The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
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typexx

Junior Member
Registered Member
A Marine of the Pacific Fleet with the call sign "Vema" This is the only way to convey the atmosphere of the attack on the outskirts of ugledar under constant shelling from the ukrainians.

Soldiers of the RF armed forces use Buk-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems to cover the infantry attack near ugledar

Storming the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the eyes of the Black Mamba fighters
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
i am normally skeptical of "4D chess move" theories, but i am pretty convinced that this was a chess move by the russians, right before the rumored counterattack, throw them off course by taking down an ISR platform. brilliantly played by russia. i would not be surprised if the counterattack gets delayed again.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
i am normally skeptical of "4D chess move" theories, but i am pretty convinced that this was a chess move by the russians, right before the rumored counterattack, throw them off course by taking down an ISR platform. brilliantly played by russia. i would not be surprised if the counterattack gets delayed again.

Nah, a real 4D chess move would be to take down the drone immediately after the offensive started.

Delaying the offensive is pretty meaningless, since they can just launch it later with no real cost or loss beyond some time. But cutting off Ukraine’s ISR during the offensive would be actually useful and worth the risk of escalation.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
The video of interception of the Reaper was apparently not real. Guess we will wait until US release.
According to
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:
1. the video is real
2. the aircraft is a Su-30SM
3. multiple factors rule out this Su-30SM is from VKS, thus it must be from Black Sea Fleet's 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment

But it doesn't rule out that this video may not be from this recent event.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
According to M. Koffman, Ukraine is in the process of building 3 army corps that will play an important role in the upcoming offensive. According to him, the battle of Bakhmut is not a risk for the offensive in terms of manpower, but in terms of ammunition. He is of the opinion that Russian manpower losses are greater than Ukrainian in the battle, but cautions that engaging in attrition warfare with Russia is far from the best strategy even when the loss ratio is favorable. A lot of Russia’s losses are Wagner expendables. He talks of Ukrainian brigades being huge in size and capable of taking a lot of damage before losing cohesion and Ukrainians overall very capable at defense.

He again criticized the Russian strategy of launching and sustaining 5 simultaneous offensive directions, as well as the general decision to launch the offensive in the first place. He argued that Surovikin probably wanted to receive the Ukrainian offensive first and then go on the offensive in summer with a much better reconstituted force. He sees the current Russian offensive as playing into Ukranian hands as it will result in marginal gains but leave Russian forces in a weakened state at the time Ukraine goes on the attack.

He estimated the Ukrainian army at up to 800,000 in uniform counting all the support staff and up to 250,000 on the battlefield.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do you happen to have the name and episode of podcast where Koffman discusses the BTG? It sounds insightful.
He discussed it over multiple episodes. I think one of the earliest episodes was “What the Experts got Wrong about Russian Military Power “
 
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