PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

TK3600

Captain
Registered Member
Lmao. Ryukyuan people are now only 10-15% of the total population of those islands, rest being Japanese Yamato people. Good luck with freeing them from Japanese occupation.
You tell that to Israel. Fact is you can deport Japanese from Tokyo as long as you manage to take it. Another example is Poland. Much of its territory had been German forever. The ongoing de-Russification in Ukraine is happening in territory owned by Russians for hundreds of years!
 
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tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
SAR satellites cannot give video feed. The principle of SAR is repeated radar scattering measurements as the detector moves relative to the target to get a scattering measurement from different angles and reconstruct an image. If the target moves quickly relative to the satellite during a satellite flyby, the SAR image is smeared, you don't get a video. If the target moves slowly relative to the satellite, you get a stationary image. With sufficient satellite density you can get high revisit rates with SAR and have quasi-video of rapid frames, but it is just repeat frames, not true video, and is dependent on high revisit rates.

Optical satellites can produce real time video, but are somewhat weather limited.

It's also hard to keep SAR satellites lofted specifically over the FIC, as SAR satellites must be in LEO to have sufficient signal return strength. Satellites in LEO move very quickly all over the globe, but swath size is also a limitation.
So if it's a matter of density, could they do a starlink style of mass satellite launch to reach the required numbers?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
So if it's a matter of density, could they do a starlink style of mass satellite launch to reach the required numbers?
Starlink is cheap because it is tons of small transceiver satellites. A radar is more than a radio, it also includes time of flight ranging data (which requires high speed high accuracy electronics with accurate clocks), frequency data (to detect Doppler shifts) and transmits a complex waveform rather than a simple FM signal (which requires a sophisticated waveform generator). Most of all, the transmission has to travel through 100's of km, and then the extremely weak signal detected again. In the case of SAR satellites, there might need to be on-board computer processing to store multiple radar returns.

All this complexity adds weight and size. When you launch, you are literally paying the launch costs as if you were burning an equal mass of gold, plus Starlink only lasts 5 years. You can't just throw away a 200 km range radar every 5 years, especially in Starlink numbers. We're talking something like throwing away every single radar in the PLAAF then buying them again every few years. But if you go higher in orbit to lengthen the lifespan, the radar capabilities and costs both increase. Definitely not disposable.

Combined with optical though, and you have persistence + range + high revisit time. Optical is still the workhorse because its easy to interpret, can be put in high orbits like SSO or even GEO, and can find things that you actually can't find with SAR like wakes.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Starlink is cheap because it is tons of small transceiver satellites. A radar is more than a radio, it also includes time of flight ranging data (which requires high speed high accuracy electronics with accurate clocks), frequency data (to detect Doppler shifts) and transmits a complex waveform rather than a simple FM signal (which requires a sophisticated waveform generator). Most of all, the transmission has to travel through 100's of km, and then the extremely weak signal detected again. In the case of SAR satellites, there might need to be on-board computer processing to store multiple radar returns.

All this complexity adds weight and size. When you launch, you are literally paying the launch costs as if you were burning an equal mass of gold, plus Starlink only lasts 5 years. You can't just throw away a 200 km range radar every 5 years, especially in Starlink numbers. We're talking something like throwing away every single radar in the PLAAF then buying them again every few years. But if you go higher in orbit to lengthen the lifespan, the radar capabilities and costs both increase. Definitely not disposable.

Combined with optical though, and you have persistence + range + high revisit time. Optical is still the workhorse because its easy to interpret, can be put in high orbits like SSO or even GEO, and can find things that you actually can't find with SAR like wakes.
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From a article in 2021, It seems like some of this tech is already in play, 96 185kg satellites with a 1m resolution in a constellation. Could it be good enough to sense disruption in the water caused by a carrier sized object?

Sure it will be pricy, but I think it produces a crucial part of all weather capabilities that is not easily disrupted. Especially important is the all weather aspect of the capability, which optical can't really provide.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
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From a article in 2021, It seems like some of this tech is already in play, 96 185kg satellites with a 1m resolution in a constellation. Could it be good enough to sense disruption in the water caused by a carrier sized object?

Sure it will be pricy, but I think it produces a crucial part of all weather capabilities that is not easily disrupted. Especially important is the all weather aspect of the capability, which optical can't really provide.
We'll see. 96x is still not anywhere near Starlink levels but it is decent coverage. The big problem is the 3 year lifetime. If they had a more capable satellite in a higher orbit with wider line of sight, they could keep the birds up until it breaks, which is way more than 3 years.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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From a article in 2021, It seems like some of this tech is already in play, 96 185kg satellites with a 1m resolution in a constellation. Could it be good enough to sense disruption in the water caused by a carrier sized object?

Sure it will be pricy, but I think it produces a crucial part of all weather capabilities that is not easily disrupted. Especially important is the all weather aspect of the capability, which optical can't really provide.
That's Spacety, the company that got sanctioned recently for supposedly helping Wagner, so you know they got some good stuff to attract attention from US.
They produced this image of Melitopol Air Base at the start of the Ukraine war, demonstrating their ability to spot which hanger contain a transport aircraft within. The bright aircraft is parked in the open.
cuKFjDA.jpg
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
That's Spacety, the company that got sanctioned recently for supposedly helping Wagner, so you know they got some good stuff to attract attention from US.
They produced this image at the start of the Ukraine war, demonstrating their ability to spot which hanger contain a transport aircraft within. The bright aircraft is parked in the open.
cuKFjDA.jpg
surprised the hangars are not sheet metal roofed. Well, if they weren't before, they will be soon.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
With more investment in space launching infrastructure, it's conceivable that China could achieve 24/7 SAR satellite coverage across the FIC, could this be coupled with AI sorting through thousands of ships to home in on exact GPS location for all potential targets if war breaks out?

Stationary hardpoints can be confirmed using visual satellites where applicable and mobile targets can be identified using a database of ships.

I'd imagine this style of satellite based guidence with 24/7 , all weather ISR capabilities would make a almost indisruptable kill chain, unless there are some limitations to ISR satellites that I'm not aware of.
I wouldn't be so certain that there would be widespread space-based ISR availability when the war breaks out.
Space is a war domain nowadays
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
I wouldn't be so certain that there would be widespread space-based ISR availability when the war breaks out.
Space is a war domain nowadays
Eh, you play space wars, everyone loses with Kessler syndrome. Plus the cost to send a missile up there is more than offset by the mass launches of cheap satellites we're seeing nowadays. It wouldn't make sense to deplete half your stockpile to only damage the enemy's space based ISR capabilities.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Eh, you play space wars, everyone loses with Kessler syndrome. Plus the cost to send a missile up there is more than offset by the mass launches of cheap satellites we're seeing nowadays. It wouldn't make sense to deplete half your stockpile to only damage the enemy's space based ISR capabilities.
Sure, I dont disagree. I am just making a point so that we don't take it for granted that space-based ISR would be available
 
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