The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think a person of General Surovikin's elite stature and caliber was not "demoted" or "fired" as Western media is claiming, rather Gen. Surovikin voluntarily resigned from his post as top commander of Ukraine operation because he cannot agree with Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Putin on the grand strategy in the war. Gen. Surovikin has extensive experience leading Syrian campaigns and applied that experience against the infrastructure of Ukraine to a great extent, but likely disagree with the strategy and direction of war, so he (voluntarily) moved to a nominally lower position, while maintaining ground force operation command under Gerasimov.


This is the 5th leadership change in the war over the past 11 months, only to be replaced on average 2-4 months later...Gen. Surovikin didn't even get to launch an winter offensive with the partial mobilized troops he oversaw, with Soledar falling at the end of his tenure. Maybe he wanted to end on a high note.
In fact, who was "demoted" was Gerasimov. Gerasimov holds the position of Joint Chiefs of Staff of all Russian forces. In theory, it will continue to occupy; but in practice, he will be restricted to the operational command of troops deployed in Ukraine. Surovikin was Commander-in-Chief of Russian forces in Ukraine; now he lost his position and became an assistant to Gerasimov. The chain of command between Surovikin and Gerasimov will remain the same, Surovikin is still a subordinate of Gerasimov, but has become his deputy in operations in Ukraine. Another thing to analyze in this change of command is that those who have served in the armed forces know that a newly promoted officer does not have as much credibility as the most old one, seniority still weighs on military commands, Surovikin became a four star general in 2021 - he's practically a newbie here, some senior Russian military leadership would be a bit jealous of Surokivin taking high positions like operative command in Ukraine, I have no doubt, Gerasimov taking operational command in Ukraine will give Surovikin more credibility in maintaining what he was already doing without causing some discontent among the senior leadership of the four star generals.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Gerasimov himself is also pretty capable from what we've seen so far.

He was part of Russia's assistance against Syrian jihadists. He also oversaw the battle of Mariupol and took the land bridge at the start of the war, as well as commanded what in hindsight was a feint at Sumy and Kiev that allowed the results of the land bridge battles to happen quickly.

And this was achieved without the need to use heavier weapons against infrastructure yet.

If Russia wants to push, Gerasimov is probably their top choice.
 

TheFoozyOne

New Member
Registered Member
The Russians don’t seem to understand that short term pain is better than long term pain. You won’t win a war of this scale by being casualties adverse, and the longer the war drags out, the worse the casualties may be in the end. Sometimes it’s better to have decisive victories with 10k casualties in a week than a protracted stalemate with 20k casualties in the long term. If Russia launch a million men offensive and end this war in a month with 100k casualties, it’s still better than fighting like this for another 5 years without any results.

Of course, that’s just my armchair opinion.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
My take is instead of T-72, western vehicles mean even if they are given tomorrow they will not be available on the battlefield until April-May given the training required.

AFAIK Russians have been piling up all those T-90M, T-72 of various flavors, down to T-64M. During the last few month where Surovikin has been on total defense on the ground and letting loose with flying mopeds and cruise missiles as he's a VKS man the ground forces have been rebuilding strength consistently, with tank force perhaps recovering 70-80% of the numerical strength they lost over 2022 (but not same quality obviously).

Now they put Gerasimov in charge which suggests pure defensive phase is over and Russian are about to return to offensive operation. Perhaps not quite the intensity of start of the war in 2022, but certainly more aggressive than the Surovikin period.
Kinda smells like the Battle of Moscow in WW2, Russians trade territory for time for mobilisation and re-equipment and then do massive counter attacks to simply overwhelm the enemy by sheer quantity and will
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Report by RT forwarded to the Colonel Cassad blog, documenting a failed Ukrainian counterattack to break through the Soledar encirclement. It mentions counter battery efforts by Smerch systems, and what happens when a convoy of light vehicles and APCs get pounced by Su-25s.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to organize a counterattack on Soledar and lost 200 people: details

On the morning of January 10, the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who retreated from Soledar, tried to break through the encirclement, but the operation failed. According to RT, the Vostok operational command planned to use the forces of the 46th and 77th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for this.

After the retreat of several companies of these formations from Soledar to neighboring Paraskovievka, it turned out that, in addition to a large number of dead and wounded, the brigades had almost completely lost their fire cover, including artillery of 155 and 152 mm calibers. The guns were destroyed during the attack on Soledar by Russian 300 mm Smerch systems and attack aircraft.

According to RT, the command promised fire support to the units of the 46th and 77th brigades from the forces of the 17th separate tank brigade and artillery. However, in the end, the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not receive this support.

At the same time, according to radio intercepts, there were no company and battalion commanders in the units abandoned to break through the encirclement.

The units advanced to Soledar on French VAB armored personnel carriers and British Wolfhound anti-mine armored personnel carriers. They were discovered and destroyed by the duty unit of the Su-25 attack aircraft while being corrected from the ground by the reconnaissance group of the Russian army.

An unsuccessful raid to the surrounded Soledar on light vehicles cost the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about 200 people killed. In order to underestimate the losses in Soledar, the dead were declared "missing" by Kyiv.

The total losses of all armed formations of Ukraine in Soledar since the beginning of autumn 2022,
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, can be about 20-25 thousand people.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
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“The Liberal government is spending more than $400 million to buy air-defence systems for Ukraine even though the Canadian Forces has been without such equipment for more than a decade.”

There's a large Ukrainian voting block in Canada; no doubt organized by the Ukrainian World Congress. One of their Western provinces is threatening secession and Trudeau needs to appease Ukrainian-Canadians to not support it.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
There's a large Ukrainian voting block in Canada; no doubt organized by the Ukrainian World Congress. One of their Western provinces is threatening secession and Trudeau needs to appease Ukrainian-Canadians to not support it.

Not only the voting block, Canada's deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is the grandaughter of an ukranian nazi collaborationist so she is probably the once forcing the military support of Canada down everybody's throat beyond the NATO commitments.

I'm actually surprised she isn't the one proposing to send tanks first given how much of a zealot she is and is not like Canada really needs the tanks.
 
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