Seems like all those western forecasters have it all wrong. Russia is capable of bringing down Ukraine very fast if pressed too far. Seems like as though one shouldn’t have made light of the Russian prisoners being murdered and get the UN to write it off and basically laugh about it. Now Europe gets to deal with a migrant crisis like none other and the unnecessary part of Ukraine gets to freeze to death as a result. One must wonder if Ukraine saw this coming and actually have been in denial that Russia had the gut and fortitude to take off the gloves at the right time. It seems that the area east of the main river are mostly fine but on the other side, things are no so good. It seems negotiations will only happen after the Ukraine has been completely turned into a failed state and the rest of the nation is in tatters.
Oh these will be handy. I hope they know how to perform extensive maintenance because these things are terribly demanding.
They will send them with trained Ukrainian pilot for the type ? That number will not change a thing but I think they where low on pilots, anyway. Even loss a high ranking air force officer on snake island in may because they had no more pilots. If they are able to train some pilots for the type, a lot of NATO country have some variant or older Seaking to give. If they bring a bunch together they could bring back some lift capacity with a common type making training easier. Still a long shot with not a lot of gain.
According with one of the articles, they trained crews for them in the last 6 weeks. There is no mention of which version they will get, whether they will be ASW or transport variants.
If they want the ASW variant to throw torpedos at Sevastopol... they will put fuel on the fire big time. They would not survive long either. Transport variant will be more usefull but it's clearly not the best helo for the job even if it was new, the Westland Lynx would have been way better and probably availaible in larger number even France retired the type not a long time ago, Germany have some and Britain retired them in the past 4 years. An existing stockpile of these fast helicopter certainly exist. Would have been way better for fast incursion.
Personally, I think the current strategy is to capture Donbass (specifically Donetsk oblast) with newly mobilized men as soon as possible, declare victory, end the S.M.O. and mobilization, and hunker down for a decades-long border war, with natural barrier along Dniper river or fortified defensive positions along the new border. It's more sustainable way for Russia to continue the conflict in the long-term too, rather than endless mobilization and onslaught against Western Ukraine or Kharkiv, which only plays into NATO's strength in endlessly funding a porcupine for decades, with no guarantee that Ukraine would surrender or be conquered. The S.M.O. can largely be a success in achieving it's limited strategic objectives, but mixed results on broader strategic front.
If they were to settle down for a long war, the Russians need to take one or two big cities along the Dnipro, certainly Zaporizhzhia, but maybe also Dnipro. Dnipro is a major logistic hub that if taken, will hobble the Ukrainians in this long war. The other city they should aim for is Kharkiv. Once these cities are taken, the Russians will be in a much better position. How long it would take to conquer these cities depends on how much they can grind down the Ukrainian military. It could take as long as two or three years. The first year they would mainly focus on taking Donbass, maybe conquer Zaporizhzhia.