The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng said:

Definitivly hasn't got enought, considering that pickups worth pocket changes selling for serious money now.

Anyway, next two weeks will be freezing, means if the Russians wants to do anything then they have to do in the comming weeks

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Presently is not that cold, I don't think they will freeze a lot. Winter are not that harsh in Ukraine.


But It will be ''be cold or die'' if the Russian use winter to shot at all distinct IR signatures on the Ukrainian side. Soldiers will heat themselves near the front with woods and will use generators, they are good heat emitters to pick. During nightime it could be easy picking

After saying this, didn't see night drone footages and beside cruise missiles or lobbing of mlrs, I think I could count night video of battle on one hand...

Phead128 said:

Putin decided to mobilize when he saw he was outnumbered 5:1, or 1 million vs. 180K, as an attacking force no less.

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To add, by my own count, the Russians have suffered around 18k KIA and 72k total casualties. 72k out of 180k is definitely nontrivial.

~66% of the guessimate of 1300 tanks from the original invasion have been destroyed.

Yes, there were reinforcements as we know from the Far East, etc. However, guessimated equipment 'losses' of 80 BTGs plus 23 tank battalions hurt.

I don't have even wild guesses on the Ukrainian side. I expect at least the same, if not more. I lament the lack of a pro Russian Oryx (again).

Atomicfrog said:

Presently is not that cold, I don't think they will freeze a lot. Winter are not that harsh in Ukraine.

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Hypothermia can take place even at temperatures above 4 C. The highs in Donetsk were 5 C. Trenches are going to suck to be in.

anzha said:

I don't have even wild guesses on the Ukrainian side. I expect at least the same, if not more. I lament the lack of a pro Russian Oryx (again).

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Following NATO Oryx or a pro-Russian Oryx would be the same... a giant amount of propaganda numbers that don't say the truth.

The long term thug of war will bring results on the ground and will tell us what is happening. The war just begun, the front line look to have settled to a cohesive one and we will see if it moves before next spring.

anzha said:

Hypothermia can take place even at temperatures above 4 C. The highs in Donetsk were 5 C. Trenches are going to suck to be in.

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At 5 C we bring out the T-shirts to work outside here in eastern Canada... It clearly depend of what they wear and how soak they are on the front.

anzha said:

I totally believe there have been massive casualties. That terrain sucks for combat unless you can move really quickly. Ukraine lacks the ability to move at fully mechanized rapidity. There are two other militaries I'll avoid naming that could have punched through and taken far, far faster with less casualties.

However, I want to call out just blindly accepting a narrative. There is a wild tendency here to merely accept the Russian sources and disparage anything else. They are not always wrong, but... I trust neither the Russian or the Western sources. I outright disbelieve the official Ukrainian ones.

It continues to be both interesting and disappointing no pro Russian version of Oryx has arisen.

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Just to add to that, Arevostovich has also previously made this claim of heavy casualties in Kherson for the Ukrainian side. Also, I follow a journalist who is currently in Odessa and he was at the exact moment that Zelensky appeared in Kherson after that city fell, he talking to the Ukrainian military said that the casualties on the AFU side were enormous, but they were also killing one large numbers of Russian soldiers, he saw the mobilization take place in Odessa, and whenever the mobilized were called up, they were told that the chances of returning were 50%.

Atomicfrog said:

The long term thug of war will bring results on the ground and will tell us what is happening. The war just begun, the front line look to have settled to a cohesive one and we will see if it moves before next spring.

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The final story of this war will be written after the fact. I hope we all knew that.

People here noted the videos posted by pro Ukrainians in the earliest parts of the war did not give an accurate depiction of what was happening. The same holds true for Russian videos now. They are ancedotal.

Numbers give some more guessimate to what has happened (note: Oryx's numbers have been crawling for a few weeks now). I still treat Oryx with error bars of 20%+/-. Some data to back it, but some of it, well, frankly, sus.

OTOH, I still find it very interesting that there is no pro Russian OSINT, afaict. Bloggers, yes, but no attempts at putting together what is being seen as far as total Ukrainian equipment losses and whatnot. Even tainted, it gives a better idea of what is really happening than just the pictures, videos and propaganda.

Atomicfrog said:

At 5 C we bring out the T-shirts to work outside here in eastern Canada... It clearly depend of what they wear and how soak they are on the front.

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Sure. When I lived in the mountains as a teen, long sleeves and shorts came out when we were above 4 C. Sunburn is real danger at 2100 meters (the reason for long sleeve shirts).

The conditions now are quite wet. Tomorrow is projected to rain, for example, in Donetsk.

Sitting still in a trench or foxhole isn't recommended at those temperatures though, wet or dry.

Zichan said:

They invaded with only 180,000 troops, whereas realistically they required 3 times that much to achieve their objectives.

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Public objectives are for creating deception so any number thrown around is highly speculative to achieve those objectives.

pmc said:

Public objectives are for creating deception so any number thrown around is highly speculative to achieve those objectives.

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If the Russians invaded with less than 180k, it does not speak well of their intel ops or their planning whatsoever.

But then, here we are, day 276 of the war between what was supposed to be a superpower and a 3rd rate army. This isn't a guerilla war like any of the Afghanistan conflicts of the last 50 years or any of the insurgencies of the last century and change. This is a conventional war.

Kherson was supposed to be part of Russia now. That is be part of their overtly stated objectives.

How much progress has Russia made since July?