Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario


AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
As another user already mentioned, Indonesia is going to lean towards whoever they think will win.
Another point of consideration for Indonesia is that China is a lot closer than the US, but again, refer to point 1.
Re: bolded text, saying something does not mean they are wholeheartedly behind it. They get benefits from playing towards both sides, and will continue to do so as long as it lasts.

Indonesia playing both sides is the textbook definition of neutrality. That suits China fine but screws up US plans to use Indonesia to contain or attack China
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Opinion polls are worthless. I showed you a clear example of a nation that less than 1/4 supported the abandonment of neutrality just 6 years before and in 2022 this country completely changed its posture. I've also sent you sources showing you similar backgrounds and that's just plain silly. There is no guarantee of neutrality, this is one of the biggest mistakes a planner will be making.

Look at the reasons why neutrality was abandoned. A big part was that the Russian Army, Russian Air Force and Russian MIC severely underperformed expectations and has become a spent force in the past 6 months.

Russia doesn't pose a serious conventional military threat, particularly since Europe/EU (which includes Finland and Sweden) is many times larger than Russia eg. 4x the population, 5-6x the GDP, a larger amount of military spending and also nuclear weapons as well.

In comparison, the Chinese economy is larger than the rest of Asia combined.

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Plus the opinions of decision makers and the public can swing both ways

I think we can agree that a US-China war will be triggered over Taiwan. And that within 2 days, the electricity grid will go dark in Taiwan and will remain down because Taiwan is just too close to mainland China. Soon there will be no clean water, food and fuel on Taiwan. At that point, it is only a matter before the utter collapse of Taiwanese society. That is a powerful deterrent to taking sides. PLAOpsOSINT has a writeup of this: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1584319536245137408.html



Are you sure what you claim? Look what they claimed:
BATURAJA, Indonesia — Soldiers from the U.S., Indonesia and Australia joined a live-fire drill on Friday, part of annual joint combat exercises on Sumatra island amid growing Chinese maritime activity in the Indo-Pacific region.

The expanded drills are seen by China as a threat. Chinese state media have accused the U.S. of building an Indo-Pacific alliance similar to NATO to limit China’s growing military and diplomatic influence in the region.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, Adm. John C. Aquilino, said the 14 nations involved in the training are signaling their stronger ties as China grows increasingly assertive in claiming virtually the entire South China Sea and holds threatening self-ruled Taiwan.

“We’ll continue to help deliver a free and open Indo-Pacific and be ready when we need to respond to any contingency,” Aquilino said.


Indonesia and China enjoy generally positive ties, but Jakarta has expressed concern about what it sees as Chinese encroachment in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

Indonesia sees the current exercises with the U.S. as a deterrent in defense of the Natuna Islands, while for Washington, the drills are part of efforts to forge a united front against China’s military buildup in the South China Sea, Bakrie said.

“Indonesia wants to send the message that it is fully prepared for any high-intensity conflict in the South China Sea area,” she said.


Where did you get the information that this would not be China's containment?

Look at it again. The US and China see these exercises as an attempt at containment. But the Indonesians deny this.
You can't use US military sources. You have to use what the Indonesians say.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please learn some basic geopolitics before posting such big claims. The most basic reason why Indonesia and other ASEAN countries do military exercises with the US is because they want to balance Chinese influence and power in the region.

China sees these exercises as containment efforts by the US, and for ASEAN it is trying to increase their negotiating strength. The US sees these exercises as containment. ASEAN sees these exercise as normal part of International Relations trying to balance out a regional power from becoming hegemonic.

That ASEAN participates in balancing moves against China means exactly this, nothing more, nothing less. Petty basic stuff
 

dasCKD

New Member
Registered Member
Please learn some basic geopolitics before posting such big claims. The most basic reason why Indonesia and other ASEAN countries do military exercises with the US is because they want to balance Chinese influence and power in the region.

China sees these exercises as containment efforts by the US, and for ASEAN it is trying to increase their negotiating strength. The US sees these exercises as containment. ASEAN sees these exercise as normal part of International Relations trying to balance out a regional power from becoming hegemonic.

That ASEAN participates in balancing moves against China means exactly this, nothing more, nothing less. Petty basic stuff
Precisely. I can only hope that American policy makers, if not their politicians, are not so myopic, ignorant, and culturally blind as to start a war with China on the assumption that India or SEA will go through with it. They can expect Australia and maybe Japan to go along with their intervention, but if they are basing their plans off an assumption that SEA will cooporate with their hegemonic war then they are truly off their meds.
 

tphuang

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Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I got tired of Indonesia. Everyone believes what they want.

An article from 2018 doesn't seem forced, does it?

If it's to use fonts against fonts, I have a recent and much more reliable font you posted that totally refutes this hesitation you so often claim:
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The article clearly demonstrates that Japan's previous strategy is shifting to a more aggressive phase and willing to defend Taiwan in a framework of cooperation with various other actors, including the US. I am seeing just the opposite of a hesitation on the part of Japan regarding China and Taiwan.
I'm a little confused. The article I linked to is from July 2022. There seems to be what Japan says in public vs what Japan is saying the private. I personally think that's a terrible strategy, but maybe they are also secretly telling China these things.

If you are Japan, what is the pro for announcing your support for US early on? If America is winning, Japan can always join in on the parade. If America is losing, then Japan should try to avoid getting involved.

I think at this point, most people are assuming that Australia and Japan will go with whatever decision America chooses. I agree with Australia, because China can't really destroy Australia. Japan has a tougher decision to make and it is a Pacifist country. You may read about Japan re-arming itself, but it really hasn't done very much.

Of course if you are China, you have to plan with the assumption that Japan will get involved and that other countries might involved also on America's side.
 

Chilled_k6

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not as optimistic WRT this field, but that might just myself being more conservative.


Another big problem that should be mentioned would be how PLAN should counter Virginia SSNs when they are armed with hypersonic missiles in the coming future:
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... which largely doesn't require them to come close to within tens of kilometers (and subsequently, ASW coverage of the PLAN) to launch their payload(?)

I have confidence that PLAN's ASW capability is sufficient within the First Island Chain, but what happens outside that chain is really concerning. Unless the PLAN does not plan to operate beyond the First Island Chain (even for a Taiwan AR scenario), then this would be something important that those in the August 1st building would have to resolve ASAP and with due diligence.

No wonder Winston Churchill proclaimed that the "U-boat peril" is what scared him the most during the entire WW2.
The sub launched LRHW (Naval CPS) is indeed a problem, but it's slated for 2029 and for PLA standards that's really a long time to develop countermeasures. Zumwalt will be able to carry 12 CPS missiles. If all the Zumwalts are committed then a total of 36 missiles not including reloading, of which the first of it's class will be refitted by 2025. This trajectory is a drop in the bucket to stem the tide.

IMO more concerning is the US army LRHW (Dark Eagle) which they'll start deploying next year as part of their own "anti-navy" strategy to lock the island chains. Along with all the other LRPF stuff like unmanned HIMARS, NSM launchers and etc. If they get some these systems deployed in Taiwan soon (whether controlled by themselves or ROC) it'll be major problem.

Still, China has a major advantage in actually fielding and mass producing cost-effective hypersonic missiles. I'm actually wondering whether the PLA plans (or maybe already secretly in service) to have a TEL that can launch multiple containerized DF-17s like the Dark Eagle is intended to. Technically that should be easy at this point. It makes even more sense for the PLA since DF-17s are being manufactured in the hundreds per year.

1668292853318.png
 

Sinnavuuty

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm a little confused. The article I linked to is from July 2022. There seems to be what Japan says in public vs what Japan is saying the private. I personally think that's a terrible strategy, but maybe they are also secretly telling China these things.

If you are Japan, what is the pro for announcing your support for US early on? If America is winning, Japan can always join in on the parade. If America is losing, then Japan should try to avoid getting involved.

I think at this point, most people are assuming that Australia and Japan will go with whatever decision America chooses. I agree with Australia, because China can't really destroy Australia. Japan has a tougher decision to make and it is a Pacifist country. You may read about Japan re-arming itself, but it really hasn't done very much.

Of course if you are China, you have to plan with the assumption that Japan will get involved and that other countries might involved also on America's side.
Yes, I actually saw it later because I paid attention to the header and directly read the introduction. I can accept the rest of the comment, regarding Japan, the most negative feeling of US troops is towards the population of Okinawa, but still most Japanese support US troops to be based in Japan. The only problem is that the rhetoric of Japan, the US and other allies is being modified to aim directly at Taiwan, so they are now treating the conflict in the straits as an order of far greater importance to their own national security and this could trigger many unforeseen variables.
Please learn some basic geopolitics before posting such big claims. The most basic reason why Indonesia and other ASEAN countries do military exercises with the US is because they want to balance Chinese influence and power in the region.

China sees these exercises as containment efforts by the US, and for ASEAN it is trying to increase their negotiating strength. The US sees these exercises as containment. ASEAN sees these exercise as normal part of International Relations trying to balance out a regional power from becoming hegemonic.

That ASEAN participates in balancing moves against China means exactly this, nothing more, nothing less. Petty basic stuff
Do you really think that China sees these joint exercises with the US as an attempt to balance ASEAN's power? Have you seen some of China's statements regarding these exercises? I guarantee you that you will be surprised to find that the reality is a little different from your statement.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Colonel
Registered Member
Yes, I actually saw it later because I paid attention to the header and directly read the introduction. I can accept the rest of the comment, regarding Japan, the most negative feeling of US troops is towards the population of Okinawa, but still most Japanese support US troops to be based in Japan. The only problem is that the rhetoric of Japan, the US and other allies is being modified to aim directly at Taiwan, so they are now treating the conflict in the straits as an order of far greater importance to their own national security and this could trigger many unforeseen variables.

Do you really think that China sees these joint exercises with the US as an attempt to balance ASEAN's power? Have you seen some of China's statements regarding these exercises? I guarantee you that you will be surprised to find that the reality is a little different from your statement.
Is your contention that all these ASEAN countries will coalesce around the U.S. if and when the shooting war starts between the two countries? I can see the Philippines Japan, Australia participating since the the Filipinos are a quasi American satellite state and is a treaty ally by the U.S. the rest of ASEAN countries would be in a hl of a rude awakening if and when they do decide to commit a suicide Pact (which is what America is essentially forcing them to do) by participating in attacking China.

And when China does comes out on top with their war against the U.S. then what do you think will happen to those ASEAN countries?
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
i think below is the general sentiment from ASEAN countries. and they have been saying that repeatedly and mainly towards US side imho

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however, in the event of a shooting war, i dont think anyone here can say for sure what action will each country take, because besides overall sentiment and national interest, there are other smaller yet important things at play too
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm a little confused. The article I linked to is from July 2022. There seems to be what Japan says in public vs what Japan is saying the private. I personally think that's a terrible strategy, but maybe they are also secretly telling China these things.

If you are Japan, what is the pro for announcing your support for US early on? If America is winning, Japan can always join in on the parade. If America is losing, then Japan should try to avoid getting involved.

I think at this point, most people are assuming that Australia and Japan will go with whatever decision America chooses. I agree with Australia, because China can't really destroy Australia. Japan has a tougher decision to make and it is a Pacifist country. You may read about Japan re-arming itself, but it really hasn't done very much.

Of course if you are China, you have to plan with the assumption that Japan will get involved and that other countries might involved also on America's side.
I never think Japan has any choice.
There is a view that they have not given up the fight for leadership in East Asia. Moreover, Japan's history determines that they do not care much about the disparity of national strength.
In fact, the Chinese have been studying the problem you are confused about, and many people have put forward their own ideas.
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Some people here put forward a view that Japan's extreme mood makes them either get what they want at all costs, or fall into serious conservatism to deny all facts and changes.
Because the decline of China in the past 200 years is something they are familiar with, they cannot accept a fact that has completely changed.

Even if failure is not a problem for them, they can do everything to please their American masters without psychological burden.

To this day, Japanese politics is still controlled by hereditary families,they are not as rational as we think. So it's not surprising that these hereditary politicians who depend on the United States make such decisions.

This is a discussion on the possibility of war between China and Japan in 2019:
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The respondent mentioned that many professors of strategic research in the Chinese military believe that the possibility of war between China and Japan is even higher than that between China and the United States.
He also reprinted some Japanese scholars and veterans' ideas about the future war between China and Japan.

The respondent analyzed that the Japanese right-wing plan was to take the initiative to attack when it was confirmed that the United States would carry out military intervention, and use the "American Japanese Alliance" to force the United States to become the protagonist of the war.

Their idea is to follow Mussolini's example and try to get the maximum benefit at the negotiation table at the minimum cost on the battlefield.
 

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