USN fearful of PLAN subs

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IDonT

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Totoro said:
No one can know for sure if chinese could intercept a b2 and bring it down. Including americans, which is why they probably wont fly b2s directly over china's soil before they achieve air superiority. I'd say, and i'm just guessing here, chinese would be able to detect something with their ground based radars, a broad location of a b2. problem is with targeting aircraftborn radars (not to mention ones in missiles), pretty much any targeting radar works in higher frequences which are much harder to detect a plane like b2. so basically you'd haev to get really close to the b2 to be able to lock on. Actually it'd probably be more cost effective, if possible, to just get behind b2s tail and gun it down. But again, USAAF is not likely to run such lone bomber over china deep strikes.


B-2's radar signiture is so small that the B-2 needs to be literally on top of the radar sight for it to register a return.

Besides, a B-2 strike will be in conjunction with other strikes.
B-1 Bomber strikes and tomahawk missiles, fighter sweeps, etc.
 

IDonT

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MIGleader said:
the million man swim is Us and taiwan bullshit propaganda. the plan is building large amounts of the yukan transports. they are also probably going to buy the russian zubr class tansports.

china does not plan to buy those 1l-76's to drop in turkistan. they will be used on taiwan.

china only only needs 10,000 marines to keep it's beachhead(which it can already manage). another few divisions will be needed to take taiwan. im sure the plan can obtain that capability in the near future.

You need more than just transport to get your invasion force to Taiwan. You also need landing ships. Most of PLAN's ships are LST, which need a gentle sloping beach in order for it to disembark troops. Taiwan has about 5 such beaches.

10,000 marines will be on their own until the next wave comes, which will take at least 24 hours (transit time + embarking time to ships). Then their will be logistical need to feed and supply the men with ammo. They will have to hold on the beach head against a numerically superior foe with heavy armor..

That is assuming that no transports are lost in making its way to Taiwan. Taiwan has a multitude of shore base anti-ship missiles and attaining air superiority is strenous at best.
 

chinawhite

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IDonT said:
B-2's radar signiture is so small that the B-2 needs to be literally on top of the radar sight for it to register a return.

the RCS is only for the front of the B-2. it is the size of a marble or bumble bee.

from the side the RCS will be dramaticly bigger.


And no the B-2 will not have the same RCS from any distance. the close it gets the larger the RCS will be
 

Totoro

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Of course B2 wouldn't be the only platform/weapon US would use. Even B2s themselves would probably use short range stand off weapons. (id reserve long range stand off weapons to 52s and b1s, otherwise whats the point of having a stealth bomber?) To do the best of my knowledge, modern russian/chech/ukrainan etc radars can detect a b2 at a greater range than the radars Iraq or Serbia had. Problem is that such radars arent accurate and can't even remotely pinpoint the location but only give a broad area of where the plane is. Targeting radars are pretty much useless, since you have to get in almost a visual range in order to lock on a B2.

As for china's transport ships, 7 of their large LSTs must come on the beach itself (yukan class) but 11 of the Yuting class can flood their deck and launch amphibious tanks and boats. 4 more of the improved yuting class are to be delivered.

Of course if china invades it'd be stupid to send troops in ships before china has complete air superiority, complete sea control of the strait area, at least suppressed if not destroyed land based antiship systems. In my opinion, an airborne assault is almost certain before any shipborne assoult comes. Capturing and holding some runways close to the beachhead would be of great importance to china. I don't agree 24 hr period needed per batch of 10 000 troops (and some 200 tanks) that china is capable of ferrying at once, of course providing all ships are used and are not destroyed :p Given the fuel ships have and the range to taiwan, i'd say its more like 12-14 hours per two way trip plus embarkment/disembarkment
 

IDonT

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Totoro said:
Of course B2 wouldn't be the only platform/weapon US would use. Even B2s themselves would probably use short range stand off weapons. (id reserve long range stand off weapons to 52s and b1s, otherwise whats the point of having a stealth bomber?) To do the best of my knowledge, modern russian/chech/ukrainan etc radars can detect a b2 at a greater range than the radars Iraq or Serbia had. Problem is that such radars arent accurate and can't even remotely pinpoint the location but only give a broad area of where the plane is. Targeting radars are pretty much useless, since you have to get in almost a visual range in order to lock on a B2.

As for china's transport ships, 7 of their large LSTs must come on the beach itself (yukan class) but 11 of the Yuting class can flood their deck and launch amphibious tanks and boats. 4 more of the improved yuting class are to be delivered.

Of course if china invades it'd be stupid to send troops in ships before china has complete air superiority, complete sea control of the strait area, at least suppressed if not destroyed land based antiship systems. In my opinion, an airborne assault is almost certain before any shipborne assoult comes. Capturing and holding some runways close to the beachhead would be of great importance to china. I don't agree 24 hr period needed per batch of 10 000 troops (and some 200 tanks) that china is capable of ferrying at once, of course providing all ships are used and are not destroyed :p Given the fuel ships have and the range to taiwan, i'd say its more like 12-14 hours per two way trip plus embarkment/disembarkment

Embarking 10,000 troops with all their equipment and supplies takes time. 24 hours is on the low side estimate.

Achieving air superiority takes time. Isn't one of PLA's doctrine is to take taiwan before the US can bring its superior force to bear?
 

Totoro

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Okay, so please break down your figure of 24 hours per batch into segments. Just how much are you thinking embarkment would take? (keep in mind the troops/supplies would already be prepared to be boarded) My 12-14 hr estimate isn't sustained runs, as transport ships need to be supplied themselves, crews changed, etc, but as many ferry runs they can do without refuelling. yuting class for example does 5400 km at 14 knots. half that range to cruise at 18 knots and its still a long endurance. one way run from china to taiwan would be 160-250 km, depening on various harbors china's forces would embark from.
So i'm still sticking to 12-14 hours, once the fleet and troops have been assembled.

As for air war, again, how long do you think that'd last? My educated guess is up to 3 days. Which is just as fine cause it'd take like 5 days to assemble the troops and fleet for shipborne assault anyway. By that time china would have complete air and sea control over strait area.

Main question here is (since were already assuming US would get involved, which i agree with btw, US probably would help taiwan) how fast can US get that help. Cruise missile attacks first, those could start perhaps as early as the end of first day of invasion. They'd be mostly air launched as it'd take time to bring significant number of tomahawk launching platforms in the area. It is my guess US could send one CBG in the first week, but it's questionable would they do it, as a long CBG is an easier target than a part of several CBGs with additional USAAF cover. So, aside of cruise missile strikes, heavy bomber runs, and F15s stationed in the area (please provide the exact numbers if you have, i know for sure just about those okinawa based f15s, 75 aircraft.) US help wouldn't be that great in the first week. I'm thinking it'd take 2-4 weeks for US to turn the tide of war for good, if it wishes to do so.
 
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bd popeye

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I don't know how this thread turned into US vs PRC over Tiawan but..

I'm sure because of treaties that the US would be involved. That's one reason the Seventh Fleet is stationed in Japan

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Main question here is (since were already assuming US would get involved, which i agree with btw, US probably would help taiwan) how fast can US get that help.

1 CV, 1 LHD, 2 CG's, 4 DDG's, 2 FFG's, 1 LPD, 2 LSD's, 2 MCM's, 1 ARS homeported in Japan. Plus all the suppourt aircraft. The logistics ships and subs are in Guam.

So any thought of the US fleet taking time to get there is nill. In addition there would be 10-20 other ships of various types in the Western Pacific.

There are 23,000 US Marines and suppourting Navy personnel on Okinawa.

As for the B-2 bomber well it can strike anywhere anytime but has generally been used for night missions.

As I posted previously the USAF has tankers, F-15's wings and B-1's in Guam on a rotational basis.

I would hate to see any conflict between the US and PRC over anything.
 

Totoro

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True, US has that one carrier homeported in japan. Keep in mind we're talking about response time. So, not the time from the decision to send send forces to the needed area but time from the first reports that something is going on in china, all the political debates and decisions, order to ship out and then finally getting to the needed area. Again, would one CBG, with all those ships you mentioned, be enough to make USN confident enough to send it? I say no. Sending one lone CBG into china's reach to attack is too risky. Only if they wanna make a show of force and show of support, they could send it and stay away from china's coast. For further CBGs i used a figure of one to few weeks, to get mobilized/organized and sent to the area. Also, to get more USAAF fighters than already are in the area takes time, again a couple of days at least. If someone has the number of available USAAF fighters in the japan/guam/korea area, please write it here.

Anyhow, i dont know neither how this got turned into china invasion topic but that does tend to be the case on this forum. :p I have mixed feelings over the potential war. On one hand, i hate any kind of violence and i despise war and killing and i'd hate ppl to die so i don't wanna see that war happen. On the other hand i am a military tech/strategy/news buff and i'd probably be glued to bbc/cnn/various net sites during such a war. Just being honest.
 

bd popeye

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Anyhow, i dont know neither how this got turned into china invasion topic

Me either! :confused:

Again, would one CBG, with all those ships you mentioned, be enough to make USN confident enough to send it?

Yes it would . With conditions... As long as another CSG is on the way and the USAF has air superiorty...Which is their mandate. I do don't know the USAF strenght in the western Pacific but a couple of months ago I saw a USAF general on CSPN say that the USAF has and will maintain air superiorty in the western Pacific. He explained the present deployment of USAF forces in the Pacific. This was during a hearing over the US military budget.

On the other hand i am a military tech/strategy/news buff and i'd probably be glued to bbc/cnn/various net sites during such a war. Just being honest

I have similar feelings..but if their is war coverage on Tv I will be sitting next to you. Pass the popcorn! :)
 

Neko

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Totoro said:
...i am a military tech/strategy/news buff and i'd probably be glued to bbc/cnn/various net sites during such a war. Just being honest.


I agree. :)

Even when we invaded Iraq this time, which I didn't particularly support, I was still more shocked and awed at our own capabilities. Every chance I got, i would sit and stare at footage of the booms and the bangs and the rushing of troops and equipment. I am totally facinated by the whole idea.

I guess power just attracts people.
 
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