PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ashnole

New Member
Registered Member
China will not occupy the Ryukyu Islands. She will simply restored the Ryukyu Kingdom and free its people from illegal Japanese occupation.
Lmao. Ryukyuan people are now only 10-15% of the total population of those islands, rest being Japanese Yamato people. Good luck with freeing them from Japanese occupation.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Lmao. Ryukyuan people are now only 10-15% of the total population of those islands, rest being Japanese Yamato people. Good luck with freeing them from Japanese occupation.
Ever heard of the term “tongue-in-cheek”?
Ryukyu Kingdom can do whatever it wants except letting foreign forces in.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
I realized no one is talking about torpedo launched from a submarine or warship. There is very little defense against it. Why not use torpedo to sink ships instead of hypersonic missiles in event of Taiwan war?

I think China needs to focus more on underwater warfare.

Patriot missile, SM6 or whatever cannot hit torpedo or go underwater.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
I realized no one is talking about torpedo launched from a submarine or warship. There is very little defense against it. Why not use torpedo to sink ships instead of hypersonic missiles in event of Taiwan war?
Past fic the US and Japan will have a distinct advantage in terms of submarines. Of all aspects of the Chinese navy the submarines are the weakest by far. It's diesel subs are some of the best in the world, but the nuclear ones are low in number and basically one generation behind US/Russian subs, which are crucial to contest anything past fic due to much better speed/endurance compared to diesel.
 

Paradigm

New Member
Registered Member
I realized no one is talking about torpedo launched from a submarine or warship. There is very little defense against it. Why not use torpedo to sink ships instead of hypersonic missiles in event of Taiwan war?

I think China needs to focus more on underwater warfare.

Patriot missile, SM6 or whatever cannot hit torpedo or go underwater.
IMO, PLAN and PLAAF aren't weak in anti-submarine warfare. Well prepared but not battle proven. The SCS is China's nuclear bastion and it's A2/AD including "underwater great wall". Tools used for example are underwater drones, SSKs, 054s, 052s and O55s all listening for subs.

Keep in mind there were reports the USS Kitty Hawk and Ronald Reagan had a Song class pop up ahead of them. Not a single AB or Tico (or that US sub below) detected them. Are these two stories a myth? I'm waiting for someone to debunk them.

And, the Chinese weapon of choice should they detect a hostile sub? The Yu-8 wake homing ASROC torpedo.
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
You do realise China has long range missiles as well don’t you?

This would just be a really shit attempt to copy China’s SCS island fortress strategy without understanding, never mind having, any of the core pre-requisites that makes that strategy possible.

Island forward bases are only viable if:
A) the islands have sufficient scale to allow you to deploy a comprehensive, multi-lay, all spectrum defensive force plus support infrastructure and personnel and still have sufficient room for all your forces to move and disperse so they don’t become fish in a barrel to incoming enemy fire.
B) you will ideally want multiple such islands close enough to each other to offer mutual support.
C) have massive, distributed and redundant sensor networks covering the entire region for early warning, long range detection and targeting
D) have a massive, persistent and survivable naval surface fleet presence for support and logistics
E) have close land based aviation support able to surge assets to help defensive and offensive operations
F) have hypersonic long range missile support that can be called in to strike at enemy fleets with short kill chains

The US has few island in the first island chain that even has room for anything more than a few small batteries in fixed locations.

Its surface fleet would be unsurvivable that first island chain distances from the mainland, meaning those islands will be unsupported and will have massive logistical challenges once the shooting starts.

At best, it can forward deploy offensive missile batteries with no or skeleton crews as a first strike option, which given how the US military and western MSM have been projecting about a supposed Chinese Pearl Harbour attack, sounds like precisely what they plan with this. Anything more would be a waste as anything forward deployed on those islands will be obliterated in the opening minutes of any conflict with no realistic prospects of wartime redeployment.

China can counter by permanently forward deploying drones and coast guard cutters to keep those islands under constant watch, with its own defensive and offensive missiles locked in ready to go as soon as the word is given.
Really though. Two-thirds of those islands look like these or worse:

Not exactly locations with high strategic depth. I would take an artificial island, really. At least you don't have to deal with the barren landscape. You could load them with SAMs and ASCMs and that would be a problem. But not a game changer. This is something China has been preparing for proactively. They also do nothing to protect Japan itself from PLARF and PLAAF who will cause minor problems to Japan if they actually commit to the madness of fighting China.

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If you manage your SEAD well, you could ruin any missile battery using things like these:

tl-30.jpg
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
With more investment in space launching infrastructure, it's conceivable that China could achieve 24/7 SAR satellite coverage across the FIC, could this be coupled with AI sorting through thousands of ships to home in on exact GPS location for all potential targets if war breaks out?

Stationary hardpoints can be confirmed using visual satellites where applicable and mobile targets can be identified using a database of ships.

I'd imagine this style of satellite based guidence with 24/7 , all weather ISR capabilities would make a almost indisruptable kill chain, unless there are some limitations to ISR satellites that I'm not aware of.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
With more investment in space launching infrastructure, it's conceivable that China could achieve 24/7 SAR satellite coverage across the FIC, could this be coupled with AI sorting through thousands of ships to home in on exact GPS location for all potential targets if war breaks out?

Stationary hardpoints can be confirmed using visual satellites where applicable and mobile targets can be identified using a database of ships.

I'd imagine this style of satellite based guidence with 24/7 , all weather ISR capabilities would make a almost indisruptable kill chain, unless there are some limitations to ISR satellites that I'm not aware of.
SAR satellites cannot give video feed. The principle of SAR is repeated radar scattering measurements as the detector moves relative to the target to get a scattering measurement from different angles and reconstruct an image. If the target moves quickly relative to the satellite during a satellite flyby, the SAR image is smeared, you don't get a video. If the target moves slowly relative to the satellite, you get a stationary image. With sufficient satellite density you can get high revisit rates with SAR and have quasi-video of rapid frames, but it is just repeat frames, not true video, and is dependent on high revisit rates.

Optical satellites can produce real time video, but are somewhat weather limited.

It's also hard to keep SAR satellites lofted specifically over the FIC, as SAR satellites must be in LEO to have sufficient signal return strength. Satellites in LEO move very quickly all over the globe, but swath size is also a limitation.
 
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