China demographics thread.

tygyg1111

Senior Member
Registered Member
So with this, even the lowest fertility US racial group (and the highest-income racial group) has TFRs that are way above anything seen in East Asia since Asians aren't covered in the report
Aren't asians the highest income group in the us?
 

Chilled_k6

Junior Member
Registered Member
Majority of Chinese agree that China has too many people and want the population to decrease. It'll certainly help reduce competition and life will be more relaxing. The Chinese workforce is down from it's peak by more than 40 million, but still much larger than it was at 2000. From a national level view, it'll be best to delay population decline as much as possible to provide more margin, especially in this time period of great geopolitical competition.

Anyway, in the short to mid term, if China can first recover the birth rate back up to pre-covid 2019 levels (~10 births per 1000), that would help a lot with a healthier trend and will keep the population growing slowly, at least till about 2030. That's still a low number but for that to happen, it's a 33% in birth rates increase from last year. IMO that's a big challenge.

China's death rate is still pretty low (~7 deaths per 1000) but that'll go up a lot in the next decade, especially late 2030s as the large cohort born in the 1960s pass away. The population will start dropping multiple millions per year after 2030, maybe 10 million+ per year in the late 2030s into the 2040s. If China's birth rate doesn't recover at all from the current state, late 2020s you'll see population decrease million+.
 

mros1

New Member
Registered Member
The East Asian levels of birth rates should show that it isn't just economic development that causes birth rates to decline: South Korea, Japan and China all have GDP per capita's that are lower than the US and many other Western countries but even then, East Asian countries birth rates are lower than even US non-Hispanic white women
 

KYli

Brigadier
Of course it is economic development that causes birth rate to decline but feminism movement that got twisted and hijacked in East Asia also play a role.

As for why US and EU white women have higher birth rate, the answer is quite simple. Japan, SK and China achieved their successes and development through hardwork but most of these other countries enjoyed their quality of life due to their imperial past and robbing of resources from their colonies.

Most of these Western countries have enjoyed their first mover advantages and better quality of life as they still can tap in their stranglehold on the rest of the world through their controls of technology, trade, finance, military, color revolution, NGO, and ideology. That's why they can enjoy better welfare which give them more incentives and less burden to have babies. In addition, religion also plays a role in the US. However, more women have seemed to move away from religion so the impact of religion would decrease.

However, I would say that the welfare and technological stranglehold that Western powers that enjoyed is slowly eroded. If their quality of life and economy decrease further, then it is likely that their birth rate would also decrease.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The East Asian levels of birth rates should show that it isn't just economic development that causes birth rates to decline: South Korea, Japan and China all have GDP per capita's that are lower than the US and many other Western countries but even then, East Asian countries birth rates are lower than even US non-Hispanic white women
This incarnation of sleepy is a particularly bad one.

Japan and South Korea both are both high GDP per capita countries. Comparing them to America does them a disservice as America has one of the highest GDP per capitas in the world. By that logic the UK or France aren't economically developed.,

Also, America also has one of the highest fertility rates in the western world. Because of the fact a significant portion of the population lives in rural more religious states. Compare fertility rates between red states and blue states in America. There is no equivalent of the bible belt in western Europe.

The differences in fertility between Japan/SK and western Europe are entirely down to immigrant populations. Migrants have more children which boosts national fertility rates, and Japan/SK/Taiwan have very low immigration comparatively.

If you wanted to use an example of a country having poor economic development and low fertility rates you could have used any eastern Europe/ex USSR country. But for some reason you have a fetish for those countries.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Could you please post something more stupid? I feel that your contribution here and around SDF in general is of such a high calibre that you must balance it out with some stupidity simply for the Universe to be in alignment.
Lol, from my conversations and when I look at e.g. the group of friends of my girlfriend it looks exactly like the thesis this guy said which in my opinion higher education urban population is very often anti-natal and not so much into marriage.

Within the group of friends(girls) of my girlfriend 1 got married, and few months later she got the baby and she was the only one who really wanted and was kinda traditional. And all the friends of this traditional girl from the "group" were against this marriage and trying to persuade that girl not to marry and have a baby, lol.

If you want tfr to rise you need to change the urban culture/lifestyle.

We'll see in 5 years, cause all of them will be 30 years at that time, and it is a time when people often get together but I have the feeling if half of them at that time would have been married it will be miracle.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lol, from my conversations and when I look at e.g. the group of friends of my girlfriend it looks exactly like the thesis this guy said which in my opinion higher education urban population is very often anti-natal and not so much into marriage.

Within the group of friends(girls) of my girlfriend 1 got married, and few months later she got the baby and she was the only one who really wanted and was kinda traditional. And all the friends of this traditional girl from the "group" were against this marriage and trying to persuade that girl not to marry and have a baby, lol.

If you want tfr to rise you need to change the urban culture/lifestyle.

We'll see in 5 years, cause all of them will be 30 years at that time, and it is a time when people often get together but I have the feeling if half of them at that time would have been married it will be miracle.
its similar in other cultures though. Poland has a rock bottom fertility rate too despite being Catholic at 1.36.

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So clearly there's commonalities in the cause of low birth rate that are culturally agnostic or even actively suppressing native culture.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
its similar in other cultures though. Poland has a rock bottom fertility rate too despite being Catholic at 1.36.

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So clearly there's commonalities in the cause of low birth rate that are culturally agnostic or even actively suppressing native culture.
Their young people have been going to west Europe and the UK for like multiple decades. Unless that graph takes that into effect i wouldn't put much trust into it.
 
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