PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

N00813

Junior Member
Registered Member
While I am sure the PRC have thought of this, the US and its allies in the region is consolidating their ring of containment, deploying more forces and developing countermeasures (so does the PRC, but US and allies are not as complacent in the region as they were in the past after the early deploymeny of hypersonic missiles by the PLA caused shock).

The underlying assumption here is that the US & allies can produce & output more weapons, equipment, men etc. than China
Is this true?

Remember we are 2 years into the Russia Ukraine war -- great opportunity for NATO, JPN, SK etc to ramp up their war manufacturing under peacetime conditions at home, unmolested, with a great political excuse
Yet Russia STILL outproduces them on munitions, even 2 years later, despite the GDP difference?
 

Frederik_Chopin

New Member
Registered Member
The underlying assumption here is that the US & allies can produce & output more weapons, equipment, men etc. than China
Is this true?

Remember we are 2 years into the Russia Ukraine war -- great opportunity for NATO, JPN, SK etc to ramp up their war manufacturing under peacetime conditions at home, unmolested, with a great political excuse
Yet Russia STILL outproduces them on munitions, even 2 years later, despite the GDP difference?

Hmmm not quite, I am confident that the PRC could outproduce US plus the regional allies, my point is that US and their regional allies will be much more prepared in case Taiwan separatist decides to force PRC for armed reunification. For example increase of Guam's interceptor and strengthening fortification, Japan rearming, methodical gutting of their peace constitution, them getting cruise missiles and so on. US, regional allies and NATO learning and redefining the definition of "intervening" from the Russo-Ukrainian war.

My point is, US and regional allies taking China seriously, learning the grey zone of interventions, and no longer looking down on PRC's capabilities, that will only increase the potential cost of armed reunification.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Hmmm not quite, I am confident that the PRC could outproduce US plus the regional allies, my point is that US and their regional allies will be much more prepared in case Taiwan separatist decides to force PRC for armed reunification. For example increase of Guam's interceptor and strengthening fortification, Japan rearming, methodical gutting of their peace constitution, them getting cruise missiles and so on. US, regional allies and NATO learning and redefining the definition of "intervening" from the Russo-Ukrainian war.

My point is, US and regional allies taking China seriously, learning the grey zone of interventions, and no longer looking down on PRC's capabilities, that will only increase the potential cost of armed reunification.
But this is assuming that their backs are to the wall in regards to militarily confronting China over this issue. But in reality, the more powerful China becomes, the more these countries, especially the small non-US countries, will start to tell themselves that this is not their business and not their headache or risk to take. Just leaving things alone is a perfectly good way to handle it, especially because a PRC takeover of the ROC is America's embarassment, not theirs. Nobody is going to say France or Germany failed; they will say America failed. And when China develops to become even more powerful, surpassing the US economically, technologically and militarily, even America, which will be used to playing second fiddle by then, will find it much more appetizing to say that they never supported Taiwan's independence and always adhered to the One China Policy. When everyone sees that to fight China over this issue is to put their own lives on the line, and very likely end up dead, then the cost reunification will get much much lower for China.
 

lcloo

Captain
Lai probably went further than the US would have preferred in directly calling Taiwan a nation.
He did, on the first day as president of ROC. That angered Mainland China and caused United Sharp Sword 2024-A to begin. Tsai only dared to speak of two shores two system. Lai mentioned two countries and that Mainland China should not interfer with another country that is ROC.

And United Sharp Sword 2024-A came into action just days after Lai's speech. An indication that PLA has war plans/war games well preprared , and ready to act at short notice.

Lai is placing Taiwan at the edge of AR, if he went further by declaring an independence and discard using ROC and used seperate names like ROT(aiwan), hell will break the day after.
 
Last edited:
Hmmm not quite, I am confident that the PRC could outproduce US plus the regional allies, my point is that US and their regional allies will be much more prepared in case Taiwan separatist decides to force PRC for armed reunification. For example increase of Guam's interceptor and strengthening fortification, Japan rearming, methodical gutting of their peace constitution, them getting cruise missiles and so on. US, regional allies and NATO learning and redefining the definition of "intervening" from the Russo-Ukrainian war.

My point is, US and regional allies taking China seriously, learning the grey zone of interventions, and no longer looking down on PRC's capabilities, that will only increase the potential cost of armed reunification.

Are you taking into account that for each year that passes, the production gap shifts further in China's favor and so does the technological gap? Today, the US still holds a technological advantage in certain domains.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Are you taking into account that for each year that passes, the production gap shifts further in China's favor and so does the technological gap?
Indeed, the worst case strategic scenario that China could have faced was back in the 1988-1991 period with Ukraine and Georgia in NATO, Russia and Iran neutralized and AUKUS/Quad mobilized with US forces operating out of Indonesia, and even then victory wouldn't be guaranteed for the US et al. In this modern situation by comparison China is now fully capable of doing the Pacific War in reverse against even a fully mobilized US and vassals in a total war situation even before taking into account potential Chinese-allied combatants, and this will become more apparent in the next 12 months.
 

no_name

Colonel
While I am sure the PRC have thought of this, the US and its allies in the region is consolidating their ring of containment, deploying more forces and developing countermeasures (so does the PRC, but US and allies are not as complacent in the region as they were in the past after the early deploymeny of hypersonic missiles by the PLA caused shock).

Considering this, the longer the issue of reunification is delayed, it is difficult to imagine the PLA having an easier time in case they are forced to use force in the future. The homefront advantage is still there but it won't be as big as it was before as time goes. The cost for the development of measures and countermeasures, the deployment of forces by the PLA and the US plus their allies in the region will also go up.

I think (unless the PRC is developing another trump card in it's arsenal like the hyeprsonic missiles in the past) it's already past the point of minimum casualties for armed reunification, the cost for armed reunification will only go up from this point (bar US suddenly collapsing).
That's why there is the Russo-Ukraine conflict, as well as the on-going Israel-middle-east conflict.
Those three will tighten together if they have too. We know which one US will choose when it comes down to Daddy vs Taiwan vs comedian.

p.s. War has already broke out on the economic/currency front as soon as the Russo-Ukrainian war started. It's been over two years now. US cannot keep the interest high forever. She want China to have a full scale war with Taiwan but I predict the most that China will do is a blockade. Philippines on the other hand...
 
Last edited:

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The answer lies in Huludao. Once PLAN has a significant number of capable SSNs it can interdict US supplies and reinforcements crossing the Pacific as well as supplies going to ROK & Japan. Basically game over unless Japan and ROK don't mind starving to death for the sake of the GAE.
No need to go that route. Chinese industry should be able to produce enough guided munitions to bomb South Korea, Japan and Philippines back to stone ages, regardless what the US does.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
While I am sure the PRC have thought of this, the US and its allies in the region is consolidating their ring of containment, deploying more forces and developing countermeasures (so does the PRC, but US and allies are not as complacent in the region as they were in the past after the early deploymeny of hypersonic missiles by the PLA caused shock).

Considering this, the longer the issue of reunification is delayed, it is difficult to imagine the PLA having an easier time in case they are forced to use force in the future. The homefront advantage is still there but it won't be as big as it was before as time goes. The cost for the development of measures and countermeasures, the deployment of forces by the PLA and the US plus their allies in the region will also go up.

I think (unless the PRC is developing another trump card in it's arsenal like the hyeprsonic missiles in the past) it's already past the point of minimum casualties for armed reunification, the cost for armed reunification will only go up from this point (bar US suddenly collapsing).

That’s the typical American-centric world view based entirely on racism (Chinese can only copy and can’t innovate) and projecting a revisionist history (America is the arsenal of democracy) that never truly existed in the first place and is utterly nonexistent in today’s world where China is the factory of the world and America genuinely struggles to build even basic low tech legacy arms like artillery shells in operationally meaningful volumes.

China doesn’t just have one ace up its sleeve in the form of hypersonics. It is increasingly gaining and even leading across the board in both quantity and quality. Where America still hold a lead, it is usually as a result of inheritance from its earlier golden age. But that dividend is fast eroding and age expiring.

As time passes, China’s advantages will only increase. This is why the Americans are so desperate for a war now or in the near future, where they still have a fighting chance. Give it another 10 years and China’s military advantage will be so overwhelming that it might as well be described as dominance.

If you just look at the areas of focus and growth that China is pursuing, it’s abundantly clear that Beijing has long determined that it will win any fight for Taiwan, and is now setting itself up to take the next major prize, which is Japan.

I think China has rightfully concluded that Japan will be fully involved in any fight over Taiwan. So it is going to settle new and old accounts all at once with the Japanese.

This is where Russia and NK becomes relevant, and why China is investing in carriers and LHDs and cruisers, and stealth bombers. All of which are massive overkill for Taiwan.

I don’t think China will immediately go for a full invasion of the Japanese home islands. But I do see it looking to take Okinawa and other key second island chain islands to repeat America’s WWII strategy of starving the Japanese home islands while also conducting massive bombing of Japanese military and industrial targets throughout its home islands with an aim of forcing a capitulation.

At the same time, pushing China’s security perimeter to the second island chain will safeguard China’s industrial heartland along its east coast and China will basically convert to war economy beast mode and just spam unprecedented numbers of naval warships, warplanes and armour for a few years until it is ready to invade the Japanese home islands with as much overwhelming force as it wants.
 
Top