PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Did you really, seriously, just say that China will capture Hawaii (or is capable of doing so)? Do you even have an idea of the number of fleet-on-fleet naval battles and logistics it will take for such an operation? Are you aware of the distance between Chinese coastline and Hawaii?
No, I said that China should develop the capability to threaten Hawaii and California. Alaska should be included in this list as well. Did the US have the ability to invade Okinawa at the start of WW2? Americans should learn that losing a world war has territorial consequences.

How difficult do you think it would be to take Hawaii if there is no more US navy?

Lmao. Ryukyuan people are now only 10-15% of the total population of those islands, rest being Japanese Yamato people. Good luck with freeing them from Japanese occupation.
What was the demographic situation on Sakhalin and the Kuril islands before WW2?

After the two world wars many regions became either French and British protectorates or US territories rather than being integrated properly into those countries. If China wins a Pacific war with the US, the same would happen again in the Pacific.

If China has no chance of a comprehensive victory over the US, then I don't think it would be worth it to fight such a war just for Taiwan. Any peace after such a reunification would be a 20 year armistice as the US will turn into a new Nazi Germany and prepare for the next war. If China is to fight, it needs to be ready to eliminate the future threat
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
What PLA really needs to do is to hold CONUS at risk of both nuclear and conventional attack. This requires, at a minimum:

-the silos in the Northern deserts to be filled with ICBMs;
- a huge increase in SSN numbers, all equipped with hypersonic LACM; and
- H20 in service in significant numbers

This I suspect will make the US think long and hard before intervening in a Taiwan scenario and, if it does, to leave off attacking mainland China.

Addition of what is needed:
- More TEL launchers for more IRBMs and ICBMs
- Expanding the Underground Great Wall network
- More 094B and 096 SSBNs armed with JL-2As and JL-3s
- More spare runways and airstrips for strategic bomber basing
- FOBS HGV missiles
- Sub-orbital hypersonic bombers
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The deal is officially confirmed. 4 more bases for a total of 9 in Philippines
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US military to gain expanded access to Philippines bases in efforts to counter China​

The Philippines will provide the United States with expanded access to its military bases, the two countries said Thursday, providing US forces with a greater strategic footing on the southeastern edge of the South China Sea close to self-ruled Taiwan.
The newly announced deal will give the US access to four more locations under an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) dating to 2014, allowing the US to rotate troops to a total of nine bases throughout the Philippines.
Speaking during a visit to Manila Thursday, US Defense Secretary Llyod Austin said the US and the Philippines remained committed to strengthening their mutual capacities to resist armed attack.
“That’s just part of our efforts to modernize our alliance. And these efforts are especially important as the People’s Republic of China continues to advance its illegitimate claims in the West Philippine Sea,” said Austin, referencing China’s increased presence in waters close to the Philippines.Austin did not give the location of the bases to which the US military will gain new access.
China warned of heightened tensions in the region following the move. The Philippines allowing US access to four defense sites on its territory has “escalated tension in the region and endangers regional peace and stability,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Thursday.
“Out of its selfish agenda, the US side has held up to the cold war. Regional countries should remain vigilant about this and avoid being used by the US,” Mao said.
Thursday’s announcement follows a spate of high-profile US military agreements throughout the region, including plans to share defense technologies with India, and plans to deploy new US Marine units to Japanese islands.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sure, I dont disagree. I am just making a point so that we don't take it for granted that space-based ISR would be available
Eh, you play space wars, everyone loses with Kessler syndrome. Plus the cost to send a missile up there is more than offset by the mass launches of cheap satellites we're seeing nowadays. It wouldn't make sense to deplete half your stockpile to only damage the enemy's space based ISR capabilities.

China doesn't take space for granted which is why there are dual use Kuaizhou-1A "TEL based solid rocket launchers". Why would you need rockets on TELs? They can be fitted as emergency satellite launchers to fly birds up for emergency recon during doomsday, or alternatively as an ICBM, also for doomsday.

It is also why PLASSF is both lofting higher orbit optical satellites and demonstrated satellite maneuver with Shijian-21. SSO and GEO isn't exactly a walk in the park to reach, after all.
 

bajingan

Senior Member
The deal is officially confirmed. 4 more bases for a total of 9 in Philippines
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For what i can understand these are bases to house troops and not ports and airbases to house warships and planes, as such it does not pose major threat to China yet

China should make it clear to the philipines, that any attack from the americans coming from their soil, PLA cannot guarantee the safety of philipine civillian government and thats including marcos
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
Any idea how viable and useful can the 快云 (Kuaiyun) near-space loitering UAV airships and the 飞云 (Feiyun) near-space loitering UAV crafts become as military ISR and navigation+guidance platforms for the PLA during wartime?

e9c85a55ly1gidj5ofcabj20u008q0wkz.jpg
These UAVs should be cheap to build, can be build in large numbers, and can be launched using conventional runways (for the Feiyun) and launching pads (for the Kuaiyun) with quicker and easier preparation than launching an ISR and/or navigation+guidance satellite.

Could be one way to quickly replenish wartime losses of near-space and space-based assets that are critical for the war effort.

As a note, they are part of the Five Clouds near-space and space-based projects currently being worked on by the CASIC.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
For what i can understand these are bases to house troops and not ports and airbases to house warships and planes, as such it does not pose major threat to China yet

China should make it clear to the philipines, that any attack from the americans coming from their soil, PLA cannot guarantee the safety of philipine civillian government and thats including marcos
talk is cheap, Might Is Right for America, Japan, and even some ASEAN countries.
if you don't stand up for your rights, then you are not counted as a worthy interlocutor.
In light of this development of Marcos talking peace in Beijing, then coming home to allow American forces more access to threaten China's core interests (if this isn't duplicity/treachery, I don't know what it is), it's time to take off that soft diplomacy glove cause it ain't working nor respected! Further appeals for talks only strengthen the image of China being weak and dares not fighting for its legitimate rights!! See, even the weak and p--r PH can stick its proverbial finger to China with impunity and China can only smile back! This isn't exactly how you would win friends and influence people.
China should commence the reclamation of Huangyan Shoal/Island TODAY. Serve them drinks, while showing them your Rifles.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
talk is cheap, Might Is Right for America, Japan, and even some ASEAN countries.
if you don't stand up for your rights, then you are not counted as a worthy interlocutor.
In light of this development of Marcos talking peace in Beijing, then coming home to allow American forces more access to threaten China's core interests (if this isn't duplicity/treachery, I don't know what it is), it's time to take off that soft diplomacy glove cause it ain't working nor respected! Further appeals for talks only strengthen the image of China being weak and dares not fighting for its legitimate rights!! See, even the weak and p--r PH can stick its proverbial finger to China with impunity and China can only smile back! This isn't exactly how you would win friends and influence people.
China should commence the reclamation of Huangyan Shoal/Island TODAY. Serve them drinks, while showing them your Rifles.
And when this action is wrongly and rightly seen by other ASEAN countries as nothing but furthering China's imperial ambition as they have been told endlessly by their white masters (U.S. NATO) by then requesting further deepening security alliance with AUKUS countries, QUAD, or even the revival and re-introduction of SEATO then what? What's the end game do you propose for the Chinese government to take?

What would or should be the Chinese steps when and if that situation arises? doesn't that particular, plausible scenario weakens China and her interest within her peripheral region rather than actually strengthen? Furthermore, how would you envision that the outcome you're calling for would not result or yield the opposite of what you feel will be the outcome.

How does that action you are calling for works in the long run for China's overall goal and it's ultimate aim of reunifying with the wayward island of Taiwan.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
talk is cheap, Might Is Right for America, Japan, and even some ASEAN countries.
if you don't stand up for your rights, then you are not counted as a worthy interlocutor.
In light of this development of Marcos talking peace in Beijing, then coming home to allow American forces more access to threaten China's core interests (if this isn't duplicity/treachery, I don't know what it is), it's time to take off that soft diplomacy glove cause it ain't working nor respected! Further appeals for talks only strengthen the image of China being weak and dares not fighting for its legitimate rights!! See, even the weak and p--r PH can stick its proverbial finger to China with impunity and China can only smile back! This isn't exactly how you would win friends and influence people.
China should commence the reclamation of Huangyan Shoal/Island TODAY. Serve them drinks, while showing them your Rifles.
In all fairness to your points I agree with you emphatically on what your wrote, my question and rebuttal was not meant to attack your ideas but want to flesh out your ideas to see how far and how serious you are with such approach. In any case, your mentality is no different than Mr. Lu Feng of Peking University. He expressed an almost similar sentiment to yours in light of the Chip ban/tech ban enacted by the Biden administration along with the agreement and coalescing of its minions: The Netherlands, Japan, South Korea.

There is a common saying in Beijing that describes typical human behaviour: you can't suppress your anger when you see a coward [见怂人压不住火]. When you think about it, this saying is actually talking about human nature. The more China backs down, the more frequent and heavier the blows [by the US] will become. Thus, it is time for China to harden its fist and develop the ability to grab hold of the other side by the ‘throat’ [扼住对方的‘咽喉’的功力]. Only then will the other party acknowledge that we both belong to a ‘community with a shared future for mankind’.

If you're interested, you should read his interview I posted at length on the semiconductor thread.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
In all fairness to your points I agree with you emphatically on what your wrote, my question and rebuttal was not meant to attack your ideas but want to flesh out your ideas to see how far and how serious you are with such approach. In any case, your mentality is no different than Mr. Lu Feng of Peking University. He expressed an almost similar sentiment to yours in light of the Chip ban/tech ban enacted by the Biden administration along with the agreement and coalescing of its minions: The Netherlands, Japan, South Korea.

There is a common saying in Beijing that describes typical human behaviour: you can't suppress your anger when you see a coward [见怂人压不住火]. When you think about it, this saying is actually talking about human nature. The more China backs down, the more frequent and heavier the blows [by the US] will become. Thus, it is time for China to harden its fist and develop the ability to grab hold of the other side by the ‘throat’ [扼住对方的‘咽喉’的功力]. Only then will the other party acknowledge that we both belong to a ‘community with a shared future for mankind’.

If you're interested, you should read his interview I posted at length on the semiconductor thread.
thank you for your reply. I do not consider myself a hardliner, in fact, I long for peace in Asia (and global peace for that matter) because a war-torn Asia only serves US interests.
Yes, we would like to have talks and diplomatic solutions to common problems and all that, however, the other partners are not playing ball, and the realities of realpolitik in SCS call for China to show a stronger and more determined hand in the affairs of SCS. Serve your "friends" drinks, but show them your rifles should they act funny.
having said that, the responses from China should still be rational and proportional:
1, China is not going to invade the PH proper because of the perceived threat and unfriendly act. However, those bases in northern Luzon will be legitimate targets once hostilities commence.
2, China should commence the construction of Huangyan Shoal to show determination that China will protect its own core interests. And such construction should be conducted in the open and with a big fanfare for all ASEAN countries to see. China MEANS business and FIGHT it at your own risk is the message to the surrounding countries. Call it coercion, call it a warning, call it a warm reminder, whatever. Just do not think one can ACT to antagonize China's core interests with American "support" which is thin and fickle anyway.
3, By standing up and being counted, surrounding countries realize that China really means business, and hopefully be persuaded not to align totally with American interests at the expense of China.
4, the construction of the Huangyan Shoal, once commenced, would force the PH government to negotiate seriously with China. The pace of construction could then be adjusted to suit China's interests.
have to run off for a meeting, I shall continue to share more thoughts later.
 
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