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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
bajingan said:
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Their biggest nightmare, two front confrontation against China and russia
it is no coincidence that after Wang yi and lavrov meeting in Guilin, we saw russian build up in ukraine and increased Chinese activity in the scs and taiwan strait
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Yep. If things go truly down, a possibility could be a mass attack from Russia on Ukraine to get some land there (or for other strategic purposes dunno) and China might escalate on the SCS.

Honestly, I cant really say that this scenario will happen but if it did, then to me that would mean that Russia would repay China's favour by stirring up trouble on Japan or Eastern Europe, if China decided to take over Taiwan.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
voyager1 said:
Yep. If things go truly down, a possibility could be a mass attack from Russia on Ukraine to get some land there (or for other strategic purposes dunno) and China might escalate on the SCS.

Honestly, I cant really say that this scenario will happen but if it did, then to me that would mean that Russia would repay China's favour by stirring up trouble on Japan or Eastern Europe, if China decided to take over Taiwan
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There really isn’t much for China to gain to create conflict in the SCS, nor would it serve much purpose as a strategic distraction.

The only rationale for China to stir things up in the SCS is if they want to retake Taiwan but have concluded that the US will directly intervene militarily.

In which case it would make sense to start a war in the SCS first and destroy, or at least severely degrade the USN in the naval meat grinder China built there so that America would not no viable military option left when China does move on Taiwan.

But that is both premature and dangerous at this stage. American involvement is not guaranteed on Taiwan, and there are far more effective ways for China to start a war with America than to stir things up in the SCS with more island building. Announcing an ADIZ over the SCS and aggressively intercepting US military aircraft in it would do it.

Personally I see it as China having given the Russians a heads up that they might move on Taiwan in the not too distant future, and Moscow is taking advantage to line up on Ukraine such that once China goes on Taiwan, they will move on Ukraine while the world’s attention is on Taiwan. This will also present the US with an impossible choice of deciding if it wants to surge forces to Europe or Asia, or do both and potentially be massively trounced in either or both theatres due to spreading their forces too thinly.
 
V

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
There really isn’t much for China to gain to create conflict in the SCS, nor would it serve much purpose as a strategic distraction.

The only rationale for China to stir things up in the SCS is if they want to retake Taiwan but have concluded that the US will directly intervene militarily.

In which case it would make sense to start a war in the SCS first and destroy, or at least severely degrade the USN in the naval meat grinder China built there so that America would not no viable military option left when China does move on Taiwan.

But that is both premature and dangerous at this stage. American involvement is not guaranteed on Taiwan, and there are far more effective ways for China to start a war with America than to stir things up in the SCS with more island building. Announcing an ADIZ over the SCS and aggressively intercepting US military aircraft in it would do it.

Personally I see it as China having given the Russians a heads up that they might move on Taiwan in the not too distant future, and Moscow is taking advantage to line up on Ukraine such that once China goes on Taiwan, they will move on Ukraine while the world’s attention is on Taiwan. This will also present the US with an impossible choice of deciding if it wants to surge forces to Europe or Asia, or do both and potentially be massively trounced in either or both theatres due to spreading their forces too thinly.
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IMO the most possible scenario is that Russia and China temporarily aligned their moves so that each country would benefit from the other's country moves (distraction).

Although, I have to say that I dont understand the reason of China's move on SCS and the benefits it would gain there.

Is it for building new islands?
For pushing back Philippines from the SCS by the classic grayzone warfare?
Send a message to the region that the US cant help them?
Push for completing the Code of Conduct with ASEAN (seems to be stalling)?

I would appreciate it if you could give some insights on the broader objectives of China regarding this move on SCS.
 
K

Khalij e Fars

Junior Member
Registered Member
voyager1 said:
Why should they though?

Call me cynical, but Israel has been hyping the Iranian nuclear threat since 2003. As more years pass by I am almost convinced that Israel benefits from this as they have a valid excuse to pressure Iran with sanctions (by the US) and to stop it from becoming a strong regional power.

So in a hypothetical scenario, it could be 2100 and Israel would still loudly make a fuss about a nuclear Iran and how more sanctions must be placed on them
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Iran's qualitative advancements on its path to latent nuclear break-out capacity continue unabated. However, it's also true that if Iran's threat didn't exist, Bibi would need to invent it: his political career as tsar of Israel has been built almost entirely on the Iranian "threat".
 
bajingan

bajingan

Senior Member

Has anybody listen to this interview?
On this interview lee kuan yew was asked whether the us would intervenene if China invades taiwan
He said even if the americans intervened in taiwan and won (increasingly unlikely), China will comeback second time, third time until it wins, so there is no point in intervening
 
E

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
voyager1 said:
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Someone give Blinken his meds. After more than a year, the US is still obsessed with China.

I think they should pay more attention to their economy and leave China alone
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Lol, given how Florida and Texas are opening up so quick, they are bound to have more multations pop up with will eventually become back enough to force them into a situation where is it truly do or die and the thing is, is that it will come to the point where vaccines will become useless
 
daifo

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
bajingan said:

Has anybody listen to this interview?
On this interview lee kuan yew was asked whether the us would intervenene if China invades taiwan
He said even if the americans intervened in taiwan and won (increasingly unlikely), China will comeback second time, third time until it wins, so there is no point in intervening
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What I find amazing is that it is 2021, with all the ability to do research and study past conflicts, the hk rioters and taiwanese haven't figured out where they really sit in the global board of chess.
 
H

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
BoraTas said:
The US Military bypassing the civilian authority? What? This is a military dictatorship level act.
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A necessity. The civilian "leadership" have lost their "mandate from heaven". :p


siegecrossbow said:
What is happening??!??!

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A nothing burger. Washington thinks they still have a chance by throwing table scraps at Tehran. It would be foolish for Iran to give up their advantage by returning to the JCPOA without having all sanctions lifted.


voyager1 said:
Yep. If things go truly down, a possibility could be a mass attack from Russia on Ukraine to get some land there (or for other strategic purposes dunno) and China might escalate on the SCS.

Honestly, I cant really say that this scenario will happen but if it did, then to me that would mean that Russia would repay China's favour by stirring up trouble on Japan or Eastern Europe, if China decided to take over Taiwan.
Click to expand...

I highly doubt Russia would be willing to return the favor by stirring up the Baltics as it would create a much bigger mess. The only thing I can see Russia would do involves the political arena and, maybe the Kuril Islands which Japan wants back. No one is going to sacrifice, or subject their military forces to potential harm for another.

IMO, the SCS is more about protecting the maritime portion of their BRI project (i.e. trade routes) and potential hydrocarbon reserves (this is what the US is really interested in).
 
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