The War in the Ukraine


gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is a high suspicion Russia can maintain the current strike tempo indefinitely.
Simply from production lines.
I doubt that is true. Truth is probably somewhere in between those estimates. But cruise missiles stocks are certainly not like Ukraine said nor do they know the Russian missile production rate. I think it is a combination of high stocks and high production rate. Still, after this conflict, I think the Russians will probably have the most mass produced jet engine in history.

Just so you know, in WW2, the Germans fired like 100 V-1 flying bombs a day at the UK. While that was a much simpler a design, with modern technologies and automated assembly who knows what the production rate of Russian cruise missiles can be. In modern terms the production cost might be the same.

Even if the Ukrainians try to estimate production rate based on their engine production rate of the cruise missile engine line they have which used Soviet era hand assembly, I think it will be wrong.
 
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Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ukrainian sources say the reactors are back on but the nuclear power plants are still disconnected from the grid.

I dug up the pre-war power generating capacity makeup, you can see why the nuclear power stations are such a big deal and why taking them off grid had such a big effect yesterday:

View attachment 102334
On M. Koffman’s show they speculated should Russia attempt another attack from Belarus that this time their goal might be to capture the Rivne nuclear power plant. That map has its location wrong: the plant is much further north and not too far from the border with Belarus. Losing that power plant would be a major blow in the current circumstances.
 

tankphobia

Junior Member
Registered Member
you made a claim of TB2 and Moskova. now prove it that TB2 has any role in Moskova. That drone is practically useless and danger to Ukranians due its use of runway takeoff at slow speeds.
What evidence would you require? To this day the official Russian position is that the Moskva caught fire and sank in rough seas without being under attack, see RT:
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The closest you'd get to an official admission of attack would be from state affiliated press i.e Greyzone which states that TB-2 were involved in the sinking:
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I'd much rather this be the case then the flagship of the black sea fleet getting sunk by 2 subsonic cruise missiles alone while acting as the AD platform for the entire fleet.

Anyhow, not every country on earth has hundreds of AA/EW systems ready to counter UAVs, we'd already see them work quite effectively even in previous conflicts, they serve quite well as a mid-size UAV capable of performing anti-armor operations.
 

pmc

Senior Member
Registered Member
What evidence would you require? To this day the official Russian position is that the Moskva caught fire and sank in rough seas without being under attack, see RT:
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The closest you'd get to an official admission of attack would be from state affiliated press i.e Greyzone which states that TB-2 were involved in the sinking:
View attachment 102340
I'd much rather this be the case then the flagship of the black sea fleet getting sunk by 2 subsonic cruise missiles alone while acting as the AD platform for the entire fleet.

Anyhow, not every country on earth has hundreds of AA/EW systems ready to counter UAVs, we'd already see them work quite effectively even in previous conflicts, they serve quite well as a mid-size UAV capable of performing anti-armor operations.
if there is TB2 involved. Ukrainians would have video evidence. its large ship. easily can be spotted.
look at this rostec head latest interview. he does not mention Orion/Fropost-R atgm firing drones (TB2 counterpart).
i am sure they are using it but less important role. this TB2 concept completely flopped in this conflict.
He is looking forward to real drone with internal bays and word Stealth, "Heavy" and Avionics.
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“We have developments in these areas. In the zone of a special military operation, drones manufactured by the Kalashnikov concern - Lancet and KUB are successfully used. They can independently conduct reconnaissance and attack the target,” Chemezov said. – Work is actively underway on the Okhotnik heavy attack drone. Its distinguishing feature is low visibility and avionics with elements of artificial intelligence. This is a very serious and promising complex. Now the Okhotnik is being tested, and we plan to start serial production of the machine soon.”
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
What evidence would you require? To this day the official Russian position is that the Moskva caught fire and sank in rough seas without being under attack, see RT:
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The closest you'd get to an official admission of attack would be from state affiliated press i.e Greyzone which states that TB-2 were involved in the sinking:
View attachment 102340
I'd much rather this be the case then the flagship of the black sea fleet getting sunk by 2 subsonic cruise missiles alone while acting as the AD platform for the entire fleet.

Anyhow, not every country on earth has hundreds of AA/EW systems ready to counter UAVs, we'd already see them work quite effectively even in previous conflicts, they serve quite well as a mid-size UAV capable of performing anti-armor operations.


Yes, and Russian reports are always true!?
 

Biscuits

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes, and Russian reports are always true!?
Meh. Given the way Ukraine has been conducting the war, if there was a definite kill shot, you can bet it would have been plastered all over western state media.

Even the failed attack on Sevastopol harbor was given dashcam footage. And there was fake footage with a missile prepared to mask the fact the Kerch bridge attack was using a suicide bomber.

I wouldn't buy the story at all if it was PLAN or USN, but Ru navy has a history with choppy waters, tugboats and outdated ships.

If anything it's a worse look for Russia that just a bit of panic due to wartime situation means they make an accident and the ship capsizes...

Russian navy is pretty much a white elephant inherited from the USSR, a lot of their ships are barely livable on the inside due to having 1970s internals. Russia doesn't have funds to modernize them.
 

pmc

Senior Member
Registered Member
Russian navy is pretty much a white elephant inherited from the USSR, a lot of their ships are barely livable on the inside due to having 1970s internals. Russia doesn't have funds to modernize them.
RuNavy has been reliably launching cruise missiles from small ships and subs. they have shot drones. what else you can expect?.
firing cannons at shores.
 

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