PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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As previously mentioned, if those launchers are designated to be disposable only after one or few launches, then there is little to no need to resupply them.
Besides, even if there is no military presence on those islands to resupply, there are still civilian populations on those islands that do. China isn't going to sink Japanese civilian boats and ships indiscriminately for that matter, which means they could secretly smuggle military equipment onto those ships as well.
So unless China can:
1. Declare and maintain an exclusion zone spanning the entire Ryukyu Island Chain;
2. Maintain strict and comprehensive 24/7 ISR over the entire island chain and the surrounding waters (which is going to be difficult because Chinese warships and warplanes are much needed elsewhere);
3. Take over the role of resupplying the civilian population on those islands;
4. Stop and check every single civilian boats and ships that are heading to those islands that isn't coming from China, if such permission/allowance is given by Beijing; and
5. Without getting shot at by the Japanese and American forces -
There is bound to be holes and gaps where Japanese and American military aircrafts, boats and ships can slip through and attempt resupply and transport of military troops and aircraft around the island chain.
Sure, setting up 24/7 ISR overwatch across the entire island chain sounds good, but the effectiveness would still be limited if the Americans and Japanese are the ones pulling the first trigger against China, i.e. China did not intend for Japan to be involved, and hence, did not destroy those missile launchers in a first strike.
Of course, by now most of us has well understood the willingness of Tokyo and DC to militarily intervene in the AR of Taiwan by China. But if there is even a tint of chance to keep Japan out of the AR, then I believe Beijing should take it.
We aren't talking about the societal factors here. We are discussing about the technical side of things.
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No matter how much the Japanese or American leadership tries to project confidence, the rational ones among them will admit privately that if there is a major war in the Pacific, it's possible for China to win. That's why they are focused on deterrence, because if they had to fight, they know they might lose.
If Japan uses those islands to attack China, they must realise that if they lose, they're not going to keep the islands. An amphibious invasion of Okinawa or Taiwan or the main islands of Japan might be very difficult, but taking some of the smaller Ryukyu islands would be easy if China wins the air and naval battle.
If Japan and America really believe that they can intervene to promote Taiwan independence without risking anything except their own soldiers' lives, China should make it clear to them that if they launch an unprovoked war of aggression against China, they'd be risking possession of Okinawa and Hawaii and at a minimum some smaller Ryukyu islands and Guam and Saipan.
Absolutely. The American policy community understands the logic of deterrence. This may not be the language China wishes to speak in, but you have to talk to an enemy in such a way that he understands you. Deterrence means that conventional airstrikes on California must be possible if you want to avoid the US striking Chinese coastal provinces. Capturing Guam must be possible if you want to stop the US navy from taking over the islands in the south China sea. Americans must know that if they attack, not only might their sons come home in body bags but their own cities will be subjected to strategic bombing.
Yes, I agree. The best scenario for China would be the successful deterrence of the US and her "allies" (i.e. NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia) from militarily intervene in the AR of Taiwan.
Japan having certain level of deterrence caability is fine (it's a country, after all). However, the deterrence must be put in the right place, i.e. defending their home territory, and not being put to interfere in China's internal affairs.
In the backdrop of the worsening tensions between China and the US-led QUAD+AUKUS, I believe it is imperative for the PLA CMC to be prepared for such avenues.
Plus, my focus is on the technical side of things, but your addendum is much appreciated.
I'm saying that right now, in peacetime, is the time for China Coast Guard planes, drones and ships to be doing aggressive ISR of those islands in every legal way and pinpointing which are the ones most likely to harbor military forces and getting 3D maps, in conjunction with satellites, of every one of them. I'm talking flying drones and sailing ships at the edge of their territorial waters, getting confirmation (without permission, via satellite/drone/ship) of all docking ships (there aren't that many, they're usually resupplied on a schedule) to ensure that RORO vessels capable of handling missiles are not docking, and mapping exactly down to the meter where missiles could be launched from and could not be launched from to shrink their possible maneuver space.
And that's about all you can do defensively in peacetime. The rest is up to the offensive forces in wartime.
While I agree with your overall sentiment, I disagree China would be taking anything beyond Diaoyudao and Taiwan. It's not China's style to be an occupier/new imperialist.
If US and Japan are comprehensively beaten, the worse China can do are referendums in Hawaii, Guam, Okinawa through an administrative body. It's up to the people on those islands.
China will not be getting any reparations from the US. That's a given. The Japanese on the other hand will face Chinese justice.
China will not occupy the Ryukyu Islands. She will simply restored the Ryukyu Kingdom and free its people from illegal Japanese occupation.
Problem with that approach is that it would pretty much spook all of SEA and the western media will have a field day. China does not need more enemies at this stage, covertly using passive signal gathering, satellite imagery and using local Chinese businesses as a Intel source would be much more palatable than running ships and drones right up to the border.
Well, ASEAN countries should get their house in order to prevent China sniffing around.
Did you really, seriously, just say that China will capture Hawaii (or is capable of doing so)? Do you even have an idea of the number of fleet-on-fleet naval battles and logistics it will take for such an operation? Are you aware of the distance between Chinese coastline and Hawaii?