The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
If your first-rate military is losing ground to Isis charges in pickup, you're not a first rate military... If anyone has said Russians would get encircled 6 months ago they would get laughed out of these forums.

Not really. You can have the best trained and equipped army in the world but you can still get zerg rushed away if your positions are undermaned, then it becomes a point where its just better to cede and regroup rather than waste manpower holding ground you might lose eventually if you can't reinforce them in a sensible amount of time.



Case in point, the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Or are you going to pretend the US wasn't pushed out of A-stan by a bunch of jihadis on pickup trucks either?.

us-misleads-on-afghanistan-promo-1537277671618-articleLarge.png

Which should also point out what would be the point of wasting manpower on such rushes as Ukraine is down when you also have to hold the ground in a likely counteroffensive?

An Ukranian T-64BV gets shot at very short range by a Russian T-80BV. No idea on date or location
 
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tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not really. You can have the best trained and equipped army in the world but you can still get zerg rushed away if your positions are undermaned, then it becomes a point where its just better to cede and regroup rather than waste manpower holding ground you might lose eventually if you can't reinforce them in a sensible amount of time.



Case in point, the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Or are you going to pretend the US wasn't pushed out of A-stan by a bunch of jihadis on pickup trucks either?.

View attachment 98417

Which should also point out what would be the point of wasting manpower on such rushes as Ukraine is down when you also have to hold the ground in a likely counteroffensive?

An Ukranian T-64BV gets shot at very short range by a Russian T-80BV. No idea on date or location
Idk why the Vietnam/ME wars keep getting brought up like it's some kind of ultimate gotcha, they're not literally right across the borders to the US. The US does not have train tracks leading right to the front, nor is Afghanistan/Vietnam perfectly flat terrain that is suitable for armored assault. You pointed out that the Russians pulled out as they can't reinforce units literally 200km away from their borders in time and is in great risk of encirclement, good, I'm glad we agree on something there.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
The fall of Lyman appears imminent. Ukrainian forces are getting awfully close to Lysychansk. Latest map from ISW:
lyman_result.jpg

What's next after Lyman? Will the Ukrainians push north to outflank the Russian positions east of the Oskil River and liberate what remains occupied of the Kharkiv Oblast or will they press towards Lyschansk?
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
The fall of Lyman appears imminent. Ukrainian forces are getting awfully close to Lysychansk. Latest map from ISW:
View attachment 98428

What's next after Lyman? Will the Ukrainians push north to outflank the Russian positions east of the Oskil River and liberate what remains occupied of the Kharkiv Oblast or will they press towards Lyschansk?
They will try both if they capture Lyman. I expect Russians to eventually take all that territory back, except for Izium and other parts of Kharkov, even though the Russians sure are taking their sweet time in bringing in reinforcements. All at the expense of time and lives that could have been avoided if they had decided to strongly garrison their forces in Kharkov and northern Donetsk before the Ukrainians undertook their offensive
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
They will try both if they capture Lyman. I expect Russians to eventually take all that territory back, except for Izium and other parts of Kharkov, even though the Russians sure are taking their sweet time in bringing in reinforcements.
Didn't see al lot of informations about how many Ukrainian troops are advancing ? It's a pain for Russian troops to cover back this terrain, Izium to Lyman axis is quite woody. If the Ukrainian are able to encrouch themselves in wood and urban environments near Lyschansk they can stall the Russian even more. The more time pass and they will fall into a 2 months of muddy terrain with gains more difficults for both sides. Nice push from the Ukrainians.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Didn't see al lot of informations about how many Ukrainian troops are advancing ? It's a pain for Russian troops to cover back this terrain, Izium to Lyman axis is quite woody. If the Ukrainian are able to encrouch themselves in wood and urban environments near Lyschansk they can stall the Russian even more. The more time pass and they will fall into a 2 months of muddy terrain with gains more difficults for both sides. Nice push from the Ukrainians.
They cano it again, at significant cost of time, materiel, and personnel...
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
The United States has its own mobilization: there is a massive recruitment of mercenaries to "work" in Ukraine.

For military operations in Ukraine, the pay is twice as high and they are looking for those who are good with Soviet (!) weapons.

Pay is between $1000-2000 per day plus bonus.

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels, many mercenaries from Romania have arrived in the Kharkiv and Lyman area in recent days.

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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Does anyone have the Chinese version of the agreement between China and Ukraine from 2013?

The Joint Declaration after the 2013 Summit:
"中方高度评价乌方单方面放弃核武器,以无核武器国家身份加入1968年7月1日签署的《不扩散核武器条约》。中方根据联合国安理会第984号决议和1994年12月4日中国政府关于向乌克兰提供安全保证的声明,承诺无条件不对作为无核武器国家的乌克兰使用或威胁使用核武器,并在乌克兰遭到使用核武器的侵略或受到此种侵略威胁的情况下,向乌克兰提供相应安全保证。"

The actual treaty ratified by the NPC:
"中方高度评价乌方单方面放弃核武器,以无核武器国家身份加入1968年7月1日签署的《不扩散核武器条约》。
中方重申根据1994年12月4日中国政府关于向乌克兰提供安全保证的声明,承诺无条件不对作为无核武器国家的乌克兰使用或威胁使用核武器。"

China's 1994 declaration on providing security assurance to Ukraine:
“中国政府欢迎乌克兰销毁其境内全部核武器的决定,对乌克兰议会于11月16日批准乌克兰作为无核武器国家加入《不扩散核武器条约》表示赞赏。中国完全理解乌克兰希望得到安全保证的要求。中国政府的一贯立场是,无条件不对无核国家和无核地区使用或威胁使用核武器。这一原则立场适用于乌克兰。中国政府呼吁所有核国家作出同样的保证,以增进包括乌克兰在内的所有无核武器国家的安全。中国政府历来反对在国家关系中施加政治、经济等压力的作法,主张通过平等协商和平解决分歧和争端。中国恪守1992年1月4日中乌建立联合公报、1992年10月31日中乌联合公报和1994年9月6日中乌联合声明的精神,承认并尊重乌克兰的独立、主权和领土完整,并愿意在和平共处五项原则的基础上进一步发展中乌友好合作关系。”

Overall there's nothing special about any of those security assurances. Some people interpret the Joint Declaration as meaning China will extend all obligations in Resolution 984 and statement S/1995/265 to situations where Ukraine is under nuclear threat but not nuclear attack. That's clearly a wrong interpretation. Resolution 984 and S/1995/265 contain differentiated obligations in cases where nuclear weapons is actually used and in cases where there is merely a threat of use of nuclear weapon. When China says it will provide 相应 (respective) security assurances to Ukraine in the cases of Ukraine coming under nuclear invasion or under such threat of such attack on the basis of Resolution 984, what's meant is of course China will provide differentiated security assurance depending on whether there is an actual use of nuclear weapon or merely a threat.

In any case, no such language is present in the actual treaty, just the joint declaration.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
In any case, no such language is present in the actual treaty, just the joint declaration.

Also, didn't the Maidan regime annull almost all the treaties and laws signed by Yanukovych the years prior?

Idk why the Vietnam/ME wars keep getting brought up like it's some kind of ultimate gotcha,
Well, you insist on making a disparaging qualitative superficial assesment of the Russians based on the results so far in 8 months of war against a near-peer, NATO-resources backed enemy when the exact same arguments can be leveled against the US, even when faced against lesser foes, since 1945. Yet I doubt you'd make the same disparaging remarks against the US and its capabilites, would you not?.


they're not literally right across the borders to the US. The US does not have train tracks leading right to the front

Yeah. Is not like the US's doctrine, equipment and training since WW2 revolved around projecting all its military power all around the globe on short notice. If they have only built dozens of ships with, like an airstrip on top that could carry a small country's worth of planes or ships that could carry dozens of tanks or maybe just a huge fleet of air transports...oh wait...that's exactly what they did!

nor is Afghanistan/Vietnam perfectly flat terrain that is suitable for armored assault.
This is cutting it pretty close to "the Nazis only lost against the USSR because of General Winter" when it comes to justifying poor performance, particularly when the US enjoyed complete dominance in every other realm. I doubt they lost Vietnam and Afghanistan just because they couldn't properly use tanks...

You pointed out that the Russians pulled out as they can't reinforce units literally 200km away from their borders in time and is in great risk of encirclement, good, I'm glad we agree on something there.
And that was a political choice that has nothing to do with Russian capabilities, yes.
 
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