Chinese semiconductor thread II

[tphuang]

There's two take-aways from the article that are concerning, assuming they're true.

The first is that Western journalists / intelligence apparently have access to insiders of the project, indicating a certain degree of infiltration by spies. Not particularly surprising if key members of the team in Shenzhen are dual citizens / former ASML employees since they'd have been top targets for Western intelligence officers.

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

You don't need to be an insider to know that this project is going on. As I said, Taylor Ogan told me that this is not exactly a secret among the tech community in Shenzhen. There is a lot of people that know about this project. People just don't talk much about it, that's all. But if you consider the earlier FT articles about Arfi scanners a couple of months ago, those are just from other people in the Shenzhen tech scene.

 

[leibowitz]

There's two take-aways from the article that are concerning, assuming they're true.

The first is that Western journalists / intelligence apparently have access to insiders of the project, indicating a certain degree of infiltration by spies. Not particularly surprising if key members of the team in Shenzhen are dual citizens / former ASML employees since they'd have been top targets for Western intelligence officers.

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

Honestly, would be great if they started firing and interrogating all the ASML employees of Chinese descent at this point. Just purge them all. Especially the ones working on stochastic defects for across different kinds of EUV photoresists and manufacturing EUVL optics. Revoke their citizenship too and seize their houses and retirement accounts. Take away every reason they have to stay in the West

 

[henrik]

Which means they did not price the IPO correctly. IPO should be priced to ensure the stock price increase a little bit but not more than 100% increase. Recent Chinese Chip stocks are all priced way under during ipo. That's why they are skyrocketing.

They are priced correctly by the promoter. There is no way that the early investors will leave too much money on the table for small investors.

 

[henrik]

There's two take-aways from the article that are concerning, assuming they're true.

The first is that Western journalists / intelligence apparently have access to insiders of the project, indicating a certain degree of infiltration by spies. Not particularly surprising if key members of the team in Shenzhen are dual citizens / former ASML employees since they'd have been top targets for Western intelligence officers.

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

So western people will also find more paths closed in the Chinese world. A reduction in rare earths exports to asml and their suppliers would restrict their business.

 

[iewgnem]

There's two take-aways from the article that are concerning, assuming they're true.

The first is that Western journalists / intelligence apparently have access to insiders of the project, indicating a certain degree of infiltration by spies. Not particularly surprising if key members of the team in Shenzhen are dual citizens / former ASML employees since they'd have been top targets for Western intelligence officers.

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

They're not even aware of EUV light source prototype published on CIOMP's official website from 2 years ago, and they still have no idea about openly published work on Chinese EUV optics, photoresist, and all the peripheral etching and handling equipment. You can almost say the west fears sending spies and finding what they don't want to find, more than China fears western spies learning what China already publish in the open.

 

[latenlazy]

Reading the crap that Reuters wrote is giving me J-20 vibes in 2011, when every single "Aviation Expert" was saying that China would test their first stealth aircraft in 2030 and when China tested their J-20 almost 20 years earlier they switched to drink the "China Espionage" copium medicine in large quantities.

Even thought if you go to the research literature you could find China was making advances in stealth since the mid 90s.

It’s like if a bunch of know nothing gossip queens tried to explain how planes work based on what they heard from their fortune teller.

 

[latenlazy]

There's two take-aways from the article that are concerning, assuming they're true.

The first is that Western journalists / intelligence apparently have access to insiders of the project, indicating a certain degree of infiltration by spies. Not particularly surprising if key members of the team in Shenzhen are dual citizens / former ASML employees since they'd have been top targets for Western intelligence officers.

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

The quality of the reporting does not suggest that they have any special secret access. They’re basically publishing tabloid style gossip from 3rd hand sources. Someone else’s speculation being presented as verified facts because a reporter calls he said she said “confirmed sources”.

 

[Weaasel]

well, I guess people in the West has finally caught on. I mean Taylor Ogan mentioned it on Steve Hsu's podcast a while back. The facility itself is somewhere in Dongguan IIRC. But yeah, it's not a secret to people in Shenzhen tech scene.

Tphuang, speaking on the issue so casually as though it were as obvious as China dominates rare earths, that's a new one...

 

[tokenanalyst]

They're not even aware of EUV light source prototype published on CIOMP's official website from 2 years ago, and they still have no idea about openly published work on Chinese EUV optics, photoresist, and all the peripheral etching and handling equipment. You can almost say the west fears sending spies and finding what they don't want to find, more than China fears western spies learning what China already publish in the open.

Or worst, they just dismiss it alright.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The second is the claim that China could not have done this without "former ASML employees [of Chinese descent.]" If this becomes the narrative in the West, then expect them to ban people of Chinese descent (not just citizens) from working on sensitive technologies in the future. It's probably too late to stop China's EUV efforts, but people of Chinese descent will definitely find more paths closed in the Western world.

China would love to see Chinese top talents getting shunned in the west and coming back to China. Their biggest problem remains brain drain. This is even more true for chokepoint tech fields such as chip manufacturing where lots of PRC/Han Chinese descent people work in these fields. If they come back, they will come back with massive knowhow and can boost China's catchup in a big way.

Trump's prosecution of Chinese profs did more for China's self-reliance efforts than anything financial incentives could achieve.