I would say JF17 is more of a product of desperation that PAF was in during 90s. If PAF could revisit and planned in later decades it would have rather hooked with J10 program. JF17 is more or less a dead end product, Block III will probably the last iteration. There is not much room left to improve due to size and technology wise unless they want to recreate the whole program. Only think which was holding J10 was the engine as PAF was not ready to commit another engine dependency with Russia. Also in the early days there was uncertainty whether Russia would allow Al31 even for use by PLA, export of it was even greater uncertainty. Now as finally J10 engine issue is resolved, PAF will most probably revisit their plan for J10 near future.
That’s applying hindsight and imposing future knowledge on past decisions.
At the time when the JF17 project was first started in earnest (after moving past the initial Super7 phase), even the PLAAF wasn’t sure how well the J10 would turn out, hence their original commitment to purchase 250 for PLAAF’s own use.
It is also unfair to say that the JF17 is a ‘dead end’ project because it has reached the natural end of its developmental path. Every plane is a ‘dead end’ by that definition.
The JF17 is a better fit for Pakistan than the J10. The Chinese would not have offered the same degree of ToT on the J10, nor would Pakistan had any design input on the J10A or subsequent versions. The best they can do is offer their own suggestions, but it would be entirely down to the PLAAF’s discretion on whether to take that onboard.
Beyond the technical aspects, there is also the price tag. The PAF would not be able to afford as many J10s as it could JF17s. Hourly operational costs would also be significantly higher.
On top of that, the J10 is a very different design and requires a very different technique and strategy to use in air combat. The JF17 was designed to perform as closely to the F16 as possible aerodynamically speaking. That massively helps in terms of pilot training and cross platform certification for the PAF.
Simply put, a F16 pilot can use a JF17 to full effect with minimal familiarisation training, since the JF17 flies so similar the the F16 he would already be intimately familiarity with. Whereas he would almost have to start from scratch to use the J10 to its full potential.
That wasn't an option. The J-10 wasn't offered to Pakistan until the early 00's, well after Pakistan had already gone all-in on the Thunder. Let's keep in mind, the JF-17s history is very complicated, as it encompasses 3 separate projects, by 4 different countries, and one of those countries sanctioned the other two, mid development! lolz... The technical term for such a project is a "clusterf**ck". The fact that we're even discussing an AESA gen 4+ version of the JF-17 today is crazy. So I'm just happy it even exists, despite all the odds.
As for the J-10, obviously it's better than the Thunder (that's always been true, objectively) and I would love it if the PAF gets a couple of squadrons of this bird. But the problem is the same as it was 20 years ago: $$$$. And it's not just the expense of logistics, but all the man hours in standing up a new platform and mastering it, from the pilots to the engineering staff.
But still, I'd love to get a couple of squadrons of the J-10C, because the net effect will be priceless... India pays a quarter of a billion dollars per Rafale, and Pakistan turns around and buys J-10Cs, completely nullifying the IAF's purchase.... It may be worth it just for the sake of comedy.
Well, I think there is a chance that Beijing has decided a couple billion dollars is a price worth paying to piss on India’s Rafale party after all their anti-China BS and decided to just gift Pakistan a few squadrons of J10B/Cs.
Beyond the troll factor, this would be a very unsubtle reminder to Modi that China could force India to spend itself into oblivion if it so wished. India did an almighty flex to get those Rafales, which China could effectively nullify without any effort at all.
Geography does not favour China in terms of deep and board offensive options against India. But even so it ties down the bulk of India’s best forces with its mere existence.
If China were to start massively subsidising Pakistani defence spending with generous loans or even direct military aid, as well as move substantial PLA frontline combat forces into Pakistan ostensively to safeguard its belt and road investments, one can easily imagine the level of hysterics that would cause in India, and the damage that would do to Indian finances as it scrambles to buy every weapon under the sun to try to ‘counter’ these developments.
Beyond some token speeches, none of the other major powers would even object, as they would be too busy licking their lips at the prospect of grabbing a piece of the massive Indian foreign weapons procurement pie.
