China demographics thread.

[FairAndUnbiased]

Their young people have been going to west Europe and the UK for like multiple decades. Unless that graph takes that into effect.

western Europe likewise has low fertility rate though, so it still transcends culture. And the net migration rate is listed as -0.33/1000, which isn't too bad. Don't know where they got that from though, since Wikipedia's own webpage reports different at -1.7/1000 which is devastating

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[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

its similar in other cultures though. Poland has a rock bottom fertility rate too despite being Catholic at 1.36.

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So clearly there's commonalities in the cause of low birth rate that are culturally agnostic or even actively suppressing native culture.

Yes, I believe overall that modern lifestyle and especially urban lifestyle makes people don't want children all over the world.

Poland has similar urban population as China, and the religion there is kinda for a face infront of family, it's not like Israel or Muslim countries where religion is very connected to births.

I think to raise a births bit you need to change the lifestyle culture or make some crazy social benefits, like e.g. 3 years maternity leave in Czech Republic, lol.

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[manqiangrexue]

Lol, from my conversations and when I look at e.g. the group of friends of my girlfriend it looks exactly like the thesis this guy said which in my opinion higher education urban population is very often anti-natal and not so much into marriage.

Within the group of friends(girls) of my girlfriend 1 got married, and few months later she got the baby and she was the only one who really wanted and was kinda traditional. And all the friends of this traditional girl from the "group" were against this marriage and trying to persuade that girl not to marry and have a baby, lol.

If you want tfr to rise you need to change the urban culture/lifestyle.

We'll see in 5 years, cause all of them will be 30 years at that time, and it is a time when people often get together but I have the feeling if half of them at that time would have been married it will be miracle.

I think it's more of a guy problem. Men are more and more effeminate and small in a corporate world, scared to offend anyone as that might harm their promotion/career chances. Women still have prehistoric instinct and want a strong willed man to lead her despite society telling her that she is his equal now. I've never dated a Chinese girl who didn't want to get married or have kids, but then again, there is strong selection bias because I don't generally talk to girls I don't want to date and if we do get into a conversation that deep, then she's likely interested and therefore partial to romantic relationships. Ironically, my wife is the first girl I've met who said she doesn't want to have kids because caring for them is too difficult and is indifferent about marriage... she also said she wanted to stay in the US after graduation. I told her that's all nonsense because as Chinese PhDs, we have a responsibility to go back home and have 3-4 healthy babies for our country. We're going to XiongAn and she's about to start her next IVF cycle with 1 baby in a surrogate mom (it would really really be a shame to mess up her figure with 4 kids so I said I could swing it with the IVF costs) currently. Looking to do 4 by Dragon year.

So, it's really where the man leads her. A woman, if met by a man with shaking hands, sunken chest, "suggesting" maybe they get a coffee or something sometime, can be anti-marriage and hardcore feminist. Same woman, met by a man who exercises, tells her to cancel her plans because he's got something better and promises to be her captain for life leading their family to success and happiness, can turn into a loving wife and mother.

I think the key to increased fertility rate and general social happiness lies in male education.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Marriage is not important for Chinese girls nowadays.

I just watched the video and it's not bad at all. Straight off the bat, all of them wanted romantic relationships. The toughest ones are the ones who say they like to be single because they can take care of themselves and don't need anything from anyone. Even those can be cracked by a guy with the right approach and armament (though sometimes, it's because they're bitter from being the ugly one so nobody wants to crack 'em anyway...). These are young girls, most of whom directly acknowledging wanting to be married eventually to the right guy. Only 1 girl said she wanted to date but never marry and she was 19!! WTF do 19 year olds know? She probably thought it was cool or some shit. She's gonna take 2 seconds for a confident "alpha" to turn into a very willing wife and mother and that's if she doesn't do a 180 by herself before 27.

When I was dating my wife and she said she didn't want to have kids, I just laughed and laughed and then I told her, "The deer don't choose if they wanna get shot. It's the hunter's call." She thought that was so misogynistic and got mad and I just grabbed her and bear hugged her and tickled her until she was laughing with me. Good times, good times!

Couple months later, while I was feeding my fat orange bastard of a bearded dragon, she just randomly said to me, "I'm gonna give you the biggest compliment I'm ever gonna give and you're ever gonna get: I want kids with you." Took me by surprise; almost got bit, not because I'm shocked she changed but because that was one hell of a compliment. I never took her seriously when she said she didn't wanna have kids.

There is nothing in that video that troubles me. Those girls are the right level for modern society, ready to get married when the right guy presents himself, but not desperate to go with anyone.

 

[Lethe]

Just something I thought some folk here might be interested in. The tale is a little more nuanced than the fertility collapse/ageing population narrative we are all familiar with.



Projection data comes from 2022 UN World Population Prospects, median projection series.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Just something I thought some folk here might be interested in. The tale is a little more nuanced than the fertility collapse/ageing population narrative we are all familiar with.

View attachment 103239

Projection data comes from 2022 UN World Population Prospects, median projection series.

Everybody's dependency ratio rises except America's. Imagine that. Someday America might tell us where it found the fountain of youth.

What garbage data.

Edit: I was wrong, this isn't data. It's just worthless speculation.

 

[Lethe]

Everybody's dependency ratio rises except America's. Imagine that. Someday America might tell us where it found the fountain of youth.

What garbage data.

Except that America's dependency ratio is going up, and continues to do so beyond the period I have charted. Importing a steady supply of people who are both poorer (i.e. prone to greater fertility) and younger than the average American will tend to cushion such trends to be sure, but they are still there.

Much more important is that China's low fertility and ageing population that so concern folks here will not seriously affect the total relationship between dependents/non-dependents for some time. China's demographics are indeed becoming more challenging over time, but there is no imminent collapse as some folks fear and others hope. It's really a challenge for the post-2050 era. Folks in Washington salivating over the idea that demographic challenges are going to upset China's economic trajectory are going to be disappointed.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Except that America's dependency ratio is going up, and continues to do so beyond the period I have charted. Importing a steady supply of people who are both poorer and younger than the average American will tend to cushion such trends to be sure, but they are still there.

Much more important is that China's low fertility and ageing population that so concern folks here will not seriously affect the total relationship between dependents/non-dependents for some time. China's demographics are indeed becoming more challenging over time, but there is no imminent collapse as some folks fear and others hope.

The issue I have is that the demographic "problems" the haters prattle on about and the responses to them are both founded on nothing. The idea that anybody can project what will happen to a population four decades from now is pseudoscience. Frankly speaking, the entire field of demographics is riddled with pseudoscience, if not entirely so. Four decades isn't even the most egregious thing they do, I've seen predictions to 2100. How can anyone call himself a demographer with a straight face and get paid to do this?

How do these people know immigrants will keep flowing into the US? That's a political question whose answer can't be predicted. How do they know what birth rates will look like 10 years from now, let alone 40?

That's just within the normal bounds of uncertainty. How can they know that over the long term radical interventions like what I've proposed earlier in the thread won't be adopted?

China demographics thread.

2021 TFR in China by province

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

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"Facts" about China's population... in 2100.

 

[Lethe]

The issue I have is that the demographic "problems" the haters prattle on about and the responses to them are both founded on nothing. The idea that anybody can project what will happen to a population four decades from now is pseudoscience.

Demographic projections 20 years out are probably subject to less uncertainty than economic projections 5 years out, yet nobody seems to think that medium-term economic planning is ludicrous. The demographic characteristics of the next generation are more or less baked in according to the characteristics of the current population, and those are known. Obviously the level of uncertainty increases the further one extrapolates, hence I limited the chart to 2060.

How do these people know immigrants will keep flowing into the US? That's a political question whose answer can't be predicted.

Who is to say that ten years from now China will not have devolved into a dozen warring states with little to no influence on world affairs? Perhaps we should simply close the forum rather than speculate as to an unknown and unknowable future. Will the sun rise in the sky tomorrow?

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