Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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Deino

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....

"just because Australia is going to get a nuclear powered submarines" When did Australia ever guarantee you they are going to just get a nuclear powered submarines and stop there? Didn't you hear of Australia's $1 billion investment of building its own guide missiles with hypersonic weapons?


Stop with this BS! Right that moment! ... Australia's politics and your twisted dreams are off topic here.
 

4Runner

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It seems to me that China and US have reached some compromises on Climate and Iran.

Climate and Iran were the top two accomplishments during the Obama/Biden admin.

Climate is probably the only global topic that has a chance of consensus. Paris Climate was the pinnacle of the Obama admin. Biden wants the same at COP26 later this year. China was the key at Paris. China is the key that will determine the COP26 outcomes. To Biden, Climate is a much larger issue than Meng's arrest, which was initiated by the deep state in the Trump admin.

Iran was also a high point during the Obama/Biden admin. Iran is also an extremely important political issue in the US. Since Trump admin botched Iran deal, China has obtained most leverages vis-a-vis Iran. My guess is that China will not be the blocker when US is trying to crawl back into a new Iran deal.

I predict that China/US relation is approaching to detente until after the mid-term election. We should see some easing of trade war as well as tech war in the next 10 months or so.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

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It seems to me that China and US have reached some compromises on Climate and Iran.

Climate and Iran were the top two accomplishments during the Obama/Biden admin.

Climate is probably the only global topic that has a chance of consensus. Paris Climate was the pinnacle of the Obama admin. Biden wants the same at COP26 later this year. China was the key at Paris. China is the key that will determine the COP26 outcomes. To Biden, Climate is a much larger issue than Meng's arrest, which was initiated by the deep state in the Trump admin.

Iran was also a high point during the Obama/Biden admin. Iran is also an extremely important political issue in the US. Since Trump admin botched Iran deal, China has obtained most leverages vis-a-vis Iran. My guess is that China will not be the blocker when US is trying to crawl back into a new Iran deal.

I predict that China/US relation is approaching to detente until after the mid-term election. We should see some easing of trade war as well as tech war in the next 10 months or so.
But if there is one thing that could trash the detente, COP26, and Iran deal, it would be Taiwan. The issue is that the vast majority of Taiwanese are adamant about maintaining their civic national identity and de facto independence, while Xi and the CCP would have none of that. Taiwan is also the most power foreign lobbyist in DC after Israel. Now the DPP in Taipei is doubling-down in its de-sinicisation campaign, including removing Chiang's statue and other vestiges of the KMT. At some point, this de-sinicisation campaign could cross Beijing's redline (2005 Anti-Secession Law; the clause saying when peaceful unification would no longer be achievable).

For Washington, while a military intervention in a Taiwan scenario would be ugly and unattractive, failing to defend Taiwan could mean losing Japan and Australia as allies, as the two would perceive Washington's pledges as not credible. Once these two allies start acting on their own, you are talking about the end of US hegemony, which would be unacceptable for Washington.

Xi and Biden can get drunk over climate and Iran as much as they want, but the elephant in the room is Taiwan's DPP and its lobbyists in Washington. It is THE things that will define US-China Relations for my generation, and unfortunately, there appears to be no solutions in both capitals beside a dangerous sleepwalk toward unintended conflicts. The status quo only works (like during Ma's Presidency, but it was overturned by the Sunflower Movement) if the DPP ceases its de-sinicisation campaign (entrenching independence without declaration), but anyone who studied Taiwan knows that the DPP fully represents the will of the majority on the Island.
 

hullopilllw

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But if there is one thing that could trash the detente, COP26, and Iran deal, it would be Taiwan. The issue is that the vast majority of Taiwanese are adamant about maintaining their civic national identity and de facto independence, while Xi and the CCP would have none of that. Taiwan is also the most power foreign lobbyist in DC after Israel. Now the DPP in Taipei is doubling-down in its de-sinicisation campaign, including removing Chiang's statue and other vestiges of the KMT. At some point, this de-sinicisation campaign could cross Beijing's redline (2005 Anti-Secession Law; the clause saying when peaceful unification would no longer be achievable).
Wrong. 1.4b Chinese would have none of that.

Sovereign integrity is not an issue up for discussion or negotiation.
 

Agnus

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Ironically, I think the KMT being in power would have made reunification take much longer or even not feasible. President Ma/KMT was always knew how to employ the ''One China policy'' tactically. Despite, what DPP/ Taiwanese independence think ''One China'' policy is a gift, not a nuisance. It safeguards the status quo. It give Taiwan's power to keep up the status quo on a geopolitical level. It is leverage. DPP's antics have merely accelerated a straight up annexation.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

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Ironically, I think the KMT being in power would have made reunification take much longer or even not feasible. President Ma/KMT was always knew how to employ the ''One China policy'' tactically. Despite, what DPP/ Taiwanese independence think ''One China'' policy is a gift, not a nuisance. It safeguards the status quo. It give Taiwan's power to keep up the status quo on a geopolitical level. It is leverage. DPP's antics have merely accelerated a straight up annexation.
Well the risk is that the DPP always pushes things too hard when China is not yet ready to have the means to credibly invade Taiwan. For example, in 2007, the Chen Shuibian gov't pushed for UN membership when the PLA was completely unprepared and Beijing was in the mood the host the 2008 Olympic Games above everything else. Lee also proposed the two-states theory in 1996 when Beijing lacked any means of leveraging Taiwan. Now Tsai is trying to complete the de-sinicisation process, join CPTPP, and other international treaties before China has full leverage over Taiwan. By the time the PLA has the means to invade Taiwan, some 90% of the Taiwanese population would be like the Hong Kongers and the Uighurs (die-hard refusal to submit to CCP rule). So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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So even if Beijing were to take Taiwan with overwhelming force, it would have to deal with years of guerrilla warfare, insurrections, foreign intelligence activities, etc. In other word, Taiwan could become a Tibet/Xinjiang on steroid.
HK showed that an iron fist is the best way. Look at how all that went silent from a simple law. If law was effective then I.S.A.F. should've just made Ta.li.ban illegal and stopped it - but law is most effective when backed with the implicit threat of effective force. And HK rioters knew that it was the case and smartened up.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

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Look at how all that went silent from a simple law.
I don't think those HK rioters have smartened up. Ultimately they are the majority on their own piece of land, and they are waiting for the opportunity to rise up violently again. A war with Taiwan, stock market crash, natural disaster in Southern China, etc. could all be taken as opportunities for an uprising (unless if you permanently lock up some 2 million young HKers in camps in Xinjiang of course, but it is too early to tell if the Xinjiang approach is effective as of now, not to mention the international backlash/sanctions China already receives). Another approach is to confiscate the capital that supports the rioters (such as seizure of Jimmy Lai's company or those who fund the rioters and pro-independence groups), but large-scale property confiscations could lead to a sudden exodus of much-needed foreign capital, which is what keep Hong Kong the city it is and benefits many Chinese firms as well.
 

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