Ladakh Flash Point

Phead128 said:

I haven't been following the past 1000 pages but could someone succinctly summarize the current border situation? (e.g. both side's status)

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siegecrossbow said:

Now wait for the Indian folks to spin 1000 reasons on why drones and robot dogs are impractical and useless, until the Indian army decides to buy them from Boston Dynamics.

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Yodello said:

As much as many in this forum are over-hyping the Chinese leaderships' 'farsightedness' and 'preparedness' as if they are some all-knowing, omniscient beings who are infallible, I believe that China might be actually committing a far graver mistake by letting a so-called 'lesser power' constantly stand up to it and letting the 'lesser power' control the International narrative to its advantage.
That 'lesser-power' will continue to be a huge Thorn on its side unless it is plucked out soon. In fact, that Thorn may actually grow to become a Hammer that can do a lot of damage.

Keep harping about how powerful China is compared to India, how China can crush India at a moments notice, and that no amount of Indian capability or determination can even make a dent in the "Chinese Power' so much so that India is dismissed as a mere irritant not worthy of any action. At the end of the day, India has a huge standing military with formidable capabilities which can definitely cause China great harm. In fact, India has literally 'fight' China to a standstill at the border, in most people's eyes.

The longer India keeps its belligerence at the Border, the more it enhances its 'standing' in the world, and the more it projects the image of 'defending' a 'Democratic' nation against an aggressive 'Communist' nation. India will only garner more sympathy as time goes by, and I definitely see the possibility of the US an NATO starting to provide real 'hardware' and 'training' etc. to India to counter China.

If the Chinese leaders were in fact Farsighted, they should in fact strike India such a blow at the border and slightly beyond, that will be seen by the whole world and from which India will take decades to recover, if ever.
Barring something like that, India will only keep growing, just as China will keep growing.

India has already outrightly declared China as an enemy, Look at a statement from this article; " The centrality of the Biden Initiative is the need for nations to unit.US-China rivalry has become acutely tangible post Covid 19 Pandemic. In actuality, the tussle precipitates between the ideas of a Free World as against a ruthless communist regime. The choice is ours. We either unite and act or remain passive and are enslaved. It is the ultimate fight of the ‘Good versus Evil’. There are ten major weaknesses of China, which the West or the ‘Good’ should exploit. Additionally, India’s role happens to be pivotal)".

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Maybe China will continue to grow or maybe its economy will slow down, none can predict the future. My believe is that, the moment India believes it has a chance to cause disruption in Tibet and among other ethnic minorities within China, India will not hesitate. If India even gains the slightest advantage over China, at some time in the future, India will not hesitate to strike and humiliate China.
As farfetched and fictional as it might seem, why wait for such a day to happen? Why not take action now when China has the upper hand in every conceivable dimension?
Or is there some underlying weakness we do not know of?
Why spend Billlions on the Military with so many new fancy 'toys' if you do not have the gumption to even use it to protect your own border?
As I have stated before, Yes China is great, China is doing well, China is powerful, and I truly want China to grow and become a balancing factor to the U.S and the western-dominated Global order. I just feel that, maybe China lacks that extra factor that will propel it to become a true military 'superpower'. US has that factor in abundance, Russia has it, even the UK has it (though it is not as powerful),China seems to lack that factor, which maybe due to lack of confidence.

India will be a dangerous threat to China, even an existential one ( in that India will not hesitate to join forces to split and trample on China), unless China soon vanquishes India's delusional dreams of Grandiose Power once and for all.

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Xsizor said:

Too lengthy an essay to say something that doesn't require much. China is not trying to invade India. China is trying to have Tibet be its integral part. For that, certainly, India is not a threat. We have to differentiate between what Indian Jai Hind/ Bhakt say and what India itself ( through senior politicians and Diplomats) say.

Indian leader Modi, if I'm right here, has never mentioned China by name throughout the months of friction at the border.

India won't join forces to "trample" on China. Because India has itself admitted that Tibet is part of China. Almost every country on the planet has recognized Tibet to be China's. The age of splitting up and pruning countries have come to an end. The whole notion of a "splitting China" is so so SO asinine that it is amusing.

India, however, will join forces to get the land it believes is its and try to throw a wrench at the expanding growth of China on all spheres.

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Sardaukar20 said:

Well I only judge India based on its deeds, not just its words. It is true that Modi has so far refrained from antagonising China. But so was Donald Trump, until his Covid-19 blunder started to cost him his reelection chances. It is also true that India de jure recognizes Tibet as part of China. It is only happening because of the might of the PLA and the might of the Chinese economy.

What India have done over the years with regards to Tibet makes me extremely doubtful of its intentions. India hosts the Dalai Lama and the 'Tibetan Government-in-Exile' on its soil. It may be CIA orchestrated, but it is all happening on Indian soil till this day. India had created a Tibetan race-specific Special Frontier Force. It even associates the 'Free Tibet' flag and ideology with the SFF. Thus making them a rebel group against China. Its almost similar to Turkey (with the US's blessing) hosting and promoting the ETIM. But its worse in India's case because the SFF is subordinated under the Indian Army. There is no room for plausible deniability there.

India had created several 'Tibetan study' universities that seeks to promote the idea that Tibet is not part of China. Indian media regularly promotes that Tibet is not part of China. We can have little doubt that the Indian government has a hand in crafting the media narratives.

The current Dalai Lama is not getting any younger. Questions about his succession is growing stronger. It's nothing for China in the grand scheme of things. But its a big deal for India and the Free Tibet lovers. We can bet that when that day comes to choose a new Dalai Lama, things will get really noisy in India.

BJP India has made it no longer a open secret that India covets Tibet. Their actions since 2020 has made it more and more obvious. Off course the PLA ensures that their twisted dream cannot come true. But I have no doubt that India will not cease its efforts to try to split Tibet from China. Whether overtly or covertly.

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Xsizor said:

That maybe the case but then is it something achievable - the whole Tibet liberation? No. The Indian Army can indeed Hoist a flag and raise troops but armies aren't the government. Armies do things to bolster the defence. If irritating China with a flag and some bunch of troops is contributing to propaganda, attempts at psychological war and therefore defence, why not?

The PLA can do the same and much more. In fact, from an Indian perspective, PLA has been doing a lot - Pakistan and its Army.

Ultimately, armies don't run governments. India accepts Tibet to be part of China. Before India claims Tibet, India has to claim Nepal and Bhutan.

Both are nuclear powers. I don't give much heft to Indian rhetoric on Tibet. That region is as gone as Kashmir is to Pakistan ( maybe more). Chinese mainlanders have become significant populace in Tibet, all of the civilian infrastructure continues to be built including Bullet trains and Airports, military bases of PLA dot the plateau...

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Xsizor said:

India, however, will join forces to get the land it believes is its and try to throw a wrench at the expanding growth of China on all spheres.

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Sardaukar20 said:

I agree with your point that Tibet is lost to India. India can do nothing, short of starting WW3 to try to grab Tibet from China. Even if India does that, it could very well fail. The Tibetans in China will not allow a return to the despotic feudal-caste system of the Dalai Lama regime. Not after tasting the freedom, progress, and opportunities that China has brought to Tibet.

Nevertheless, that impossibility of separating Tibet from China has not stopped India's misdeeds. Sure, waving flags and choosing an Indian Dalai Lama is harmless to China. Just like ETIM flag waving protests are harmless. That is until a bomb goes off somewhere in the world, targeting Chinese nationals. So if India escalates to one day putting rifles and explosives into the hands of hardcore Indian-Tibetan militants, it could do some real harm. India is no stranger to arming terrorists and separatists as evidenced by what it is doing to Pakistan. Hell, India was fully involved in the 1959 Tibetan uprising already. Couple this with the certainty that the US is interested to stir chaos in Tibet along with China's other minority regions. India again becomes a very useful launchpad for the US to resume stirring trouble for China from the South Asian front.

India could not take on the strength of the PLA. So it is very feasible that India could start playing dirty with China with regards to Tibet. With the full support of the US and CIA, I can see that happening anytime soon. Plus all of India's actions so far convinces me that India would very likely do it some day.

So it is up to the Chinese military planners to anticipate this and act proactively. They cannot dismiss this threat. Don't allow for India to surprise you. Expect India to play dirty, and prepare plans and SOPs to deal with such an eventuality.

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