The War in the Ukraine

anzha said:

Thank you. Is it just video or do they have a website of losses? I'll add them to my listen feed even so. I appreciate it.

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I think they are taking their number on Oryx for Russian loss and for Ukrainian side elsewhere... the video are posted on this forum daily. Looking at these numbers is just nonsense anyway... if we take it like they are, the Russian are in California and Ukraine in Vladivostok before spring...

Rybar maps are nice to follow what's happening in the war, not a lot of media can bring information of the frontline like them, concise and looking quite moderate.

ZeEa5KPul said:

It very much is progress. How many inches a frontline moves in 24 hours isn't the measure of progress, that's a secondary battlefield. The real war is waged on the strategic level (where the light map is a much truer measure of progress than trench lines) and Ukraine's fate is sealed there because Russia can annihilate its existence as a functioning state.

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Again. The Russian side of the line is having just as many power problems. Look at the image you posted.

July isn't the last 24 hours. It's more than half the time of the war. In that time frame, the Russians have lost the Right Bank of the Dniepr and Kharkov. Not mere centimeters.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Once Russia is victorious, it can worry about rebuilding its annexed territories. Now's not the time.

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I started at the beginning of this war thinking Russia was going to crush Ukraine. I watched in horror in 2014 and I was convinced Ukraine would lose this war and hard by July. I am no longer convinced the Russians will win the war. I think war hangs in the balance. So long as the Ukrainians remain supplied, the AFU could beat the Russians. I am literally shaking my head in wonder at the thought.

The Ukrainians have a guessimated million person army. The Russians started with 190k+/-. They have called up another 300k. That ratio does not look to be in their favor.

So!

When do you think the Russians will win?

I had said before if Russia had not won by July, they are going have problems. It looks like that was the case. I am willing to say: if the Russians have not won by October 2023, they are probably going to lose.

Where will you place your 'bet?'

anzha said:

When do you think the Russians will win?

I had said before if Russia had not won by July, they are going have problems. It looks like that was the case. I am willing to say: if the Russians have not won by October 2023, they are probably going to lose.

Where will you place your 'bet?'

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I don't know and I don't care to speculate. What I do know that so long as Russia can keep destroying Ukraine's infrastructure, its power plants, gas lines, fuel storage, water treatment plants, hospitals, and granaries - while Russia itself remains untouched - it cannot but win this war.

pmc said:

…
objectives are much beyond ukraine.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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And that alone shows how much wrong and in fact crazy he is!

ZeEa5KPul said:

I don't know and I don't care to speculate. What I do know that so long as Russia can keep destroying Ukraine's infrastructure, its power plants, gas lines, fuel storage, water treatment plants, hospitals, and granaries - while Russia itself remains untouched - it cannot but win this war.

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Ukraine's logistics lines are not in Ukraine. Their logistics base is not under attack and will not be. just to put into perspective.

anzha said:

I posted the pictures a few days ago. That's not progress.

Bomber Harris and madman Curtis LeMay didn't break the will of the Germans with heavy bombings. The Japanese were not broken by it either.

Note: the power outages are on the Russian side of the line, too.

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I think the massive firebombing (100K+ dead) of Tokyo and the total destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by atomic bombs and the prospect of the entire country being burned to the ground did psychologically break the Japanese leadership.

Likewise in the conclusion to the Korean War, the USAF amped up their already brutal strategic bombing campaign: they targeted North Korean food crops and destroyed several of their major irrigation dams in May when the rice plants were particularly susceptible to flooding. According to their reports, the USAF was prepared to bomb the dams again in August, after which there would be no more time left to replant the rice. The very real possibility of starving to death weighed heavily on the shoulders of the North Korean leadership and was a major factor that compelled them to accept the armistice. Needless to say this was a massive war crime.

anzha said:

Ukraine's logistics lines are not in Ukraine. Their logistics base is not under attack and will not be. just to put into perspective.

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The West can keep a residual force on life support in Ukraine, it cannot keep the state functioning. If it could, the light map you posted days ago (but haven't understood the importance of) would look very different. The Ukrainians' resolve and the West's willingness to back them won't matter when they're freezing and starving.

Zichan said:

I think the firebombing of Tokyo and the total destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by atomic bombs and the prospect of the entire country being burned to the ground did psychologically brake the Japanese leadership.

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I don't think the fire bombing of Tokyo (or Dresden) made much difference. The atomic bombings did have a serious effect, but even then, based on deliberations of the Japanese, it was a close decision to surrender. Nuclear weapons are different level and not in play in the Russo-Ukrainian War despite the occasional threat.

Zichan said:

Needless to say this was a massive war crime.

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Indeed, it was. DM me with a good book from your POV on the lead up to the armistice in Korea.

We're starting to stray though and the mods might spank us if we continue here.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Ukraine's fate is sealed there because Russia can annihilate its existence as a functioning state and is doing exactly that.

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ZeEa5KPul said:

We shall see if they truly understand how to wage total warfare.

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They just gave up Kherson because it was a strategically untenable position, they are not going to end Ukraine as a state, perform regime change, or even wage total warfare.

Kremlin official spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed "regime change" is not part of S.M.O. objectives. Thanks @pmc sharing original URL link.

So we can conclude losing electricity, food, energy is more making life inconvenient (or at best, degrading military performance) , rather than whole-scale collapse of society or unconditional surrender.

Deino said:

And that alone shows how much wrong and in fact crazy he is!

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Well china already promised support to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, so that's a no go. Baltic countries are not going to be attacked for obvious reasons. So, I think we can just generally ignore the occasional Putin rants. Not that much different from trump rants. Not based on reality.