Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy


AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
This is gonna be the greatest fight of the century, and will last well after we are dead and likely stretch into the 22nd century. Any potential improvements under Biden (which I doubt) would be quickly undone by the next administration and the general power clash between peer western and non-western nations.

A cold war is not all that bad though, it forces all countries involved to devote ever more resources into R&D and industrial developments. Our lives would not be as comfortable nor would we have an understanding of the world and science that we do had it not been for the advances made in WWII and the subsequent cold war.

For one, we will likely see an acceleration to towards the roboticization of all aspects of Chinese life and society by 2030.

I don't think there's any need for exaggeration.

If we go by the Australian government white paper estimates, the Chinese economy would be twice the size of the US by 2035.
Plus China will have caught up in terms of world-class technology.

Then China should be able to reach 3x larger in another 10-15 years, given that the average Chinese person would only be half as *rich* as the average American. That is what happens when you have 4x the population.

And it would be impossible to contain the Chinese economy in such a situation.
For example, the Japan-China relationship would be similar to that of Canada-USA, given the disparity in power.

So I reckon the competition will over by 2050 at the latest, and that it'll be relatively easy for China by that point.
 
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quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is gonna be the greatest fight of the century, and will last well after we are dead and likely stretch into the 22nd century. Any potential improvements under Biden (which I doubt) would be quickly undone by the next administration and the general power clash between peer western and non-western nations.

A cold war is not all that bad though, it forces all countries involved to devote ever more resources into R&D and industrial developments. Our lives would not be as comfortable nor would we have an understanding of the world and science that we do had it not been for the advances made in WWII and the subsequent cold war.

For one, we will likely see an acceleration to towards the roboticization of all aspects of Chinese life and society by 2030.
Yes the whole demographic issue is a nonstarter. China doesnt have to worry about the age problem at all, AI/UBI is the future... reduce population, increase nuke per capita...

I dont see the Cold War lasting very long... by 2050 China will either have pulled way ahead in all respects or America would have long succeeded in collapsing China..

Certainly it will last the majority of the prime years of someone in their 20s and 30s thats for sure...
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
By 2080, yes it can. Russia’s two problems are lack of arable land in the Far East due to permafrost, and lack of man power.

A warming planet solves both problems. In the next few decades after 2050 we are going to see mass migration of people from Mexico, United States into Canada, and from China, south East asia into Russia.

Russia is going to become a superpower in terms of food production Its GDP will be 5x current levels by 2080- 2100.

For any modern economy, Agriculture only accounts for less than 3% of GDP or employment.
The conclusion is that a modern wealthy economy is based on manufacturing and services, not agriculture.

Russia is xenophobic enough that it doesn't want large numbers of immigrants moving to Siberia.

So I doubt we will see the mass people movements you imagine.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
By 2080, yes it can. Russia’s two problems are lack of arable land in the Far East due to permafrost, and lack of man power.

A warming planet solves both problems. In the next few decades after 2050 we are going to see mass migration of people from Mexico, United States into Canada, and from China, south East asia into Russia.

Russia is going to become a superpower in terms of food production Its GDP will be 5x current levels by 2080- 2100.


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China would do well eventually to take down under... Oz looks ripe for the taking if China can eventually dethrone USA
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
China would do well eventually to take down under... Oz looks ripe for the taking if China can eventually dethrone USA
[/QUOTE]

But what good would it really do? I doubt Australia is worth the hassle for China.

On the other hand, Indonesia is just next door to Australia.
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
For any modern economy, Agriculture only accounts for less than 3% of GDP or employment.
The conclusion is that a modern wealthy economy is based on manufacturing and services, not agriculture.

Russia is xenophobic enough that it doesn't want large numbers of immigrants moving to Siberia.

So I doubt we will see the mass people movements you imagine.

Mass migration will happen. The World will be completely different place by 2050 and beyond. Food production, water resources, etc.. will take center stage as much of the global south will be devastated by Global Warming.

A large portion of people from the global South will want and must migrate to cooler climates in the North. That is almost guaranteed to happen. No one benefits more than Canada and Russia, and Northern European countries.

The only way Canada or Russia can capitalize on global warming is to welcome more immigrants to settle and develop the land. Their recent policies reflect this understanding.
 
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nugroho

Junior Member
I always said that do not expect relations to improve under Biden. He’s not going to roll back most of Trump’s action against China.

The areas China and US are competing with are not negotiable.

Climate change is the exception. But even here the US is looking out for its own interests. A warming world hurts America and strengthens Russia as vast swathes of land in Siberia is opened up for Russian developments. Russia food production and GDP increases 5x by 2080 as the world warms; making Russia a superpower!
Maybe, but a warmer world will sink a lot of China land including Shanghai
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe, but a warmer world will sink a lot of China land including Shanghai
Its predicted China will have fusion by 2060, giving it another two or three decades to scale up...

We may have aritificially grown food by then... and with infinite energy seawater can be used in place of freshwater

Food security is not going to be an issue, think cyborg, direct nanoinjections of ATP etc
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its predicted China will have fusion by 2060, giving it another two or three decades to scale up...

We may have aritificially grown food by then... and with infinite energy seawater can be used in place of freshwater

Food security is not going to be an issue, think cyborg, direct nanoinjections of ATP etc
Technology will def help. But to bring it back to topic, it’s in US’ own selfish interest to cooperate with China on Global Warming. A warming planet helps Russia much more than the US.
 

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