The Q-5, J-7, J-8 and older PLAAF aircraft

I do not really see J-7 as a competitor for F-35. The chances that poor countries like Bangladesh or Nigeria would buy F-35 are very slim. But the chance of Italy or Canada buying J-7 is even slimmer...

There are 30 J-7 brigades/regiments in PLAAF and 1 in PLANAF. Counting about 30 per regiment, that amounts to roughly 950.

There are 6 PLAAF and 2 PLANAF fighter regiments with 210 J-8 II variants.

The JZ-8F count is more difficult, because the plane is still in production, but 3 full PLAAF brigade/regiments would be about 60, plus 6 in PLANAF 15 Regiment.

The most recent GE image (18.03.11) of SAC Shenyang-Beiling 41 51 35 N 123 25 54 E shows 22 JZ-8F awaiting delivery. The previous one (06.04.10) showed just 13.

If the current pattern of about two fighter regiments per year continues, it would take about 18 years to replace them all, i.e. in 2030.

Didn't we say back on china defence that satellite images seem to point to 24 combat j7 per regiment? (a few more for a brigade) plus, of course, two seat jj7?

I would really recommend not counting in the twin seaters with regular j7s, at least not until we have some firm confirmation those have the same subsystems as combat planes.

A.Man said:

China needs to Keep building J-7's! More J-7's sold to foreign countries, less F-35's for the US to suck big bucks from poor brothers in the world.

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Developing countries might opt for the FC-17 instead of the J-7, so where's the demand for them?

Blackstone said:

Developing countries might opt for the FC-17 instead of the J-7, so where's the demand for them?

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These J-7 are ultra cheap and will not required much additional step up training from their current doctrine!

Depending on their nearby threat. Some countries even basically do not view BVR and datalink as essential for their airforce.

JF-17 is consider cheap to many western 4th gen fighter but you need to revamp the whole training program in order to maximise the JF-17 potential and all this will further add up cost. AWACS,datalink, develop BVR doctrine and procedure which means additional training besides dogfight. All this need additional sophisticated infrastructure to support 4th gen fighter.

I think lots of poor countries will still look for J-7 type of fighter.

Lion said:

These J-7 are ultra cheap and will not required much additional step up training from their current doctrine!

Depending on their nearby threat. Some countries even basically do not view BVR and datalink as essential for their airforce.

JF-17 is consider cheap to many western 4th gen fighter but you need to revamp the whole training program in order to maximise the JF-17 potential and all this will further add up cost. AWACS,datalink, develop BVR doctrine and procedure which means additional training besides dogfight. All this need additional sophisticated infrastructure to support 4th gen fighter.

I think lots of poor countries will still look for J-7 type of fighter.

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China has L-9 and L-15 trainer/light fighter-attack to sell the poorest countries, right?

Lion said:

J-8F are reported still in production. J-6 is no more in service. J-7 are no more in production and except JL-9, another variant of J-7 but expected to be quickly supersede by JL-10. J-7 are also reported to be retired quickly.

J-8F are expected to be in service in the continuous years. It has good range, payload , great high attitude performance and house a decent radar. It is the first multi role fighter produced by PRC. It is not as useless as many think.

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Please tell me it's for the export market because it boggles the mind what PLAAF is doing... why would you still be producing brand new J-8s when you've been producing the J-10 for so many years now and J-20, J-31s etc in the not so distant future?
It's like Boeing still producing F-4 Phantoms!

No, the JZ-8F is not being exported, they are strictly for PLAAF (and a few for PLANAF).

It is no doubt considered adequate for the recce job, it is presumably fairly cheap and it is very fast. I see no real problem in continuing to use and build it.

Totoro said:

Didn't we say back on china defence that satellite images seem to point to 24 combat j7 per regiment? (a few more for a brigade) plus, of course, two seat jj7?

I would really recommend not counting in the twin seaters with regular j7s, at least not until we have some firm confirmation those have the same subsystems as combat planes.

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I do not think so, and it certainly looks to me as if 24 would be a minimum. The evidence is not very conclusive, which is why I did not give a precise figure. I shall try to look more into the question.

In contrast, I am very definitive that J-8 II regiments have 28, plus 4 JJ-7A. It is difficult to believe that J-7 regiments would have fewer planes.

JJ-7A at least has 23 mm guns, so some combat capability it must have.

Blackstone said:

China has L-9 and L-15 trainer/light fighter-attack to sell the poorest countries, right?

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JL-9 Is essentially a mod J-7 but the 2 seat variant might reduces its raw dogfight abilities. L-15 is a different beast, quite similar to FC-1. Therefore price will be higher than J-7.

I don't know about serials as proof, but as far as satellite imagery goes, multiple images of each of these airfields, over a span of several years show the following:

** anshan. alleged 1st division, 3rd regiment.

never more than 16 j8 planes.


** qiqihar. 21st div, 62nd reg.

never more than 16 j8 planes.


**Shenyang/Yu Hung Tun. alleged 16th division, 46th regiment. supposedly recon regiment.

Never more than 20 J8 planes. Interestingly enough, on every image there are both 4-5 j7 (probably jj7) and 4-5 q5 (q5l?) planes.


**FTTC

never more than 8 j8 planes.


** urmuqi base. 109th brigade.
never more than 18 j8 planes. (plus quite a few j7, more than just for training purposes)


** gaomi. 12th div, 35th reg.
never more than 15 j8 planes.


** shanghai base. 78th brigade
never more than 23 j8 planes, and even that was back in 2006. two more recent photographs show 13 j8 planes.


** shanghai base. 93rd brigade
this is supposedly recce base. never more than 8 j8 planes. interestingly, it also repeatedly features quite a lot, about a dozen, of j7 and q5 looking planes.


** foshan. 2nd div, 4th reg.
never more than 18 j8. again, both a few q5 and j7 looking planes as well.

** dingxin. 14th base. test center
never moer than 16 j8.


Now for PLANAF bases:

**jiaozhou. 5th div, 15th reg
never more than 12 j8 planes.


** lingshui. 9th div, 25th reg.
never more than 16 j8 planes.


I will repeat once again that these are not just one off images. Each of these airfields has a few, sometimes as much as four different images from different times and the numbers are either less or as high as mentioned. I find it highly unlikely that on so many different occasions a good deal of the squadron was removed from the apron, for whatever pruposes. Yes, planes do fly and they do go to maintenance but at least 95% of the time they sit on the apron. (or in shelters, but here there werent any shelters.)


There are way too many j7 bases to do this but from ones i did check they too seem to feature closer to 24 combat planes than anything else. (maybe up to 30 with training conversion ones)