Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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ChongqingHotPot92

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How many white American parents will vote for a government that sent their kids to die to Chinamen on the other side of the world for a losing war? What is the morale gonna be if an entire fleet is sunk from 2000+ km away with no way to fight back by DF21 or subs?
Why would Britain fight Germany in 1914? It is the whole Anglo-Saxon mindset about picking a fight with the strongest foe and gamble such risk would pay off to perpetuate dominance (hegemony). AND keep in mind that Americans are very ideological and use christianity to justify the necessary sacrifices necessary to maintain hegemony. Losing to Taliban does nothing to weaken US-led order, but losing to China could mean the end of the US a Pacific power. Therefore, for maritime powers, pick the strongest land powers and defeat them with the hope of perpetuating your leadership. Otherwise, once such land power were to become powerful enough to build a navy to erode your dominance it would be too late. It is also why Britain could tolerate rising powers elsewhere (US and Japan), but simply could not afford to have Germany becoming the dominant power in Europe. So yes, from a traditional maritime power's perspective, the US will fight China because it is only nation state with risk of ending US hegemony.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

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When was the last time Taiwanese soldiers marched under the sun for 3 hours?
I wouldn't say march, but it is pretty common for all militaries to walk several miles for 2-3 hours wearing heavy gears though. I would be surprised of 国军 soldiers today can't even bear standing under the summer heat for a few hours. It is basic combat tenacity and survival skills. If ordinary civilians can do it, so can soldiers. Trust me, when I started my college military training, it was painful to run three laps around a soccer field. But after the training, I started training for Guangzhou marathon since I realized how physically adaptable human bodies can be. By the way, it was pretty fun to carry the type 81, wear a GK80 helmet, and walk 4-5km in 1980s military gear through the forests of northern Guangdong. We ran into cobra snakes several times and it was funny how students freaked out over them.
 
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MortyandRick

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Bro, I actually successfully waged a "guerrilla warfare" against my 教官 (drill sergeant) during my college military training 军训 (required for all college students in China) a little more than 10 years ago. It is not that difficult for a group of dudes who have basic training and cause mass casualties among "occupying troops" caught off guard. So my university and the PAP unit we were sent to gave us the privilege to taste what real combat would be like during the last week of our freshman year military training. We were given type 81 assault rifles with blank rounds, along with the MILES. WE "AMBUSHED AND ANNIHILATED" our drill instructor and his professional troops (revenge for all the rough times he gave us before, such as making us march under the sun for 3 hours wearing those blister-creating green coloured Liberation Shoes解放鞋). During the subsequent "battle," we captured a "fortress" guarded by professional PAP guys. Out team took around 35-40% casualty, but we were judged "victorious" for cutting off "enemies'" supply lines and taking out their frontline outpost. Even the commandant of the base (a senior colonel) suggested that my team should considered careers in the PAP, but I politely declined.

But may be you are right that in a real combat scenario, while each Taiwanese guerrilla group might be able to annihilate many PLA and PAP squads, they may eventually be compelled to lay down their arms once they run out of food and ammo. Still, the amount of casualty they could cause should not be taken lightly, especially since most PLA and PAP soldiers are single child born after 1990 (you are talking about tens and thousands of Chinese families losing their lineages and become completely devastated with no more hopes in humanity). Honestly, the same experience got me interested in IR and political science, but it also led me to detest war and killings in the name of politics. We had a fun "game" with our drill instructors using blank rounds and MILES. but I understand in a real combat scenario, it would mean destroying families and pushing countless wives and mothers to the brinks of suicides. So let's just hope that Xi, Tsai, and Biden can come up something (anything) better than killing people. I'm pretty sure there are solutions to the Taiwan and South China Sea issues beyond lethal projectiles.
Wow that’s a pretty cool experience bro! Which college did you go to and which military unit did you doing your training at? Sounds like you’re pretty skilled. Also your English is excellent for someone who grew up and went to college in China.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Why would Britain fight Germany in 1914? It is the whole Anglo-Saxon mindset about picking a fight with the strongest foe and gamble such risk would pay off to perpetuate dominance (hegemony). AND keep in mind that Americans are very ideological and use christianity to justify the necessary sacrifices necessary to maintain hegemony. Losing to Taliban does nothing to weaken US-led order, but losing to China could mean the end of the US a Pacific power. Therefore, for maritime powers, pick the strongest land powers and defeat them with the hope of perpetuating your leadership. Otherwise, once such land power were to become powerful enough to build a navy to erode your dominance it would be too late. It is also why Britain could tolerate rising powers elsewhere (US and Japan), but simply could not afford to have Germany becoming the dominant power in Europe. So yes, from a traditional maritime power's perspective, the US will fight China because it is only nation state with risk of ending US hegemony.
Then it's already too late for them to win without getting crippled, even conventionally. You have to understand that winning isn't enough. They have to win without getting crippled because they need to actually enforce their hegemony.

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They can't even deploy their carriers continuously anymore despite having 11 of them. if they lose any ships at all, can they enforce their hegemony anymore? Can they stop Russia from taking Eastern Europe? What about Iran closing the Persian Gulf? How about France leaving NATO? How about keeping Japan down?

If they have all these allies wanting to die for them how come they went from NATO down to G7 down to Quad and now down to AUKUS? Shouldn't their coalition be getting bigger not smaller?

That's just the military aspect.
 

ansy1968

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Then it's already too late for them to win without getting crippled, even conventionally. You have to understand that winning isn't enough. They have to win without getting crippled because they need to actually enforce their hegemony.

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They can't even deploy their carriers continuously anymore despite having 11 of them. if they lose any ships at all, can they enforce their hegemony anymore? Can they stop Russia from taking Eastern Europe? What about Iran closing the Persian Gulf? How about France leaving NATO? How about keeping Japan down?

If they have all these allies wanting to die for them how come they went from NATO down to G7 down to Quad and now down to AUKUS? Shouldn't their coalition be getting bigger not smaller?

That's just the military aspect.
@FairAndUnbiased bro that is the beauty of the Russian Chinese Understanding, from a low based any increase in military strength from both the US need to match it, then you add in Iran, The US had reach an Imperial overreach just like Rome on its latter part of history. With its vassals needed to be cajoled , the world is looking forward for a multi polar world with US allies among those who support it. The coming Hungarian election is a litmus test, if Orban wins re-election the cascading effect will be huge as it will affect the French election.
 

AndrewS

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China would have to pay a high price, too. Think about how many martyrs' families the government would then have to subsidize and provide affordable living standards. Also, even with government-arranged jobs and welfare, these family members would live the rest of their lives with PTSD and traumas. They could get even more traumatized when their late husbands and sons become propaganda tools. Btw I am talking about PLA and PAP casualties under the scenario in which China beat Taiwan, the US, Australia, and Japan in a conventional war, assuming a final PLA pyrrhic conventional victory (when the PLA and PAP takes up to at least 500,000 casualties). But do keep in mind that such victorious China would be under long-term multilateral economic embargo by all white nations (plus ROK and Japan) except maybe Russia (but who knows, maybe the Russian could take advantage of China's isolation as well).

I just don't see a Taiwanese resistance being able to operate in a surveillance state

Think every car and smartphone being monitored
Plus CCTV cameras covering all the urban areas
Along with constant airborne drone coverage

It's straightforward to China to do this and then automate the surveillance system
 
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