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That has been the emerging shape of things, yes. The news that 166 Zhuhai is going in for overhaul bolsters that narrative significantly, because the overhaul itself requires time and money and would not be worth doing if the ship was going to retire only a couple of years later. With Zhuhai going into overhaul now, we should expect the ship to serve until at least 2023 and possibly 2025. From there we can work back to establish likely out-of-service dates for the remaining units of the class, and combine with known production schedule to arrive at estimates for fleet composition and numbers.

It's just one piece of information, but it narrows the possibility space considerably, largely by eliminating the more conservative scenarios that envision rapid retirement of the remaining Ludas.

Lethe said:

That has been the emerging shape of things, yes. The news that 166 Zhuhai is going in for overhaul bolsters that narrative significantly, because the overhaul itself requires time and money and would not be worth doing if the ship was going to retire only a couple of years later. With Zhuhai going into overhaul now, we should expect the ship to serve until at least 2023 and possibly 2025. From there we can work back to establish likely out-of-service dates for the remaining units of the class, and combine with known production schedule to arrive at estimates for fleet composition and numbers.

It's just one piece of information, but it narrows the possibility space considerably, largely by eliminating the more conservative scenarios that envision rapid retirement of the remaining Ludas.

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I have felt for a while now that we may be underestimating the scope of China's naval ambitions...

latenlazy said:

I have felt for a while now that we may be underestimating the scope of China's naval ambitions...

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I think it's fair to say that the process has been one of continual upwards revision as China meets or exceeds projections. At this point it is plausible that China will have 40 destroyers by 2025, which is not a number that would've been considered credible even only a few years ago. Nonetheless I do prefer relatively conservative projections, if only because in China's case even the most conservative projections contain enough dynamism to be interesting.

Lethe said:

I think it's fair to say that the process has been one of continual upwards revision as China meets or exceeds projections. At this point it is plausible that China will have 40 destroyers by 2025, which is not a number that would've been considered credible even only a few years ago. Nonetheless I do prefer relatively conservative projections, if only because in China's case even the most conservative projections contain enough dynamism to be interesting.

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Considering how by 2020 a conservative estimate of the Chinese Navy's destroyer number would've been 30 destroyers over the last year or so, the prospect of 40 in service in total by 40 should be pretty reasonable tbh.

Conservative being:
13 052Ds by 2020 (i.e.: all the one's launched/fitting out/sea trials/in commission at present, all of which are reasonably expected to be commissioned by 2020)
6 052Cs
4 Sovs
2 052Bs
2 051Cs
1 051B
2 052s
Adding up to 30

And not including any 055s (tbh it's possible up to 2 would be in service by 2020) and not including any 051s (assuming they were all retired by then).

For 2025, if we assume that a handful of 051s (let's say 4) are retained in service up to then (for the purposes of discussion), and assuming conservatively that no more 055s apart from the first 4 units are ready for service by 2025, and assuming no more 052Ds are built... then you reach 38 "destroyers" quite easily.
From there, one just needs to consider what the actual number of additional 052Ds and 055s built and then commissioned by 2025 versus what the above conservatively predicts, to consider what the orbat of destroyers by 2025 may actually look like.



that said, I feel like keeping 051s by 2025 would be a bit much.

Bltizo said:

Considering how by 2020 a conservative estimate of the Chinese Navy's destroyer number would've been 30 destroyers over the last year or so, the prospect of 40 in service in total by 40 should be pretty reasonable tbh.

Conservative being:
13 052Ds by 2020 (i.e.: all the one's launched/fitting out/sea trials/in commission at present, all of which are reasonably expected to be commissioned by 2020)
6 052Cs
4 Sovs
2 052Bs
2 051Cs
1 051B
2 052s
Adding up to 30

And not including any 055s (tbh it's possible up to 2 would be in service by 2020) and not including any 051s (assuming they were all retired by then).

For 2025, if we assume that a handful of 051s (let's say 4) are retained in service up to then (for the purposes of discussion), and assuming conservatively that no more 055s apart from the first 4 units are ready for service by 2025, and assuming no more 052Ds are built... then you reach 38 "destroyers" quite easily.
From there, one just needs to consider what the actual number of additional 052Ds and 055s built and then commissioned by 2025 versus what the above conservatively predicts, to consider what the orbat of destroyers by 2025 may actually look like.



that said, I feel like keeping 051s by 2025 would be a bit much.

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It makes sense to keep old hulls as a way to train and maintain the larger body of personnel needed to run a growing fleet. One reason why maybe we shouldn't expect the PLAN to rush the retirement of the 051s.

delft said:

From Marine Forum Daily News:

I expect the ship will be transferred to the Coast Guard.

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FORBIN said:

I don't think she have 26 years one of the four 051G1/2/DT modernized for others two 051D yes surely retired soon, yet Nanchang retired 09/2016.

View attachment 42892

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But a surprise is always possible hehe the last Jiangwei I 053H2G Tongling - 542 transfered to Coast Guard

FORBIN said:

But a surprise is always possible hehe the last Jiangwei I 053H2G Tongling - 542 transfered to Coast Guard

View attachment 42902

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I think the 053s have better speed and endurance over the 051s which make them better qualified for the CG.

The modified 053s vs the 051s that is, not the 051B or 051C.

Bltizo said:

For 2025, if we assume that a handful of 051s (let's say 4) are retained in service up to then (for the purposes of discussion), and assuming conservatively that no more 055s apart from the first 4 units are ready for service by 2025, and assuming no more 052Ds are built... then you reach 38 "destroyers" quite easily.
From there, one just needs to consider what the actual number of additional 052Ds and 055s built and then commissioned by 2025 versus what the above conservatively predicts, to consider what the orbat of destroyers by 2025 may actually look like.

that said, I feel like keeping 051s by 2025 would be a bit much.

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I think 166 Zhuhai (c. 1991) and 165 Zhanjiang (c. 1989) are the only 051s that could potentially still be in service in 2025. Relatedly, it will be interesting to see if 165 joins 166 in refit.

One possible retirement schedule:

109 Kaifeng c. 1982 d. 2018
134 Zunyi c. 1984 d. 2019
110 Dalian c. 1984 d. 2020
164 Guilin c. 1987 d. 2022
165 Zhanjiang c. 1989 d. 2024
166 Zhuhai c. 1991 d. 2026

Lethe said:

I think 166 Zhuhai (c. 1991) and 165 Zhanjiang (c. 1989) are the only 051s that could potentially still be in service in 2025. Relatedly, it will be interesting to see if 165 joins 166 in refit.

One possible retirement schedule:

109 Kaifeng c. 1982 d. 2018
134 Zunyi c. 1984 d. 2019
110 Dalian c. 1984 d. 2020
164 Guilin c. 1987 d. 2022
165 Zhanjiang c. 1989 d. 2024
166 Zhuhai c. 1991 d. 2026

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DDG 134 might get preferential treatment since it's a command vessel, retrofitted in 2004 with dedicated C&C facilities.

jobjed said:

DDG 134 might get preferential treatment since it's a command vessel, retrofitted in 2004 with dedicated C&C facilities.

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That is certainly relevant information, thanks. For that reason, it might be replaced in the orbat by an 055 unit, assuming those have similar (or hopefully superior) facilities?