ARM cuts ties with Huawei, threatening future chip designs

Jura said:

and in the meantime
Huawei says US ban will cost it $30 billion in lost sales over two years

Updated 9:41 AM ET, Mon June 17, 2019

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Why is this a reply to me, Jura? Once again, when you reply to me, please have it be a continuation of our conversation, not just something else you think I would like to comment on. If it's that, just post it, I will see it, and comment on it if I have anything to say.

You really want a comment out of me on this? LOL OK, So, $30 billion over 2 years or $15 billion a year is a ~15% drop and he factored growth into it as well. Revenue was $104B in 2018 and he said he's predicting $100B in 2019, 2020. There was a 40% reduction in overseas phone sales. Both these numbers are better what I was personally thinking. I thought Huawei might lose a big chunk (maybe at least a third?) of its total revenue at first before it regrew under its HongMeng and its new supply line. I was thinking Huawei could lose 40% or more of total phone sales (because 50% of its sales are to the Chinese market and would be much more insulated). The study in Malaysia showed that close to a third of the population was willing to switch to HongMeng, which was a pleasant surprise because I thought HongMeng might be much more solid in China due to love for Huawei but it would start from a very low point in the international market. I was predicted a single digit start in the EU and still am unless I see differently.

So actually if Huawei does perform to $100 billion in the next 2 years, that would be quite nice and represent an actual drop close to 0% compared to 2018, which is more optimistic than I would have thought. I never thought this would be a minor factor in Huawei's phone sales on the international market; I thought this would be huge, but the new Huawei that could emerge would be truly a Chinese company and that would be well worth the near-term losses.

manqiangrexue said:

Why is this a reply to me, Jura?

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because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming we talked about in the previous page, and I'm intrigued about what name(s) you'd come up with

but now I see you appear to be content with how things are for Huawei, naming or not:

manqiangrexue said:

Once again, when you reply to me, please have it be a continuation of our conversation, not just something else you think I would like to comment on. If it's that, just post it, I will see it, and comment on it if I have anything to say.

You really want a comment out of me on this? LOL OK, So, $30 billion over 2 years or $15 billion a year is a ~15% drop and he factored growth into it as well. Revenue was $104B in 2018 and he said he's predicting $100B in 2019, 2020. There was a 40% reduction in overseas phone sales. Both these numbers are better what I was personally thinking. I thought Huawei might lose a big chunk (maybe at least a third?) of its total revenue at first before it regrew under its HongMeng and its new supply line. I was thinking Huawei could lose 40% or more of total phone sales (because 50% of its sales are to the Chinese market and would be much more insulated). The study in Malaysia showed that close to a third of the population was willing to switch to HongMeng, which was a pleasant surprise because I thought HongMeng might be much more solid in China due to love for Huawei but it would start from a very low point in the international market. I was predicted a single digit start in the EU and still am unless I see differently.

So actually if Huawei does perform to $100 billion in the next 2 years, that would be quite nice and represent an actual drop close to 0% compared to 2018, which is more optimistic than I would have thought. I never thought this would be a minor factor in Huawei's phone sales on the international market; I thought this would be huge, but the new Huawei that could emerge would be truly a Chinese company and that would be well worth the near-term losses.

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Jura said:

because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming we talked about in the previous page, and I'm intrigued about what name(s) you'd come up with

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1. And how is that related to the article you posted?
2. Why would you continue this after I said I wouldn't waste my time with it unless under Huawei's request?

manqiangrexue said:

1. And how is that related to the article you posted?

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the article left me with an impression as if Huawei needed help

manqiangrexue said:

2. Why would you continue this after I said I wouldn't waste my time with it unless under Huawei's request?

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9 minutes ago I said "because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming ..." etc.,
meaning you'd change your mind from Yesterday at 9:36 PM

manqiangrexue said:

No, I wont. I meant if Huawei asked me to do it, I could in a few hours. Without that, I'm just wasting my time.

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Jura said:

the article left me with an impression as if Huawei needed help

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Let me get this straight: I said I wouldn't waste my time making up names nobody would use so you posted an article saying Huawei could face $30B in lost sales because you thought that a rational reaction to that on my part would be to take out a piece of paper and start making up playstore names to "help" them? That is a normal reaction where you come from?

Jura said:

I said "because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming"
meaning you'd change your mind from Yesterday at 9:36 PM

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Next time, don't assume I'd change my mind unless I say so. You wouldn't like people bothering you asking everyday asking if you changed your mind on what you just said yesterday, would you?

Stop wasting everybody's time with this crap.

Jura said:

the article left me with an impression as if Huawei needed help



9 minutes ago I said "because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming ..." etc.,
meaning you'd change your mind from Yesterday at 9:36 PM

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First of all, Huawei, as well as the Chinese nation do not need help. Not because we would not want help, but we will not rely on help. No body who ever had the intention of helping us actually helped, regardless of how much effort they put in. I don't mean to sound ungrateful, but I don't think it is healthy for one side to think they has somehow "helped" the other side, and the other side is indebted; simply because this is not true. And things that are not true, will harm he who believes in it.

manqiangrexue said:

And you think that a random person on the internet making up names would be helpful?


Next time, don't assume I'd change my mind unless I say so. You wouldn't like people bothering you asking everyday asking if you changed your mind on what you just said yesterday, would you?

Stop wasting everybody's time with this crap.

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LOL
I was curious what name, even better than "HongMeng Playstore", you'd be able to create and possibly offer to Huawei

Jura said:

the article left me with an impression as if Huawei needed help



9 minutes ago I said "because I had thought you after all might want to help Huawei with naming ..." etc.,
meaning you'd change your mind from Yesterday at 9:36 PM

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Yes, America will harm China in big ways. Yes, America is strong than China right now. But you better give up believing that such threats will destroy our will to fight back or to stop resisting. We might be the smaller guy in the ring, but we are willing to fight to the death. Flaunting your success in damaging us might inflate your ego, but that's pretty much all it will do, because our will is unwavering. Time will tell you who and what we are. In the mean time, flaunt your arrogance, rub it in our face, shame us, abuse us as much as you can. Because soon the time will come when you will never again dare to face us.

jimmyjames30x30 said:

First of all, Huawei, as well as the Chinese nation do not need help. Not because we would not want help, but we will not rely on help. No body who ever had the intention of helping us actually helped, regardless of how much effort they put in. I don't mean to sound ungrateful, but I don't think it is healthy for one side to think they has somehow "helped" the other side, and the other side is indebted; simply because this is not true. And things that are not true, will harm he who believes in it.

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I'm just having another look at ARM. They have costs of $1.2B per year.

So one could reasonably expect that if Huawei were to spend $1.2B per year, Huawei would eventually come up with an alternative.
But the problem is that this takes time, needs design software and relevant human expertise.

Huawei's results in 2018 were:


Revenue: $107B
Costs: $98.3B (of which $15B was R&D)
Profit: $8.7B

So if revenue is drop slightly to $100B in 2019 and 2020, that would suggest that Huawei can still afford to increased R&D spending in 2019 and then 2020,

After all, Huawei has no choice but to do replace US technology that it can't buy.

Jura said:

LOL
I was curious what name, even better than "HongMeng Playstore", you'd be able to create and possibly offer to Huawei

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I don't care. When someone tells you it's a waste of time and they won't do it, you need to accept it and move on instead of using nonsensical strategies to try to draw it out of them.