PLAN Type 035/039/091/092 Submarine Thread

balance

Junior Member
Chinese current submarine force

Dear friends,

Happy Lunar New Year. I found this article about the analysis of the current PLAN submarine force. What do you guys think about the accuracy of this analysis? Especially when it says: "the number of Chinese submarines will surpass US by the end of the decade (2010), but it will lag in performance."
Please let me know, and discuss it.

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International Herald Tribune
U.S. military officials wary of China's expanding fleet of submarines
By David Lague
Thursday, February 7, 2008

BEIJING: For a procession of senior U.S. military commanders who have visited China in recent years, the complaint has become almost routine.

As part of a sustained military buildup, they say, China is investing heavily in so-called area-denial weapons without explaining why it needs them.

The term area-denial weapons refers to a combination of armaments, technology and tactics that could be used to dominate a specific area or keep opposing forces at bay in a conflict. And one of the most formidable examples U.S. commanders identify is the Chinese Navy's rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear and conventional submarines.

"I would say that the U.S. feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor in chief of the magazine Kanwa Defence Review.

"China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing," Chang said.

U.S. and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, along with dozens of older, obsolete types. "China is capable of serial production of modern diesel-electric submarines and is moving forward with new nuclear submarines," the Pentagon said last year in its annual report on the Chinese military.

By the end of the decade, experts say, China will have more submarines than the United States, although it will still lag in overall capability.

In a conflict, these Chinese submarines - many armed with state-of-the-art torpedoes and anti-ship missiles - would sharply increase the threat to enemy warships approaching the strategically important waterways of North Asia, according to security experts.

On a visit to China last month, the senior U.S. military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said the Pentagon was continuing to monitor the development of China's area-denial weapons, including submarines.

"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," Keating told reporters in Beijing. Like other U.S. commanders, he also called on China to be more open about its plans.

If China were more transparent about the need for these weapons, it would improve trust and reduce the danger of crisis or conflict, Keating said.

"In submarine operations in particular, because of the medium in which they are conducted, underwater, there is greater potential, in my opinion, for inadvertent activity that could be misconstrued or misunderstood," he told reporters.

Under pressure from Washington, senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly tailored to defending China's interests and that it poses no threat to any other nation.

"The distance between the Chinese and U.S. militaries is big," said General Chen Bingde, chief of general staff in Beijing of the People's Liberation Army. "If you fear China's military buildup, you don't have much courage."

While the administration of President George W. Bush continues to press Beijing for transparency, most foreign security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, believe China's unstated objectives are relatively clear.

They say that China plans to use its submarines and other area-denial weapons to delay or deter a U.S. intervention in case of conflict over Taiwan. China regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and has warned regularly that it would use force to prevent Taiwan from moving toward formal independence.

Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, almost certainly the first line of any American response to a Taiwan crisis, according to security experts.

In conjunction with attacks on military surveillance satellites, regional U.S. bases and communication networks, the Chinese military would attempt to keep U.S. forces at a distance while attempting to overwhelm the island's defenses, they say.

"This is precisely what the submarines are for," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "They can bottle up and deny an enemy access to any given area; in this case that means the U.S. Pacific fleet."

On previous occasions of high tension over Taiwan, Washington has deployed aircraft carriers to neighboring waters, sending a signal to China that it should not use force against Taiwan.

But in a clear demonstration of the increasing vulnerability of these warships, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines was able to remain undetected as it shadowed the U.S. carrier Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, in late 2006. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.

For some China experts in the U.S. military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that ranked with China's destruction in January 2007 of one of its own obsolete weather satellites with an antisatellite missile. In so doing, the Chinese Navy demonstrated that it could challenge the most powerful surface combatants of the U.S. Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also gave evidence that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.

"The U.S. had no idea it was there," said Behm. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."

Submarine construction is clearly a top priority for the Chinese Navy, and foreign analysts have noted that in recent years it has concurrently developed four - possibly five - classes of new, locally designed and built submarines.

Some experts have suggested that China is taking the same path as Germany and Japan, which once relied heavily on submarines in a bid to compete with the British and U.S. navies.

The attraction of submarines, the experts say, is that they are extremely cost-effective weapons compared with surface warships. For a relatively modest investment, stealthy submarines can threaten much more valuable military and cargo vessels and attack targets on land with missiles.

The suspicion alone that a submarine may be in the area can force an adversary to operate more cautiously, while diverting resources to expensive and complex detection and tracking.

In further evidence of progress in submarine technology, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at a Beijing exhibition in July celebrating the 80th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army. The official People's Daily newspaper reported that two submarines of this class are now in service.

In October, Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted on a Google Earth satellite image what appeared to be two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built another submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.

And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia. These submarines are among the quietest and most difficult to detect, according to veteran submariners.

Experts say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.

Analysts have also suggested that some of China's conventional submarines have been fitted with so-called air-independent propulsion systems. This would allow the submarines to patrol for extended periods under water without needing to draw in air for the diesel engines used to charge their batteries.

A number of naval experts have noticed that the growth in China's submarine power has occurred while U.S. antisubmarine warfare capability has declined from its peak during the Cold War.

What is more, in case of conflict over Taiwan, Chinese submarines would have the advantage of operating in a favorable environment for undersea warfare.

The waters of the East China Sea, South China Sea and Yellow Sea are of uneven depth, with considerable background noise, complex thermal behavior and strong currents. These factors make it very difficult, if not impossible, for surface ships and aircraft to detect stealthy submarines, even with the most advanced passive sonar and other sensors.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Considering how the US Navy considered using the CONFORM sub design with fold-down masts, I'm surprised no one else has bothered to use that and still use sail mounted masts instead.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Happy Lunar New Year. I found this article about the analysis of the current PLAN submarine force. What do you guys think about the accuracy of this analysis? Especially when it says: "the number of Chinese submarines will surpass US by the end of the decade (2010), but it will lag in performance."
Please let me know, and discuss it.

I seriously doubt the numbers. The US has over 50 LA class subs, I think all the Thresher class ones have been retired; 18 Ohio class, 3 Seawolf and 3 Virginia class. I think one or two more Virginia class may enter service before 2010.

China currently has like 56 subs, but some of these are Mings and Romeos which are considered obsolete and only for training purposes. Potentially they can harbor some surprises in a littoral environment though. Most of these subs are conventionals not nuclear subs, and so they don't have the same capability. There are 12 Kilos, 8 being new, 4 not so new. The Songs may be more of a greater threat and there appears to be 14 to 16 of them. The Yuans are getting into general production and there seems to be around 3 of them now at least.

There appears to be around 10 or more nuclear submarines, but 4 or 5 belong to the old and noisy Han and Xia class. However, these are being improved and upgraded, and at least one Han is known to be seriously upgraded. There seems to be a Han and Xia upgrade program going on, but there is little news about the status. So the operational status of the Han is an unknown beyond one or two that may have been upgraded. The Xia was last seen in Google Earth being seriously refitted, but I have not seen a new picture of it.

Numbers of the 093 and 094 are speculation and estimate but from reports, photos and images of Google Earth, we can estimate at least a projected 4 to 5 094 and an equal to slightly higher number of 093 to protect them.

We are all going with estimates and speculations because precisely there is little transparency on the Chinese program. Which is what the US wants. What is the real status on the Hans? how many are operating? How many have been upgraded? What is the real status on the Xia? Is it operating? How many 093s are out there? How many 094s are out there? How many Songs and Yuans are really out there?

China does appear to have a faster rate of production. Since the Seawolf, the USN only inducted a grand total of 6 subs (3 Seawolf and 3 Virginia) though two more are in the process of construction. In that same period, China acquired 12 Kilos---8 commissioned in 2006 alone; 14 to 16 Songs of which at least 10 were built in 2004 to early 2007; at least 3 Yuans, two of which were finished in 2007; and an unknown number of 093s and 094s. It appeared that China built at least 3 nuclear subs in 2007 alone.

So in 2004 to 2007, China built more submarines than anyone in the face of the Earth combined, and commissioned 8 new Kilos on top of that. But of course, there is a question how this production rate is going to be sustained, which I don't think they will build 3 to 6 subs in a year every year. I think they will build all what they need for now, then the shipyards will attend to another ship type or class, or attend to a new generation of sub designs. The current designs of PLAN subs are much greatly improved over past designs and the capability gap with the latest Western designs have closed, but not right there yet with the best. What they have now is a fertile ground of experimentation and experience, and the next generation of PLAN nuclear and conventional subs are what you should watch out for.
 

maozedong

Banned Idiot
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

no one knows rather U.S has been researching fold-down masts sail sub, but what I know U.S SeaWolf class sub is strongest attack SSN,
But because it cost too expensive, the U.S is now switching to replace Virginia-class SSN, which cost cheaper than the Seawolf-class lot.
U.S military said the number of PLAN subs will surpass than U.S by 2010,used this saying,USN got approved create one SSN annual,until 2010 U.S will create two SSN annual.
what I think not surprise the number of PLAN subs will surpass U.S around 2010, China most create are conventional subs, but U.S only create nuclear sub.
 
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mxiong

Junior Member
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Type 094 SSBN in Hainan? Any thought on the authenticity? Personally I'm not sure...

25_74372_20691d6194d09cc.jpg
 
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crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

You mean this? Seems to be authentic...so far. We already knew from another photograph that 094 is indeed in Hainan. The tetrapods is used in the breakwater, and the Sanya sub base is ringed by a breakwater with tetrapods. The picture appears to have come from 007, and he has posted many good pictures before.

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Too big in kb to be posted her, and looks like its being censored and removed from the bbs.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

That looks PSed to me. It looks like a reverse shot of the two 094s in dock. That little 094 in the background behind the bow just looks out of place.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

If it's PS why is it being taken down from mainland BBS all of a sudden? You won't have nothing to fear if the pic is a phoney.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Just an opinion. Like I've said before, I'm no expert on these things. To me it's that tiny sub in the background behind the bow. It's just looks out of place.
 
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