not in Vietnam. That's why, the Japanese couldn't win. They had no industrial base beyond Japan itself. The Japanese were as fanatical as the Vietnamese if not more.
Taiwan is an island. Air drops are not enough to sustain a long time insurgency.

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That is correct guerilla war need a lot of space to maneuver and as you said need support. Taiwan is small isolated island far away from Japan or US. it also need plenty of support that can come from population or neighboring country. Without those support it is like fish without water they will be cut off and withered away. All you have to do is cut off the access to the guerilla area. Living on the land is not easy , I once hike in Johor Jungle no food, rain, scorpion, blood sucking leeches, hot very humid

Another think I don't think the average youth in Taiwan has stomach for a guerilla war. It need people who are desperate and has nothing to lose. Don't think it apply to strawberry generation in Taiwan who never experience deprivation and want. After all living under PRC is not so bad so many of their compatriot has decamp to Kunshan dubbed little Taiwan because so many Taiwanese live there. they will adjust and accommodate

So all those talk about guerilla war is nothing but pipe dream!

FairAndUnbiased said:

HK showed that an iron fist is the best way. Look at how all that went silent from a simple law. If law was effective then I.S.A.F. should've just made Ta.li.ban illegal and stopped it - but law is most effective when backed with the implicit threat of effective force. And HK rioters knew that it was the case and smartened up.

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It's not that simple. By stepping in at the last moment after the young idiots made a mess of things gained the support of the middle/majorities. By facing down the foreign powers the elites that expected foreign intervention were discredited. Hence central government now have the popular support to clean house. Had it acted too soon, there would be a lot more resistance compare to now.

antiterror13 said:

If you have been to Taiwan and see the terrain and know how kind Taiwanese are .. you will know that there is a zero chance there will be guerrilla warfare. And do you know what, PLA is the god of guerrilla warfare

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Bro, I actually successfully waged a "guerrilla warfare" against my 教官 (drill sergeant) during my college military training 军训 (required for all college students in China) a little more than 10 years ago. It is not that difficult for a group of dudes who have basic training and cause mass casualties among "occupying troops" caught off guard. So my university and the PAP unit we were sent to gave us the privilege to taste what real combat would be like during the last week of our freshman year military training. We were given type 81 assault rifles with blank rounds, along with the MILES. WE "AMBUSHED AND ANNIHILATED" our drill instructor and his professional troops (revenge for all the rough times he gave us before, such as making us march under the sun for 3 hours wearing those blister-creating green coloured Liberation Shoes解放鞋). During the subsequent "battle," we captured a "fortress" guarded by professional PAP guys. Out team took around 35-40% casualty, but we were judged "victorious" for cutting off "enemies'" supply lines and taking out their frontline outpost. Even the commandant of the base (a senior colonel) suggested that my team should considered careers in the PAP, but I politely declined.

But may be you are right that in a real combat scenario, while each Taiwanese guerrilla group might be able to annihilate many PLA and PAP squads, they may eventually be compelled to lay down their arms once they run out of food and ammo. Still, the amount of casualty they could cause should not be taken lightly, especially since most PLA and PAP soldiers are single child born after 1990 (you are talking about tens and thousands of Chinese families losing their lineages and become completely devastated with no more hopes in humanity). Honestly, the same experience got me interested in IR and political science, but it also led me to detest war and killings in the name of politics. We had a fun "game" with our drill instructors using blank rounds and MILES. but I understand in a real combat scenario, it would mean destroying families and pushing countless wives and mothers to the brinks of suicides. So let's just hope that Xi, Tsai, and Biden can come up something (anything) better than killing people. I'm pretty sure there are solutions to the Taiwan and South China Sea issues beyond lethal projectiles.

Remember the CIA trained ten thousand Tibetan refugees to be insurgents ready to sabotage Chinese plans in Tibet. The CIA sent everyone one of them into Tibet and not one was ever heard from again. I don't know where this typical romanticized nonsense comes from. All I see is all the US's Asian allies look at the US to do all the dirty work. That doesn't say there's this fighting spirit. Plus what screws the US macro plans is they get in trouble when they cover themselves silly caring about human rights and then they always end up abusing them behind closed doors. Where does China hide behind human rights like the West does? According to the West there's a genocide going on in China against Muslims right now... and they're doing nothing about it. Taiwanese insurgents... they'll be dead. China's first strikes will be Taiwan's high tech sector. The West won't be getting advanced computer chips anymore meaning Taiwan already lost its strategic value to the West. Do you think they would care as much after that? The US wants Taiwan to give its technology secrets to them so Taiwan isn't that important to them anymore. Get a hint...

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Bro, I actually successfully waged a "guerrilla warfare" against my 教官 (drill sergeant) during my college military training 军训 (required for all college students in China) a little more than 10 years ago. It is not that difficult for a group of dudes who have basic training and cause mass casualties among "occupying troops" caught off guard. So my university and the PAP unit we were sent to gave us the privilege to taste what real combat would be like during the last week of our freshman year military training. We were given type 81 assault rifles with blank rounds, along with the MILES. WE "AMBUSHED AND ANNIHILATED" our drill instructor and his professional troops (revenge for all the rough times he gave us before, such as making us march under the sun for 3 hours wearing those blister-creating green coloured Liberation Shoes解放鞋). During the subsequent "battle," we captured a "fortress" guarded by professional PAP guys. Out team took around 35-40% casualty, but we were judged "victorious" for cutting off "enemies'" supply lines and taking out their frontline outpost. Even the commandant of the base (a senior colonel) suggested that my team should considered careers in the PAP, but I politely declined.

But may be you are right that in a real combat scenario, while each Taiwanese guerrilla group might be able to annihilate many PLA and PAP squads, they may eventually be compelled to lay down their arms once they run out of food and ammo. Still, the amount of casualty they could cause should not be taken lightly, especially since most PLA and PAP soldiers are single child born after 1990 (you are talking about tens and thousands of Chinese families losing their lineages and become completely devastated with no more hopes in humanity).

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Historically, US only suffered a few thousand casualties in Afghanistan over 20 years, even though Ta.li.ban gets resupplied with heavy weapons like 12.7 mm machine guns and missiles through Pakistan, Ta.li.ban has religious fervor, Ta.li.ban are all from big families with 5 children and the US will not retaliate against their families.

Will you dare pick up weapons against China in a guerilla war knowing there's no resupply coming? Will you dare do so knowing that you're an only child too? Will you do so with nothing to look forward to in the future, not even an afterlife? Finally, what do you think will happen to your family?

Even if you only fight to surrender and not to the death - how long do you think you'll be in prison for? At that point you're not a soldier anymore, so you will not get any POW protections, you will be treated like a criminal. That means you can be charged with murder and ter.ror.ism. You want to be working in a gulag breaking small rocks into tiny rocks for next 50 years?

ZeEa5KPul said:

I hate to be pedantic, but it's "dead giveaway", as in:

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When people are talking about guerrilla war, insurrection and locking up 2 million people, these are deadly business. I wasn't teasing. I was actually dead serious.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Historically, US only suffered a few thousand casualties in Afghanistan over 20 years, even though Ta.li.ban gets resupplied with heavy weapons like 12.7 mm machine guns and missiles through Pakistan, Ta.li.ban has religious fervor, Ta.li.ban are all from big families with 5 children and the US will not retaliate against their families.

Will you dare pick up weapons against China in a guerilla war knowing there's no resupply coming? Will you dare do so knowing that you're an only child too? Will you do so with nothing to look forward to in the future, not even an afterlife? Finally, what do you think will happen to your family?

Even if you only fight to surrender and not to the death - how long do you think you'll be in prison for? At that point you're not a soldier anymore, so you will not get any POW protections, you will be treated like a criminal. That means you can be charged with murder and ter.ror.ism. You want to be working in a gulag breaking small rocks into tiny rocks for next 50 years?

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China would have to pay a high price, too. Think about how many martyrs' families the government would then have to subsidize and provide affordable living standards. Also, even with government-arranged jobs and welfare, these family members would live the rest of their lives with PTSD and traumas. They could get even more traumatized when their late husbands and sons become propaganda tools. Btw I am talking about PLA and PAP casualties under the scenario in which China beat Taiwan, the US, Australia, and Japan in a conventional war, assuming a final PLA pyrrhic conventional victory (when the PLA and PAP takes up to at least 500,000 casualties). But do keep in mind that such victorious China would be under long-term multilateral economic embargo by all white nations (plus ROK and Japan) except maybe Russia (but who knows, maybe the Russian could take advantage of China's isolation as well).

weig2000 said:

When people are talking about guerrilla war, insurrection and locking up 2 million people, these are deadly business. I wasn't teasing. I was actually dead serious.

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You jest. lol

failed propaganda.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

China would have to pay a high price, too. Think about how many martyrs' families the government would then have to subsidize and provide affordable living standards. Also, even with government-arranged jobs and welfare, these family members would live the rest of their lives with PTSD and traumas. They could get even more traumatized when their late husbands and sons become propaganda tools. Btw I am talking about PLA and PAP casualties under the scenario in which China beat Taiwan, the US, Australia, and Japan in a conventional war, assuming a final PLA pyrrhic conventional victory (when the PLA and PAP takes up to at least 500,000 casualties). But do keep in mind that such victorious China would be under long-term multilateral economic embargo by all white nations (plus ROK and Japan) except maybe Russia (but who knows, maybe the Russian could take advantage of China's isolation as well).

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Wait you started talking about insurgents first, then you now move to conventional war? Which are you talking about exactly?

In a war like that where are these numbers coming from? Most of the fighting will be air and naval. If China loses, even if entire PLAN gets sunk it isn't 500k casualties. The only way they get more is if they start bombing civilians and then strategic weapons are on the table. If China wins air and naval supremacy, then ground based resistance will be ineffective just like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Look at it from Taiwanese point of view. Fertility rate 1.2. How many of them are only children? Fighting will be on their territory. Their families will be dealing with being fired upon even by accident. Their entire livelihoods will be destroyed if water treatment, sewage, power, oil refineries, semiconductor fabs, bridges, etc. are hit. Disease will be everywhere because of no sewage treatment. They have no water. They have no oil. They have no food. They have no power. They have no job. The longer fighting goes on the worse it gets because they can't repair in the middle of a war.

Look at it from American or Japanese point of view. How many of them are only children? How many white American parents will vote for a government that sent their kids to die to Chinamen on the other side of the world for a losing war? What is the morale gonna be if an entire fleet is sunk from 2000+ km away with no way to fight back by DF21 or subs?

Remember that PLAN and PLAAF will be fighting close by too. If a PLAAF pilot is shot down, there is the possibility of recovery. If a PLAN ship is sunk, there is the possibility of rowing back in lifeboats. But if an enemy fleet gets sunk or crippled in the middle of the Pacific, it is too far to be rescued or row back in lifeboats. If they get shot down, they land in the ocean and are too far to be rescued.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Bro, I actually successfully waged a "guerrilla warfare" against my 教官 (drill sergeant) during my college military training 军训 (required for all college students in China) a little more than 10 years ago. It is not that difficult for a group of dudes who have basic training and cause mass casualties among "occupying troops" caught off guard. So my university and the PAP unit we were sent to gave us the privilege to taste what real combat would be like during the last week of our freshman year military training. We were given type 81 assault rifles with blank rounds, along with the MILES. WE "AMBUSHED AND ANNIHILATED" our drill instructor and his professional troops (revenge for all the rough times he gave us before, such as making us march under the sun for 3 hours wearing those blister-creating green coloured Liberation Shoes解放鞋). During the subsequent "battle," we captured a "fortress" guarded by professional PAP guys. Out team took around 35-40% casualty, but we were judged "victorious" for cutting off "enemies'" supply lines and taking out their frontline outpost. Even the commandant of the base (a senior colonel) suggested that my team should considered careers in the PAP, but I politely declined.

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When was the last time Taiwanese soldiers marched under the sun for 3 hours?