News on China's scientific and technological development.

tphuang · Friday at 9:57 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1928449746709979395

It's actually amazing to me how quickly China's Rare Earth restrictions are already disrupting Western companies in the advanced manufacturing sector.

People don't really appreciate just how hard it is to make cutting edge rare earth magnets

Reminder that China already mastered the tech behind making magnets that EV motors that can operate at 200 deg C.

RareEarthMagnet_JLMag+ProductLineup-2023.png

escobar · Friday at 4:07 PM

U.S.-China Trade Truce Risks Falling Apart Over Rare-Earth Exports

Since Geneva, however, Beijing has continued to slow-walk approvals for export licenses for rare earths and other elements needed to make cars, chips and other products.

For He, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s economic gatekeeper, the willingness to comply with China’s rare-earth pledges faltered after the U.S. Commerce Department on May 12 issued a warning against the use of Huawei Technologies’s Ascend artificial-intelligence chips “anywhere in the world,”

U.S. companies, in particular automakers, have complained to the administration that Beijing has been slow to approve export licenses for rare-earth minerals, which are crucial in multiple components of modern cars. If China doesn’t speed up those approvals, companies have warned the White House, auto plants may have to idle in pandemic-style stoppages

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iewgnem · Friday at 4:41 PM

escobar said:
U.S.-China Trade Truce Risks Falling Apart Over Rare-Earth Exports

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I like how they tried to save face by saying China only did it after their attack on Huawei, I'm pretty sure China started crackdown on smuggling first and Huawei attack was response.

Also this might be America's literacy and IQ crisis comes in, China only said they will roll back restrictions placed after April 2, the magnet ban happened before April 2, lol

I knew the magnet ban was bad but I didn't know it was this bad. At end of the day, the only deal was America gets to live by surrendering and China accepts their surrender instead of going for the kill.

tphuang · Saturday at 9:21 PM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1928973511520890982

I wrote up a longer post on the importance of carbon fiber in China's current product development and technology and manufacturing supply chain.

MortyandRick · Saturday at 11:57 PM

tphuang said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1928973511520890982

I wrote up a longer post on the importance of carbon fiber in China's current product development and technology and manufacturing supply chain.

So then one has to ask, how big of a risk is it if Toray is forced to halt supplies to china?

GulfLander · Sunday at 12:41 AM

MortyandRick said:
So then one has to ask, how big of a risk is it if Toray is forced to halt supplies to china?

Is there a local counterpart producer of substitute of Toray's most advanced product?

nativechicken · Sunday at 1:28 AM

GulfLander said:
Is there a local counterpart producer of substitute of Toray's most advanced product?

China has enterprises capable of replacing Toray carbon fiber. Toray does not dominate all segments of the carbon fiber market anyway. For carbon fiber grades above T700, China has long faced significant challenges in procuring them internationally.

China has largely achieved pilot-scale production for T1000-grade carbon fiber and is now actively developing T1100 and higher-grade variants.

Update:
China has successfully developed T1100-grade carbon fiber. Domestically manufactured carbon fibers at M55J, M65J, and M40X grades are also now available.

Toray’s strongest products remain T1200 and M70J. Globally, aerospace applications primarily still rely on materials like T800H, M40J, and M55J.

China’s T1000, M55J, and M65J grades are currently undergoing application/verification phases. For specifications beyond T1000/M65J, the excessive cost of advanced carbon fibers renders practical applications minimal.

tphuang · Sunday at 6:16 AM

nativechicken said:
China has enterprises capable of replacing Toray carbon fiber. Toray does not dominate all segments of the carbon fiber market anyway. For carbon fiber grades above T700, China has long faced significant challenges in procuring them internationally.

China has largely achieved pilot-scale production for T1000-grade carbon fiber and is now actively developing T1100 and higher-grade variants.

Update:
China has successfully developed T1100-grade carbon fiber. Domestically manufactured carbon fibers at M55J, M65J, and M40X grades are also now available.

Toray’s strongest products remain T1200 and M70J. Globally, aerospace applications primarily still rely on materials like T800H, M40J, and M55J.

China’s T1000, M55J, and M65J grades are currently undergoing application/verification phases. For specifications beyond T1000/M65J, the excessive cost of advanced carbon fibers renders practical applications minimal.

it's irrelevant what pilot scale production is. What matter is what the downstream product uses.
At this point, T800G (IIRC, that's what Guangwei & others call their improved T800 product) is basically the top end CF produced by Chinese companies that's been incorporated into local product.
And that is sufficient.

Toray is basically at T1000 in terms of the best it supplies. It's unclear to me what product actually needs T1000/1100.

MortyandRick said:
So then one has to ask, how big of a risk is it if Toray is forced to halt supplies to china?

it's not a big risk. I mean all the major aerospace customers are already using domestic supply chain. T800G is more than sufficient for C919 and J36. In some cases, I suppose some downstream CF composite makers need to swap out imported with domestic supplies.

sunnymaxi · Sunday at 6:32 AM

tphuang said:
it's irrelevant what pilot scale production is. What matter is what the downstream product uses.
At this point, T800G (IIRC, that's what Guangwei & others call their improved T800 product) is basically the top end CF produced by Chinese companies that's been incorporated into local product.
And that is sufficient.

Toray is basically at T1000 in terms of the best it supplies. It's unclear to me what product actually needs T1000/1100.

yes. T800 is sufficient enough to support any high tech product include civil aviation due to its performance and cost.

Boeing's top end airliner 777X too heavily used T800 CF in its airframe and especially wings.

A350-1000 uses both T800 and T1000 but T800 is more widely used in main supporting structure.

tphuang · Sunday at 8:17 AM

Actually, I took another look at Guangwei's development process. It is called T800H, not T800G

here is a comparison of Chinese products to Toray. They all have T1000/1100 type of material undergoing testing, but the need for it is not huge, so production increase and certification are all around T700S & T800H. That's where the demand is at the moment.

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