China demographics thread.

[voyager1]

How quickly things move from the apocalyptic 'yellow locusts devouring the world' to a catastrophic and calamitous 'getting old before getting wealthily'

Knee jerk reactions much.....

This is probably a long time coming, if you subscribe to the notion that the foundation of the modern (post 1978) Chinese state and its economy was just China copying Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore then the after effects should be largely the same (simple cause and effect) well standing at 1.1 Singapore's current fertility rate has dropped from 4.66 when it split from Malaysia in 1965, so I guess they are!

So where's the wannabe Gordon Chang novel about the coming fall of Singapore?

Since that's not on message how about 'Islamic China', after all birth rate amongst Uyghurs is so much higher than the Han! We can do the Chinese version of the 'browning of America' the KKK, dog whistle politics, kids in cages etc the BBC/CNN would love that one just waiting for that new narrative to appear, consistent messaging be damned (isn't there a Uyghur genocide going on!), After all since yellow is the new black, I guess Islam could be the new communism!

As we say where my forebears are from a serious case of 船頭驚鬼船尾驚賊

Did the Singapore's TFR hit 1.1 when it was poor or when it is already super rich now? Doubt that it was the first

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Actually the data is much better than expected and TFR of 1.3 is higher than in previous censuses. And the population is higher than previously estimated, so most likely census revealed previously unaccounted births.

It also means that there are usually more children than firstly registered so catastrophic data from these figures are not real. (police data)

But we have to be clear, TFR of censuses from 2000, 2010, and current are bad. I think the policy should be to try to move from current 1.3 and falling to 1.6 and stable.

1.6 is not replacement level, but not very bad. And in today people's social lives resonable.

I am a bit relieved seeing the results of 2020 census. Will look more into the data when I'll have time.

 

[Xizor]

My point was a fairly simple one. The claims of the US being a multiethnic state being destabilizing for the US achieving power outcomes aren't true. California has been min-maj for a while and it's one of the largest contributors to US power

I'm going to proceed with the assumption that you pine for ethno-cultural unity.

California is losing power. If the past 5 years of South Western US have any thing to note, it's the fact that the living conditions and quality of life of California has become worse. Texas has received many Californian who see the state as a welfare state that exists purely for the Silicon Valley techno elites/middle class.

I believe that a lot of "political correctness" tend to gloss over certain issues plaguing Cali. US certainly is looking at a weakened state if being multi ethnic.

 

[Xizor]

I read that China would be removing any kinds of restriction on Child bearing sometime around 2022/2023.
Better late than never.

Blame it on
0. One Child Policy
1. Work life balance
2. Apartment lifestyle
3. Cultural leaning

 

[BrightFuture]

The biggest killer to birthrate is female education and urbanisation. Such is life, you win some you lose some.

I completely disagree. The biggest killer is long working hours and poor salaries (even for some high educated workers).

TFR of 1.3 is a bad number. This means China has already reached Japanese TFR levels without attaining the corresponding wealth.
This is the consequence of unbridled Capitalism. When people start thinking about costs of bearing and raising a child even before conceiving then the result will be this.
Many here defend 996 culture claiming its best for the economy. When you mentally and physically drain a person then he has absolutely no motivation to give birth .
People here also defend low wages for workers and defend billionaires by saying that its good for efficiency. When a person can barely give a quality life for himself then why on earth would he bring a child onto this planet.

To arrest this decline requires a sleuth of corrective measures specifically tackling the ills of Capitalism.

This. Me and my girlfriend are a good example. We both have good jobs, one of us even works in a Chinese state owned company related to something usually discussed in this forum (I won't get into details for obvious reasons). We both want to have kids and we would be having them if it wasn't because the costs (despite being highly educated workers) and long working hours. I'm sure we are not the only ones in China in this situation.

That being said, I trust the CPC, and I'm sure they are aware of this problem. I just wish that they started to tackle the problems and contradictions of capitalism faster.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

I'm going to proceed with the assumption that you pine for ethno-cultural unity.

California is losing power. If the past 5 years of South Western US have any thing to note, it's the fact that the living conditions and quality of life of California has become worse. Texas has received many Californian who see the state as a welfare state that exists purely for the Silicon Valley techno elites/middle class.

I believe that a lot of "political correctness" tend to gloss over certain issues plaguing Cali. US certainly is looking at a weakened state if being multi ethnic.

Texas is majority-minority as well

 

[Kaeshmiri]

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China will fully lift family planning policy in the near future to cope with the declining birth rate, and China is likely to remove its family planning policy as early as this autumn during the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Fully lifting the family planning policy will not be enough to avert a fall in China's total population, or prevent China from becoming another Japan, demographers said, noting that China should come up with more measures to encourage childbirth, such as subsidizing couples who choose to have more than one child.

 

[Xizor]

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Surely there must be some reason for them not to lift the restrictions soon enough. Job growth is one. Limited resources is another... What else?

One just hopes that "lose of face" for the party or its past decision isn't the factor that was the hindrance. If that's the case then it's not bright for China, sadly.

 

[voyager1]

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Drop 996, increase social welfare(especially for women), increase childcare centers (super important). Drop the old school system where the parents are stressed educating their children etc

 

[Xizor]

Drop 996, increase social welfare(especially for women), increase childcare centers (super important). Drop the old school system where the parents are stressed educating their children etc

Isn't 996 a contributing factor for China's competitiveness?

If China drops 996 but ASEAN countries don't?