PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar

Temstar

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ROCAF pilot now complaining in open letter and shit talking Lai about relentless pressure they are under, particularly in wake of the 520 speech and the tensions it caused:
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Says out of 10 pilots, 9 are thinking of quitting and 1 is thinking about getting promoted to desk job due to overwork and cancelled leave. The pilot who wrote the letter is about to quit himself this year.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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Temstar said:
ROCAF pilot now complaining in open letter and shit talking Lai about relentless pressure they are under, particularly in wake of the 520 speech and the tensions it caused:
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Says out of 10 pilots, 9 are thinking of quitting and 1 is thinking about getting promoted to desk job due to overwork and cancelled leave. The pilot who wrote the letter is about to quit himself this year.
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That pilot should've just go steal an F-16V and fly it to one of the coastal airports in Fujian Province.
 
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Moonscape

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Taiban said:
A strategy full of intentional ambiguity US press release in response to PLA Joint Sword 2024A

"The United States remains committed to its longstanding one China policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances."


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Lai probably went further than the US would have preferred in directly calling Taiwan a nation.
 
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Moonscape

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Great minds think alike :cool:

Moonscape said:
I think a good response to Lai's inauguration speech will be for the PLAN to begin regular patrols between Penghu and the island of Taiwan. It's a significant salami slice that further wittles away Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, but not entirely unprecedented in light of the post-Pelosi exercise and the new Kinmen patrols, so it's unlikely to provoke a substantive response. In general, every time Taiwan attempts to move towards de jure indepdence, the mainland should salami slice away a proportional bit of Taiwan's de facto sovereignty.
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BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese defense spokesperson on Friday said that every time "Taiwan independence" forces make provocations, the countermeasures will be advanced further, until the complete reunification of China is achieved.
Wu Qian, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, made the remarks in response to a media query related to the ongoing joint drills around Taiwan Island launched by the Chinese People's Liberation Army. ■
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Frederik_Chopin

Frederik_Chopin

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While I am sure the PRC have thought of this, the US and its allies in the region is consolidating their ring of containment, deploying more forces and developing countermeasures (so does the PRC, but US and allies are not as complacent in the region as they were in the past after the early deploymeny of hypersonic missiles by the PLA caused shock).

Considering this, the longer the issue of reunification is delayed, it is difficult to imagine the PLA having an easier time in case they are forced to use force in the future. The homefront advantage is still there but it won't be as big as it was before as time goes. The cost for the development of measures and countermeasures, the deployment of forces by the PLA and the US plus their allies in the region will also go up.

I think (unless the PRC is developing another trump card in it's arsenal like the hyeprsonic missiles in the past) it's already past the point of minimum casualties for armed reunification, the cost for armed reunification will only go up from this point (bar US suddenly collapsing).
 
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