Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

  • Thread starter Deleted member 15887
  • Start date

weig2000

Captain
"So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid."
"unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang."

Deadly giveaway. LOL.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Well the risk is that the DPP always pushes things too hard when China is not yet ready to have the means to credibly invade Taiwan. For example, in 2007, the Chen Shuibian gov't pushed for UN membership when the PLA was completely unprepared and Beijing was in the mood the host the 2008 Olympic Games above everything else. Lee also proposed the two-states theory in 1996 when Beijing lacked any means of leveraging Taiwan. Now Tsai is trying to complete the de-sinicisation process, join CPTPP, and other international treaties before China has full leverage over Taiwan. By the time the PLA has the means to invade Taiwan, some 90% of the Taiwanese population would be like the Hong Kongers and the Uighurs (die-hard refusal to submit to CCP rule). So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid.

If you have been to Taiwan and see the terrain and know how kind Taiwanese are .. you will know that there is a zero chance there will be guerrilla warfare. And do you know what, PLA is the god of guerrilla warfare ;)
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you have been to Taiwan and see the terrain and know how kind Taiwanese are .. you will know that there is a zero chance there will be guerrilla warfare. And do you know what, PLA is the god of guerrilla warfare ;)
Fighting guerrilla warfare against PLA is like preaching to the choir. Chairman Mao's books on guerrilla war were read like chapter books in many African independence movements. Not long ago, PLA literally hand-held Sri Lanka to win its civil war against Tamil Tigers. The number one reason China is reluctant to use military forces to liberate Taiwan is that the Chinese don't like to kill Chinese even though many Taiwanese don't accept their racial ancestry.
 

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
taiwanese here; a lot of the ink spilled about "taiwanese guerrilla warfare" and "taiwan independence" are really projections and fantasies of the Beltway eunuchs, the matt pottingers of the world.

The island is stuck in time, specifically 2003-2010, nothing has progressed in terms of infrastructure and the living standards which once beat Japan are starting to look more and more dire; a lot of the taiwanese youth look to move to america to try their luck there not because of better prospects but because of constant media propaganda about how america is the promised land and how american born HuaQiao coming back to taiwan always assume an air of superiority, and having the bucks to assert it.

This state of affairs is non-sustainable, and i reckon the anglo beltway knows it as well, which is why they're trying to milk taiwan for all its worth, including stealing TSMC.
 

Agnus

Junior Member
Registered Member
For an insurgency to be successful against a great power, it needs supply lines that can't be cut off. In a way, it is wrong to say that US was defeated by a bunch of backward ''rice farmers'' during the Vietnam war. That implies they did it on their own without other factors in play. The Communist victory was achievable because Maoist China existed as a supply/industrial base to prop up the North Vietnamese was effort. That's why, no matter how many bombs that US dropped didn't matter because the industrial base fueling the war in China and USSR, not in Vietnam. That's why, the Japanese couldn't win. They had no industrial base beyond Japan itself. The Japanese were as fanatical as the Vietnamese if not more.
Taiwan is an island. Air drops are not enough to sustain a long time insurgency.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
A Taiwanese insurgency also has to actually believe what they are doing is just and right. What else could possibly motivate someone to endure extreme hardship, danger and punishment? An insurgency lives off of morale and conviction in the belief that they are just and moral, fighting against an evil enemy.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In the morning of 7 March 1987, a boat carrying Vietnamese refugees who had been rejected in Hong Kong earlier arrived in Kinmen requesting
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
penetrated through the sky-blue wooden
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
without
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Three unarmed Vietnamese men jumped off the boat, raised their hands, and pled in Chinese, "Don't shoot...!" but were all shot dead instantly.

The platoon members were ordered to execute any surviving refugees. The wounded were buried alive, and those who were still moving or crying were dictated to be killed by military shovels.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The entire boat was also instructed to be burned down aside from the only 3-blade propeller non-flammable to gasoline, then all buried in sand to destroy all the evidence right away. The last victim, a young boy being hidden underneath a board cell was also found and executed by order without exception. The guarding
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
of the BHQ company overnight counted the bodies as more than nineteen.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Agnus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Viet Cong used terror to keep the peasants in line and meet rice quotas. Killing innocent people doesn't mean you don't believe yourself and your side doesn't have the moral high ground.Quite the opposite, look at America as the best example.
 
Top