USN fearful of PLAN subs

Exactly, if USAF can achieve air superiority. I guess that is the very thing i'm questioning here. Number of fighters USAF has stationed in the immediatearea is not that overwhelmingly big.
Here are the figures for the whole USAF pacfic command.

5th air force has 48 F15Cs on okinawa, some 500 km away from taiwan plus a certain number of f16s (i can't find exact numbers but its 2 fighter squadrons, so it's probably from 24 to more probably 48) at misawa base on mainlaind japan, little under 2000 km from taiwan.

7th air force in kunsan, and osan bases in south korea has 72 f16 block 30/40. that's some 1000 km away from taiwan.

11th Air force in elemendorf near anchorage on alaska has 2 squdrons of f15, one squadron of f16 and one squadron of f15e. it suffices to say it's damn far away from taiwan.

finally, we have the 13th air force in guam. i can't find exact figures there either, but it is mentioned one air wing of f15s is stationed there. distance to taiwan is some 2850 km.

Only okinawa is close enough for sustained sorties, without in air refuelling.
Guam's F15s could perform very few sorties per day due to the distance plus the in air refuelling. On top of that, they'd have to carry external fuel tanks, somewhat hindering their performance. South korea based F16s would also need external tanks to reach taiwan. Japan mainland based F16s can't reach it.

So, without regrouping, attacking as soon as possible, USAF has a fair number of aircraft but i doubt anyone could safely say it is overwhelming and it's enough for victory. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Fact is, no one can know unless there's actual confrontation with chinese forces as US has never faced an enemy like china. To move the forces closer or even bring forces from other parts of the world would take some considerate time by which chinese could defeat taiwanese air force and air defences and perhaps even start with airborne invasion. Ultimately, in the long run, USAF would get there before USN and achieve air supremacy, driving chinese air forces and navy back to china's mainland, effectively trapping any ground troops that might have already invaded taiwan.

air supremecy? not very likely. the chinese will keep sending planes. china will probably have 200 j-11, 76 su-27, 100 mkk/mkk2, and 100-150 j-10's. it will be a huge fight...

drive the navy back? china can protect its ships in the strait without needing to withdraw.

I don't think you're being realistic, migleader. There is virtually no chance that china can, after successfuly invading taiwan have enough forces to endure US attacks. If US gave some token help, not a real try to end china's invasion - then maybe. But if US is really adamant about pushing china back to mainland there is just no realistic way china can hold it's ground on taiwan and around strait area. Maybe it could last fairly long but ultimately USAF and USN forces are so big that it is just not possible in the long run. Anyways, your numbers are off for today's PLAF, but if we assume you were refering to some 2008 or so, sure, but by then taiwanese forces will be stronger too and US will have deployed F22 in adequate numbers. And so on, military tech never stops advancing.

it's fairly impossible to assume the outcome buy who's bigger and better. yes, my figures were projected for the near future. how will the u.s get f-22 to the area? it not a naval aircraft. china is not going to let the U.s put f-22s next to the mainland anyways, it would complain it's a threat to security.

the fight is not going to be a back-forth shoving match. if the conflict escalsates, we can assume neither the us or china will play by the rules.

taiwan in 08 will only have a weaker position for independence. they might get a few sams, but chinese some chinese sams can actully shoot down planes over taiwan.

stick on topic. this is about pla subs vs US. not about fighters.

MIGleader said:

it's fairly impossible to assume the outcome buy who's bigger and better. yes, my figures were projected for the near future. how will the u.s get f-22 to the area? it not a naval aircraft. china is not going to let the U.s put f-22s next to the mainland anyways, it would complain it's a threat to security.

the fight is not going to be a back-forth shoving match. if the conflict escalsates, we can assume neither the us or china will play by the rules.

taiwan in 08 will only have a weaker position for independence. they might get a few sams, but chinese some chinese sams can actully shoot down planes over taiwan.

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are you forgetting that all the USN needs to do is surge all their carrier fleets into the pacific? lets see, we'll go by your calculations in the future JSF will be used; there's B-2's in Diego Garcia and they can easily bring in more from Whiteman AFB. ok so 9 Nimitz's. each carrying 85 aircraft so 9x85=765... that's enough to take on the PLAAF, not to mention Rumsfled might move a couple of F-22's to Japan just to "watch china"

swimmerXC said:

are you forgetting that all the USN needs to do is surge all their carrier fleets into the pacific? lets see, we'll go by your calculations in the future JSF will be used; there's B-2's in Diego Garcia and they can easily bring in more from Whiteman AFB. ok so 9 Nimitz's. each carrying 85 aircraft so 9x85=765... that's enough to take on the PLAAF, not to mention Rumsfled might move a couple of F-22's to Japan just to "watch china"

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Again, the real question is how committed US will be to rescuing Taiwan. If US is really committed, then China will loose Taiwan even if it originally takes it over. Personally, I think there are enough military officers in Pentagon who wants to take out China's newly developed and purchased weapons so much, that they would be willing to sacrifice a few carriers a long the way.

tphuang said:

Again, the real question is how committed US will be to rescuing Taiwan. If US is really committed, then China will loose Taiwan even if it originally takes it over. Personally, I think there are enough military officers in Pentagon who wants to take out China's newly developed and purchased weapons so much, that they would be willing to sacrifice a few carriers a long the way.

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If the PLA can land a couple million men in Taiwan, then there is no way to ge them off. Air power does not perform well against entrenched positionts, as proven in history again and again. And China can replace a batch of fighter jets a hell of a lot easier than the US can replace a couple of carriers. You could buy at least 1,000 Flankers for the cost of one operational carrier, including aircraft.

You honestly think that China can withstand American ground forces as well as Naval and Air forces? I severely doubt it.


And the only Chinese subs that really pose a threat are too few to be a factor, considering the opposition.

it is possible. China still has some of the bravest soldiers who are willing to fight kamikaze style. I think the Chinese navy and AF were outclasses much more in the Korean war, but the army still withstood the challenge. When the Americans come onto Taiwan, it will not be like fighting against the Iraqis.