Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
The Chinese people are not casualty averse when it deems and sees that it's fighting for something worthy of cause.
To be fair, projecting the past onto the future may require caution.
In the 1950s fertility rate was different.

I don't want to sound cynical (all lives are equal), but for the current generation of families in China, potential loss of that single child represents a complete disaster and crush of all hopes.
Even if China(unlike, say South Korea,Japan or... Taiwan itself, yeah) isn't likely to meet with a deficit of recruits anytime soon, willingness to lose them may very well be just as low.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
To be fair, projecting the past onto the future may require caution.
In the 1950s fertility rate was different.

I don't want to sound cynical (all lives are equal), but for the current generation of families in China, potential loss of that single child represents a complete disaster and crush of all hopes.
Even if China(unlike, say South Korea,Japan or... Taiwan itself, yeah) isn't likely to meet with a deficit of recruits anytime soon, willingness to lose them may very well be just as low.
And China isn’t using 1950s technology either.
China has invested tremendously to give its troops the weapons, training and numbers needed to minimise possible combat losses, as all responsible governments should. Losses are inevitable in war, but in any war over Taiwan, it won’t be the PLA who is on the wrong side of tech and firepower today, so it should not even suffer comparable numbers of casualties compared to Taiwan

To be frank, I don’t think loosing a child would be anything other than a complete and crushing disaster for any modern family, no matter the number of children.

But would you cast doubt on any other country’s population’s willingness to endure such loss to fight off foreign invasion? Because that’s essentially what TI will be. If TI is allowed to happen today, American military bases will appear tomorrow.

Taiwan isn’t a war of choice for China. That’s the critical difference. Not some wishful thinking about the possible impact on the one child policy, which was never implemented as strictly as westerners with axes to grind always thinks. Especially not in the rural countryside where most PLA infantry recruits come from.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
To be frank, I don’t think loosing a child would be anything other than a complete and crushing disaster for any modern family, no matter the number of children.
Historically it ultimately wasn't.

Problem is that losing a single grown-up child is essentially unfixable, and carries down not just the investment of a lifetime (remember recent sarcasm about 3rd child?), but also hope for the next generation.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Historically it ultimately wasn't.

Problem is that losing a single grown-up child is essentially unfixable, and carries down not just the investment of a lifetime (remember recent sarcasm about 3rd child?), but also hope for the next generation.

You do realise people die all the time in real life right? Accidents, illness and other natural causes kills far more every year than any realistic military casualties projections from a war to liberate Taiwan.

It’s pure ludicrous to apply individual family impact on a country or society.

Hell, just America lost 400k+ to covid, is the sky falling on them? Please get a grip.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
It’s pure ludicrous to apply individual family impact on a country or society.
We've seen this impact pretty well during Chechnya, on one of the societies traditionally viewed as resilient, and where the state didn't try birth control policies.
It's one hell of an impact.

Estimating impact in China is aggravated by the fact that we have no reference points: PRC hasn't fought for more than 4 decades.

Hell, just America lost 400k+ to covid, is the sky falling on them? Please get a grip.
And? Try fighting a war with 400000 deaths in America, you'll get a very different result.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
We've seen this impact pretty well during Chechnya, on one of the societies traditionally viewed as resilient, and where the state didn't try birth control policies.
It's one hell of an impact.

Estimating impact in China is aggravated by the fact that we have no reference points: PRC hasn't fought for more than 4 decades.


And? Try fighting a war with 400000 deaths in America, you'll get a very different result.

You obviously haven't studied history at all, have you? Chinese have fought wars with Japan and loss many people. People are willing to make these sacrifices if it's for the defend the motherland.

Taiwan is part of that motherland. And now let's look at the USA. Are they willing to loose their sons and daughters to fight in as far off land. Recent history should tell you the answer is no.

Come on, the U.S. are pulling out of Afghanistan after declaring proudly on an aircraft carrier "missing accomplished"! When the bodybags starting to come back we will see how appetizing and willing the U.S. is to defend Taiwan.

Make no mistake, although U.S. is still No1 military in the world, but this time they are not fighting some bloke on a camel.
 

weig2000

Captain
You do realise people die all the time in real life right? Accidents, illness and other natural causes kills far more every year than any realistic military casualties projections from a war to liberate Taiwan.

It’s pure ludicrous to apply individual family impact on a country or society.

Hell, just America lost 400k+ to covid, is the sky falling on them? Please get a grip.

"Minor" correction: the total US COVID death is 610k as of now.
 

Kaine

Junior Member
Registered Member
You do realise people die all the time in real life right? Accidents, illness and other natural causes kills far more every year than any realistic military casualties projections from a war to liberate Taiwan.

It’s pure ludicrous to apply individual family impact on a country or society.

Hell, just America lost 400k+ to covid, is the sky falling on them? Please get a grip.
This convo is offtopic however I will say some words on this.

The US covid deaths are primarily "old" people while the dead on a hypothetical Taiwan invasion would be young soldiers. Obviously families and communities place more importance to the youth than on the old people.

If a family loses its only son then that would be a devastating blow to it. Now however if another family loses a 70+ old man to covid thats more "acceptable"

Thats how life is "measured" on our society. Imagine if these 600 000 deaths in he US were all 20-30 years old... There would be uprisings and mass rebellions the same day..

Young life perceived value > Old life perceived value

Now I think we should go back to topic as this convo is going in a theorycrafting territory
 

weig2000

Captain
This convo is offtopic however I will say some words on this.

The US covid deaths are primarily "old" people while the dead on a hypothetical Taiwan invasion would be young soldiers. Obviously families and communities place more importance to the youth than on the old people.

If a family loses its only son then that would be a devastating blow to it. Now however if another family loses a 70+ old man to covid thats more "acceptable"

Thats how life is "measured" on our society. Imagine if these 600 000 deaths in he US were all 20-30 years old... There would be uprisings and mass rebellions the same day..

Young life perceived value > Old life perceived value

Now I think we should go back to topic as this convo is going in a theorycrafting territory

You're making non-sensical comparison here, @voyager1.

No country or society want to lose hundreds of young people for no reason. Heck, not even old people. You can not talk these kinds of stuff out of context.

We're talking about defending a country's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We're also talking about a very large and powerful country defending its core national interest. You should never underestimate any country's will to defend its core interest, but you should particularly never underestimate China's or Chinese people's. History is not irrelevant. In China's case, it's what motivates the Chinese people for the last hundred years to defend and work for a better and strong China, and that's largely what have gotten China where it is today. Even if you don't want to look back too far into the history, just look at what the young Chinese soldiers had bravely done in last year's Ladakh conflict. And if that's not enough, just look at how thousands of Chinese young medical workers all over the country, mostly born in the '90s or even '00s, to sign up and send themselves in harm's way to Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID breakout. Remember, this was the time when we knew little about the virus and these young people knew they would be working at the frontline.

Here, we're not talking about sending young Chinese soldiers to a war of choice in a distant foreign land, like Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq. We're talking about defending your own country, on your territory. And your country is a very powerful one that can equip you with all kinds of modern weapons to do your duty.

If Taiwanese government and indeed many Taiwanese are determined to go independent, you don't think mainland Chinese would be even more determined and prevail in the inevitable war?

And, as I liked to say, if the US has find it has 100 reasons to intervene in a potential war on Taiwan and sacrifice many lives along the way, China and the Chinese people will have more than a million reasons to do the same. It'll be a contest of will.

Taiwan is legally, historically, geographically, culturally, and ethnically part of China. It is strategically important to the future security and prosperity of China. It is also an extremely charged and emotional issue for China and Chinese people.

You've been wading too much and too deep into many China-related issues without knowing much of them in your previous SDF life and the current reincarnation. While I don't want to accuse you with malice intent, your current one is borderline insulting.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Meh..I just finished reading the long winded article. I don't know what qualifies this particular take as a good read since there's absolutely nothing the author has put forward that hasn't been said or written by countless others within the security-industrial-think tanks that's blanketed Washington D.C.

The guiding principles and understanding from this author and like him is the continued misunderstanding whether it's deliberate or by design with respect to China's leadership party, the Chinese people and the country at large. China's history is littered or awashed in bloody conflicts in the tune of millions casualty that some ended in disasters after the other. The Chinese people are not casualty averse when it deems and sees that it's fighting for something worthy of cause. The country fought against the almighty Americans and her minions in the 1950s when China was frankly was at one of it's weakest point of the new Republic. It hesitated, deliberated but once the leadership core understood that not fighting against the Americans is going to result into a strategic strangulation.

The Taiwan Issue has always been stressed since the establishment of the PRC that Taiwan is a vital part of ONE CHINA. If the PRC was prepared to recapture Taiwan before when it wasn't a nuclear power, economically anemic and virtually isolated from the world, why do most ignorant Americans that's supposed to be erudite choose to ignore the reality that China will fight tooth and nail, aware of the realities of war that deaths=sacrifices will be necessary to ensure the country remains whole.

I remain convinced that America tends to project most of their weaknesses unto it's enemies with implicit biased mixed into their pseudo analysis resulting into the litany of failures most of the elite class are stubbornly refusing to see and recognize. Iraq they drank the America is super duper liked when their elites thought that they will be welcome with open arms and greeted by the majority as Liberators. They assumed that 80,000 -100,000 troops are what's needed for the entirety of the war and that Phase IV operations wasn't important and that Military OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR (MOOTW) are for pussies. Let's not forget that Iraq War contingency was highly studied and war gamed extensively along with budget allocations to prepare for the fight the Military and civilian elites pushed for. Now can anyone here tell me with a straight face that their military operations was a stupendous success? And let's not f..ng forget that the Iraqi Armed forces wasn't exactly a world beating force especially not after it was sanctioned to death.

All this talk and stupid prosaic analysis by the America security elites are useless if they are stuck with the thoughts and ideas that war isn't a brutal f..ng business. That their casualties will always be minimized while exacting untold high casualties on their enemies and by doing so the war will look winnable in their ignorant and arrogant minds. War is a battle of will and to assume that the Chinese people will fold because they might face high casualty rate if they try to recapture the island of Taiwan (a growing number of dudes are being turned into mush) are living in fantasy land.
I think it is really, really funny that these articles keep pushing the idea of "increased Chinese aggression" from some speech or something else Xi Jinping says. It's like, please point out the time in PRC history where the leaders said "we don't want to reunify with Taiwan" or "we would never use military force to reunify".

They also love to trot out any increase in capabilities (new planes, new ships, etc.) as some kind of proof of military buildup. As if the PRC should stick with flying J-7s and sailing Ludas.

Basically a theatre of the absurd.

I guess these people have to justify their paycheques somehow... Even if America was explicit, "We will use military force to defend Taiwan", then it wouldn't change anything. This is already the calculus that the PLA is using. They aren't planning like "Oh well, let's hope the US doesn't come...", They are not planning to play to a draw, "We're proud just to be here!", They are planning overwhelming force to defeat any opposition to their goal. Maybe most of these writers are kids Tee Ball coaches, lol
 
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