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Deleted member 15949
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Anyone who is 65 years old in China would have been counted in the previous census.
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China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
the proportion of 65+ has risen from 8.87% to 13.5%Anyone who is 65 years old in China would have been counted in the previous census.
Fertility rate for 2020 should be an outlier if you're taking the numbers at face value.Lmao did anyone bother to read the data instead of the headlines?
I dont know about you, but to me this is "very deep concern" level
Of course there should be considerable panic if it keeps falling from there. Maybe more so since people are panicking already.
Its not only fertility rate. IMO the most important is the share of near or at working population. Is has fallen down dramaticallyFertility rate for 2020 should be an outlier if you're taking the numbers at face value.
Of course there should be considerable panic if it keeps falling from there. Maybe more so since people are panicking already.
D
Deleted member 15949
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Yeah, kinda a mathematical certainty when TFR was higher in decades past than it is now.the proportion of 65+ has risen from 8.87% to 13.5%
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Deleted member 15949
Guest
Most births in 2020 (every birth prior to September) would reflect activity in 2019Fertility rate for 2020 should be an outlier if you're taking the numbers at face value.
Of course there should be considerable panic if it keeps falling from there. Maybe more so since people are panicking already.
I think it's a 2.5 months range for possible deferred births.Most births in 2020 (every birth prior to September) would reflect activity in 2019
Don't get me wrong, I still think the numbers are bad, and will get worse.
Napkin maths says the TFR is almost certainly under 1.5 if 2020 was a normal year.
TFR of 1.3 is a bad number. This means China has already reached Japanese TFR levels without attaining the corresponding wealth.Lmao did anyone bother to read the data instead of the headlines?
I dont know about you, but to me this is "very deep concern" level
This is the consequence of unbridled Capitalism. When people start thinking about costs of bearing and raising a child even before conceiving then the result will be this.
Many here defend 996 culture claiming its best for the economy. When you mentally and physically drain a person then he has absolutely no motivation to give birth .
People here also defend low wages for workers and defend billionaires by saying that its good for efficiency. When a person can barely give a quality life for himself then why on earth would he bring a child onto this planet.
To arrest this decline requires a sleuth of corrective measures specifically tackling the ills of Capitalism.
Lets say it frankly.TFR of 1.3 is a bad number. This means China has already reached Japanese TFR levels without attaining the corresponding wealth.
This is the consequence of unbridled Capitalism. When people start thinking about costs of bearing and raising a child even before conceiving then the result will be this.
Many here defend 996 culture claiming its best for the economy. When you mentally and physically drain a person then he has absolutely no motivation to give birth .
People here also defend low wages for workers and defend billionaires by saying that its good for efficiency. When a person can barely give a quality life for himself then why on earth would he bring a child onto this planet.
To arrest this decline requires a sleuth of corrective measures specifically tackling the ills of Capitalism.
1.3 is a catastrophic number. At least Japan managed to get rich before the population declining hit them
China is still poor and the population crisis has already impacted it. See the declining share of working population. To me, this shows that the population dividend has run out and China now needs productivity growth to pick up significantly in order to cover for the declining working population
How quickly things move from the apocalyptic 'yellow locusts devouring the world' to a catastrophic and calamitous 'getting old before getting wealthily'
Knee jerk reactions much.....
This is probably a long time coming, if you subscribe to the notion that the foundation of the modern (post 1978) Chinese state and its economy was just China copying Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore then the after effects should be largely the same (simple cause and effect) well standing at 1.1 Singapore's current fertility rate has dropped from 4.66 when it split from Malaysia in 1965, so I guess they are!
So where's the wannabe Gordon Chang novel about the coming fall of Singapore?
Since that's not on message how about 'Islamic China', after all birth rate amongst Uyghurs is so much higher than the Han! We can do the Chinese version of the 'browning of America' the KKK, dog whistle politics, kids in cages etc the BBC/CNN would love that one just waiting for that new narrative to appear, consistent messaging be damned (isn't there a Uyghur genocide going on!), After all since yellow is the new black, I guess Islam could be the new communism!
As we say where my forebears are from a serious case of 船頭驚鬼船尾驚賊
Knee jerk reactions much.....
This is probably a long time coming, if you subscribe to the notion that the foundation of the modern (post 1978) Chinese state and its economy was just China copying Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore then the after effects should be largely the same (simple cause and effect) well standing at 1.1 Singapore's current fertility rate has dropped from 4.66 when it split from Malaysia in 1965, so I guess they are!
So where's the wannabe Gordon Chang novel about the coming fall of Singapore?
Since that's not on message how about 'Islamic China', after all birth rate amongst Uyghurs is so much higher than the Han! We can do the Chinese version of the 'browning of America' the KKK, dog whistle politics, kids in cages etc the BBC/CNN would love that one just waiting for that new narrative to appear, consistent messaging be damned (isn't there a Uyghur genocide going on!), After all since yellow is the new black, I guess Islam could be the new communism!
As we say where my forebears are from a serious case of 船頭驚鬼船尾驚賊