Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

By the time the PLA has the means to invade Taiwan, some 90% of the Taiwanese population would be like the Hong Kongers and the Uighurs (die-hard refusal to submit to CCP rule). So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid.

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These are some pretty poor examples to use since both insurrections were crushed like bugs with trivial ease. How are you going to have guerrilla warfare, insurrections, and foreign intelligence operations on a tiny island China would completely control? Insurgencies thrive because a neighbour supports them.

Protip: Islands have no neighbours.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Ultimately they are the majority on their own piece of land, and they are waiting for the opportunity to rise up violently again.

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They're waiting like I'm waiting to become a trillionaire. We're both going to be waiting a while.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

but large-scale property confiscations could lead to a sudden exodus of much-needed foreign capital, which is what keep Hong Kong the city it is and benefits many Chinese firms as well.

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That's manifestly untrue. China has confiscated enemy assets and imposed its will on capital in China and the FDI only climbs further and further. It's foreign capital that desperately needs to be in China.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

I don't think those HK rioters have smartened up. Ultimately they are the majority on their own piece of land, and they are waiting for the opportunity to rise up violently again. A war with Taiwan, stock market crash, natural disaster in Southern China, etc. could all be taken as opportunities for an uprising (unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang of course, but it is too early to tell if the Xinjiang approach is effective as of now, not to mention the international backlash/sanctions China already receives). Another approach is to confiscate the capital that supports the rioters (such as seizure of Jimmy Lai's company or those who fund the rioters and pro-independence groups), but large-scale property confiscations could lead to a sudden exodus of much-needed foreign capital, which is what keep Hong Kong the city it is and benefits many Chinese firms as well.

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What's the Xinjiang approach? Give free education and job training? Or you watching too many CIA cartoons?

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Well the risk is that the DPP always pushes things too hard when China is not yet ready to have the means to credibly invade Taiwan. For example, in 2007, the Chen Shuibian gov't pushed for UN membership when the PLA was completely unprepared and Beijing was in the mood the host the 2008 Olympic Games above everything else. Lee also proposed the two-states theory in 1996 when Beijing lacked any means of leveraging Taiwan. Now Tsai is trying to complete the de-sinicisation process, join CPTPP, and other international treaties before China has full leverage over Taiwan. By the time the PLA has the means to invade Taiwan, some 90% of the Taiwanese population would be like the Hong Kongers and the Uighurs (die-hard refusal to submit to CCP rule). So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid.

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"So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid."

Where do you base this IMHO absurd assumptions from? The Taiwanese fighting age population are not even lining up in droves to sign up for their military in order to fight against the supposed Communist Chinese infidels coming to absorb the province back then how can anyone with any sense of history and cultural understanding of that place could even entertain the notion that Taiwan will be able to muster an effective guerilla fighting force? Who's going to lead them? The English vegetable lady? Taiwanese culture is being feminized or becoming effeminate in my personal opinion based on the amount of Gay themes I noticed in that province's "entertainment."

So you have men that's being turned into a patsy and the women clutching their hopes and dreams for the Anglo-Saxon men how the heck in the world am I going to expect your assumptions to be based but on nothing but sheer fiction and wishful fantasy.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar are all capable of putting up guerilla resistance based on their historical legacies and imbued warrior like ethos in their cultural DNA. The Philippines has and is still facing guerilla forces from two factions the N.P.A (New People's Army) and MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) lose groups/affiliates like the Abu Sayyaf, M.I.L.F. (Moro Islamic Liberation Front).

What's the history of rebellion or guerilla movement in Taiwan? Sunflower revolution? Let's get real here.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

I don't think those HK rioters have smartened up. Ultimately they are the majority on their own piece of land, and they are waiting for the opportunity to rise up violently again. A war with Taiwan, stock market crash, natural disaster in Southern China, etc. could all be taken as opportunities for an uprising (unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang of course, but it is too early to tell if the Xinjiang approach is effective as of now, not to mention the international backlash/sanctions China already receives). Another approach is to confiscate the capital that supports the rioters (such as seizure of Jimmy Lai's company or those who fund the rioters and pro-independence groups), but large-scale property confiscations could lead to a sudden exodus of much-needed foreign capital, which is what keep Hong Kong the city it is and benefits many Chinese firms as well.

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"unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang."

Is this you Adrian Zens... I did not know you were now residing in China.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

I don't think those HK rioters have smartened up. Ultimately they are the majority on their own piece of land, and they are waiting for the opportunity to rise up violently again. A war with Taiwan, stock market crash, natural disaster in Southern China, etc. could all be taken as opportunities for an uprising (unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang of course, but it is too early to tell if the Xinjiang approach is effective as of now, not to mention the international backlash/sanctions China already receives). Another approach is to confiscate the capital that supports the rioters (such as seizure of Jimmy Lai's company or those who fund the rioters and pro-independence groups), but large-scale property confiscations could lead to a sudden exodus of much-needed foreign capital, which is what keep Hong Kong the city it is and benefits many Chinese firms as well.

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Only 1 person out of 7+ million gave up his life for the revolution the past 2 years. Most just want to talk - garbage and go among their lives. I expect Hong Kong to turn and become large majority pro-china in a the next 5-15 years when housing / social issues are fixed, china becomes much more richer/powerful, and some experimental polling/voting governing system is introduced. I believe China will allow a fixed/patriotic 1 country 2 system in HK for the case of luring Taiwan back into the fold without a military confrontation. Or at least the very least, start changing the mind of the Tawanese population to become pro-china

PiSigma said:

What's the Xinjiang approach? Give free education and job training? Or you watching too many CIA cartoons?

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Job training indeed, but with other supposedly extracurricular educations, disciplinary actions, and activities too controversial for discussions here, plus we don't have enough info. Still, if the end result of whatever goes on in these camps is a highly skilled, competent, and disciplined workforce refrain from rebellious activities, then so be it...maybe time will tell if this approach would be effective in turning diehard rebels into hardworking citizens. It is too early now, as this approach only started in 2017. It takes years, if not decades, to potentially change a person's political beliefs through a combination of work experience, social interactions, etc.

Bellum_Romanum said:

The Taiwanese fighting age population are not even lining up in droves to sign up for their military in order to fight against the supposed Communist Chinese infidels coming to absorb the province back then how can anyone with any sense of history and cultural understanding of that place could even entertain the notion that Taiwan will be able to muster an effective guerilla fighting force? Who's going to lead them?

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That's because most Taiwanese don't even believe China will invade. They actually think they can get away with preserving the status quo and entrenching de facto independence through salami-slicing tactics (working in tandem with Washington).

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Job training indeed, but with other supposedly extracurricular educations, disciplinary actions, and activities too controversial for discussions here, plus we don't have enough info. Still, if the end result of whatever goes on in these camps is a highly skilled, competent, and disciplined workforce refrain from rebellious activities, then so be it...maybe time will tell if this approach would be effective in turning diehard rebels into hardworking citizens. It is too early now, as this approach only started in 2017. It takes years, if not decades, to potentially change a person's political beliefs through a combination of work experience, social interactions, etc.

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You could have just answered you watch CIA fantasy cartoons. Much more efficient answer.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

That's because most Taiwanese don't even believe China will invade. They actually think they can get away with preserving the status quo and entrenching de facto independence through salami-slicing tactics (working in tandem with Washington).

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Delusional, it just shows that Taiwan in an actual war is more likely to fold then actually fight for their so called freedom. But I guess since none of them have ever fought in the Korean War or the Vietnam war, that have never ever understood what a true fight is like and no Hollywood has blinded them to the idea that the stars and strips will save them when it is abundantly proven otherwise

PiSigma said:

You could have just answered you watch CIA fantasy cartoons. Much more efficient answer.

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Politics are dirty affairs, and nothing is free. As Mao said, revolution is not a dinner party. It is about the majority rising up to take away the privileges of a small minority trampling on the formers, as well as crushing any dissents against the collectivity (albeit Cultural Revolution completely went over the top and nearly destroyed the country). So...if you got a rebellious ethnic minority receiving affirmative actions aids from the state while still refusing to become responsible members of the imagined collective i (PRC in this case), then the state leaders would have to take arbitrary actions in the name of preserving the collective interest, not to mention China is actually a socialist country (collective interest always placed above the individual). That is why I am not surprised at all with the whole Xinjiang drama, if it were true. Just wait, should the PRC successfully takes Taiwan, expect more of those camps to pop up. If you want to take back your perceived lost territories, you better have the means to be nastier than those who refuse to drop their weapons. Also, do some research on Wang Zhen and Deng Liqun in Xinjiang (1949-1952) before they were replaced by Xi Zhongxun. It is the whole argument about the end justifies the means.