New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

This CATL deal is huge

Once built, it is set to be Europe's largest battery cell plant and CATL's second in the region, making battery cells and modules for carmakers including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Stellantis and Volkswagen.

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So CATL is now supplying batteries to all the major German automakers and Tesla Berlin. BYD is supplying batteries to Tesla Berlin. Gotten is supply batteries to VW. Chinese battery suppliers have all of Europe covered now.

Mercedes-Benz said in a separate statement it would be the first partner to receive battery cells from CATL's Hungarian plant, and that its order marked the highest initial order volume for the site.

"This new state-of-the art European CATL plant in Hungary is another milestone for the scale-up of our EV production together with our key partners," Mercedes-Benz management board member Markus Schaefer said.

CATL previously said it would start supplying cylindrical cells to BMW from 2025 for its new series of electric vehicles.

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Didn't the German minister say they need to diversify away from China? I guess the reality is harder than these politicians realize.

PopularScience said:

Geely and Changan are partner with Huawei. These are not small potatoes.

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They are definitely small potatoes compared to byd. Byd is several times larger than these two automakers combined in the nev space.

Keep in mind when we talk about auto OS, it's not just the software. We are talking about the need to have the micro controllers, database, Wideband communication and central processor unit. All of that is the underlying components which will support the software/apps you build on top like autonomous driving, accessing internet from your car, playing video games in the back row, things like that. There are a lot of components in there and places to make money. If automakers give that up, they are losing a lot of revenue opportunities.

Changan Avita.

tphuang said:

Fundamentally, there are a couple of challenges here for Huawei:
1) lower end cars like Wuling mini or even BYD Dolphin simply don't need and can't afford autonomous feature. Those are the type of cars you'd most likely export to ASEAN countries
2) High end cars need an auto OS, but only China and Western markets can support high end cars. And Huawei can be banned any moment from the latter
3) In domestic market, none of the Western brands with use Huawei technology. NIO/Xpeng/BYD aren't going to use Huawei OS. If BYD ramps up to over 40% of the domestic EV market, the available market to Huawei would be just 25% of the domestic market.

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1. I would suggest that in the not so distant future, all cars (maybe except those extremely basic ones like the MiniEV) will need an auto OS. That's like anything Corolla and above. This will not be limited to high end cars.

2. Talking about being banned, if BYD repeats its domestic success in western markets, it may soon get its own "Huawei treatment" regardless of how little Huawei stuff it uses. The US doesn't hate Huawei per se, it hates influential Chinese companies that threatens its tech dominance.

Yes BYD tries hard to vertically integrate and they do work on semiconductors, but they don't have any line planned for advanced logic processor nodes, or experience designing logic chips at that scale. When you compare R&D expenditure of Huawei and BYD, there remained a very deep gap. The two companies may still complementary each other in many areas (not limited to OS).

tphuang said:

Let me state this again. BYD will not be using Harmony OS on any of their cars in medium to long term. BYD is a very aggressive company. It seeks to be the Apple and Toyota. it will no let any core system be supplied by another company. It could work with Momenta, Baidu or Xiaomi on the software layer, but everything has to be using the API provided by BYD. I wouldn't consider Geely a first tier brand right now. BYD is first tier. Everyone else is a separate tier.

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Actually BYD is starting to use Huawei motors on their Song Plus EV, I'm not sure why, but that's been confirmed by official declaration documents. It is also likely their new flagship brand will be using Huawei computational hardware though this is not officially confirmed. With that said, I agree that at this stage BYD would not yield their majority models to a Huawei provided OS.

BlackWindMnt said:

Are they using harmony OS as in the Huawei flavor or are they talking about open harmony the flavorless version, the one where every car or mobile brand can customize to create their own flavor.

Open harmony should mean enough distinction between car OS but the car APP ecosystem can be shared.

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Not sure, need to wait for actual products. I expect them to at least use their own UI design (though I wish they would just copy original Huawei/AITO ones).

tphuang said:

This CATL deal is huge

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So CATL is now supplying batteries to all the major German automakers and Tesla Berlin. BYD is supplying batteries to Tesla Berlin. Gotten is supply batteries to VW. Chinese battery suppliers have all of Europe covered now.


Didn't the German minister say they need to diversify away from China? I guess the reality is harder than these politicians realize.


They are definitely small potatoes compared to byd. Byd is several times larger than these two automakers combined in the nev space.

Keep in mind when we talk about auto OS, it's not just the software. We are talking about the need to have the micro controllers, database, Wideband communication and central processor unit. All of that is the underlying components which will support the software/apps you build on top like autonomous driving, accessing internet from your car, playing video games in the back row, things like that. There are a lot of components in there and places to make money. If automakers give that up, they are losing a lot of revenue opportunities.

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I agree BYD is exceptional, but other manufacturers can source this components from Huawei, from OS, sensors down to electric motor and still making money.

tphuang said:

Huawei is basically offering:
auto OS, smart driving and electric motor to any Chinese automaker incapable of developing their own.

BYD is basically offering:
auto OS, electric motor and batteries to other automakers + compatibility with auto driving developers like Baidu, Xiaomi, Didi, Nuro and possibly themselves.

So the two are going to be huge competitors in battling out the auto OS and electric motor and plugging in auto driving companies.

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One thing we can be sure is that both will survive the super-competitive NEV market in China in the end.

Jiang ZeminFanboy said:

CATL 7.34b euro battery plant will be built in Hungary.

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Mercedes alone will need 200 GWh of EV batteries by the end of the decade.

CATL lands Mercedes as first customer for Hungary battery plant​

Construction of the plant will start this year in Debrecen, close to auto plants for customers that include Mercedes, BMW, Stellantis and VW.​

...
In a separate statement,

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said CATL's new plant marked the next milestone toward the automaker's goal of reaching battery production capacity of more than 200 gigawatt hours at eight global production sites by the end of the decade.

The plant will supply battery cells for production sites in Germany and Hungary, Mercedes said.

"With CATL we have a technology-leader as our partner to provide us – as the first and biggest customer of the new plant's initial capacity – with top-notch CO2 neutral battery cells for our next generation EVs in Europe," Mercedes management board member Markus Schaefer said.

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Tesla and BYD moved fast. Notice that unlike Tesla's 4680, BYD's blade batteries can be upgraded relatively easily.

Tesla Model Y with BYD batteries has received EU approval, report says​

The Model Y is powered by BYD batteries with a capacity of 55-kilowatt hours and a range of 440 kilometers, according to a German media report.

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PopularScience said:

Changan Avita.

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Avatr 11 is an important project, jointly developed by Changan (auto maker), Huawei, and CATL.

tphuang said:

@ansy1968 look, China is exporting so many NEVs to Philippines in June!

seriously, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malaysia will all increase rapidly in the next few years. The Chinese gov't can help these countries buy Chinese EVs by helping them build local EV charging network and setting up even more plants.

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I wouldn’t be that optimistic about ASEAN market , maybe I’m wrong, Japanese manufacturers see massive potential growth there, and I think they are right this time.
This is what I think will happen, in short time(a year maybe a few months) , there would be big increase (NEV) there, but since their limited electricity infrastructure, the shortcomings would soon not be negligible and the need would be dropping sharply to normal( I mean low)
The time is yet to come, NEVs right now isn’t a everyone’s game. What you described will come eventually, I would wait another decade for that to happen.

tphuang said:

I wouldn't take that Bloomberg article too seriously. I guess the author can't deal with the fact that China doesn't want Jeep/Stellantis cars. There will be more casualties like this in the future. Toyota, Honda and Nissan, I'm look at you. Same with Hyundai. BYD is coming after your factories for really cheap.

Lol, Electric Viking has caught onto what Chinese social media have been saying for a while. The Sea Lion is coming after Model Y. Model 3 market in China is too crowded. Model Y market needs more competition. Sea Lion will do great. It baffles me why every new Chinese automaker thinks they need to compete in the most competitive market.

But as I said before, this is only part of the picture, BYD is going after everyone, not just Tesla. Most of their victims will be legacy auto. BYD has a great strategy.

I do want to see how many overseas factories they build. With this move to get into their own shipping fleet, this will give them new power in moving cars, kits, batteries, parts and importing raw materials. Maybe they will buy some second hand ships too.

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I’m almost offended by their exterior design, they act like it would kill the company if they hire a real design team.
I’m considering AITO M7 right now

superdog said:

1. I would suggest that in the not so distant future, all cars (maybe except those extremely basic ones like the MiniEV) will need an auto OS. That's like anything Corolla and above. This will not be limited to high end cars.

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There is a difference between having an auto OS and having one capable of L3/L4 autonomous driving. For something L2 or lower, the requirement is low enough that most automakers can probably develop their own system.

superdog said:

2. Talking about being banned, if BYD repeats its domestic success in western markets, it may soon get its own "Huawei treatment" regardless of how little Huawei stuff it uses. The US doesn't hate Huawei per se, it hates influential Chinese companies that threatens its tech dominance.

Yes BYD tries hard to vertically integrate and they do work on semiconductors, but they don't have any line planned for advanced logic processor nodes, or experience designing logic chips at that scale. When you compare R&D expenditure of Huawei and BYD, there remained a very deep gap. The two companies may still complementary each other in many areas (not limited to OS).

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If BYD gets banned, CATL and gotten and others will get banned too. Western automakers will get banned from China. With Huawei, Western government can use the national security argument. The most they can say about BYD is economic security. Aside from America, that line is not going to work anywhere else. BYD is already shipping over 1000 cars to Australia and NZ. It will probably build plants in Europe (Hungary or Poland) and have no issues in EU market. Frankly, countries like Hungary and Poland would rather build foreign cars in their country than just accepting them from Germany.

Remember, people (at least the liberals) like BYD for it being a major player in the fight against climate change. Huawei has basically no admirers anywhere in the West.

superdog said:

Actually BYD is starting to use Huawei motors on their Song Plus EV, I'm not sure why, but that's been confirmed by official declaration documents. It is also likely their new flagship brand will be using Huawei computational hardware though this is not officially confirmed. With that said, I agree that at this stage BYD would not yield their majority models to a Huawei provided OS.

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There were rumors a year ago that Song+ EV will use Huawei motor, but there has not been any evidence of that in action. In fact, Song+ platform is pretty much only selling DM-i models at the moment.

PopularScience said:

I agree BYD is exceptional, but other manufacturers can source this components from Huawei, from OS, sensors down to electric motor and still making money.

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Huawei does not produce Lidar, ultrasonic radar or the megapixel camera. It also currently does not produce the SOC that are used to power autonomous driving to the best of my knowledge. Pretty much all of the Chinese automakers are invested in Horizon Robotics.

Huawei will probably work something out with all the legacy Chinese automakers to supply them this solution. That's why BYD would regard Huawei as a major competitor. If you are BYD, you do not want to have inferior product to Huawei, since that means your own cars might be worse than Geely or ChangAn produced ones.

supercat said:

One thing we can be sure is that both will survive the super-competitive NEV market in China in the end.

Mercedes alone will need 200 GWh of EV batteries by the end of the decade.

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As I said above, this CATL/Mercedes news is huge. a 100 GWh plant for Mercedes and probably BMW would cover a good chunk of EV production from those 2 automakers. I'm sure they will eventually add even more plants by 2030 (assuming geopolitics don't change). Chinese battery makers have the entire European automaker market locked down. LG Chem and Panasonic are basically only able to get deals in America.

superdog said:

1. I would suggest that in the not so distant future, all cars (maybe except those extremely basic ones like the MiniEV) will need an auto OS. That's like anything Corolla and above. This will not be limited to high end cars.

2. Talking about being banned, if BYD repeats its domestic success in western markets, it may soon get its own "Huawei treatment" regardless of how little Huawei stuff it uses. The US doesn't hate Huawei per se, it hates influential Chinese companies that threatens its tech dominance.

Yes BYD tries hard to vertically integrate and they do work on semiconductors, but they don't have any line planned for advanced logic processor nodes, or experience designing logic chips at that scale. When you compare R&D expenditure of Huawei and BYD, there remained a very deep gap. The two companies may still complementary each other in many areas (not limited to OS).


Actually BYD is starting to use Huawei motors on their Song Plus EV, I'm not sure why, but that's been confirmed by official declaration documents. It is also likely their new flagship brand will be using Huawei computational hardware though this is not officially confirmed. With that said, I agree that at this stage BYD would not yield their majority models to a Huawei provided OS.

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If BYD is banned in western countries, then western brands will also be banned in China.