Ladakh Flash Point

jfy1155 said:

After the released of the Galwan video from China, more Indians are idolizing or worshiping trouble marker Indian soldiers. Indian news media are calling them heroes. Someone in China should release more pictures or videos to humble all the Indians.

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In China there is a saying for this kind of behavior: beating your face until you are puffy so you can pretend that you are fat.

Do you guys remember how they tried to play up this breach of discipline as some supreme act of martial prowess?

twineedle said:

Except you have not provided any evidence of Indian patrols regularly reaching finger 8. If that were the case, surely there would be some video or photo of a confrontation between Indian and Chinese troops like there have been at finger 4? And even if Indian troops did patrol up to 8, that was dwarfed by the number of times China patrolled up to 4 and even beyond. Not to mention China had vastly more infrastructure. So China clearly had more to lose between finger 4-8. The fact is the situation in Pangong both north and south, is back to the status quo ante as of 2019, just as India had been insisting. Indian actions in the south were to secure that status quo,

BTW, I am pretty sure you aren't aware that before Indian actions on the southern bank, China insisted taht India vacate Dhan Singh Thapa as a condition to disengagement? That is because China's 1959 line is beyond finger 4. Finger 4 was the agreed LAC in 1992,

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Your own people say India patrolled up to finger 8. How can we prove with photos and confrontations? How can photos of actual confrontations at F8 be proven to take place at F8?? There are no signs saying "this is F8".

This is no more provable here than PLA patrolling up to finger 4 and beyond. But it is a given that both sides have conducted patrols up to their points of claim.

twineedle said:

Obviously india does care about finger 8, which is why the claim is stil there as Rajnath Singh said. But for India it is more important for China to not be there than for India to be there.

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It is more important for China that India is behind F4 than it is for China to not be at F4 to F8. Do you know why?

It's simple. India always claimed up to F8 and all Indians offers for settlement involved India getting everything.

Meanwhile China always wanted to make a deal between F4 and F8 which in the past India rejected. China's claim up to F3 was to make the deal seem like China is okay with compromising.

Now do the maths, India has to stay behind not F4 but F3. China not being present between F4 to F8 is fine with China it has no loss if the original Chinese offer was always for India to get behind F4. India is now behind F3 for good.

twineedle said:

Facts don't care about your feelings, and the satellite imagery by third-party sources is clear for all to see. Selective video clips does not change that.

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Those satellite photos don't show anything. Show me what you think they show please. Your Indian narrations on the pics do nothing. Those white dots could be temporary tents they could be IA patrols, they could be PLA patrols, they could be anything. Your own military admitted last week that PLA is still in Galwan.

Why would your military say they are working on negotiating for disengagement in Galwan if PLA withdrew from forward positions back in July 2020??

twineedle said:

I see you are stillt rying to cope with the fact PLA had to retreat from its own territory, as per its own 1959 claim line.

Anyway, it's hilarious how China is doing exactly what they say India is doing, retreating from its own claimed territory. If that is a defeat for India adn positive for China, I guess India does not need victories.

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Are you seriously this thick? India's territory as per its own claim runs all the way up to F8. India is now unable to access anything beyond F3. That's 5 fingers worth of territory India lost.

China was the one who took a giant step into what India claimed just so this deal can be worked out.

If India managed to push the PLA out then sure, or if IA was the one who managed to occupy the disputed land. It wasn't and it wasn't able to do anything.

China's giant step forward into Indian claims did at least manage to force India into accepting this deal where India must stay behind F3.

China's claim up to F3 was never China's genuine claim because China's always offered a compromise between F4 and F8. This has now been accepted by India. Stop pretending China's claim up to F3 had equal merit and intent compared to India's up to F8. It never did because China itself never asked for F3 when it offered to settle for something beyond F8. It's done now and even better with India behind F3.

It was PLA that help the area of contention for a whole year during negotiations! not IA. In Jai Hind minds because PLA withdrew the Jai Hinds won. I honestly don't think these people can think beyond that.

@Kakyan @twineedle

India's own government and military admit that Galwan was still under Chinese control up until negotiations and we have yet to hear whether they are resolved now. The new statements for Gora, Hot Springs, and Galwan were supposed to be delivered 48 hours after the initial MoD statements. Can someone link the new MoD statements?

So looks like India gave up Kailash as well as capitulate on 1959 deal. Reminder again that China has offered for 70 years to settle anywhere beyond F8. If they really wanted up to F3 the Chinese side would never have offered to settle past F3. India never wanted to settle for any less than F8. Now it has so if anything it is a pretty unprecedented Indian loss.

Wow they're really hiding now that China has spoken the truth. If China isn't speaking truth one party or another would very quickly be jumping at it pretty officially but Indian gov relegated to pretending that keeping silent now (after a year of running around like a headless chicken with bold contradictory claims and outright proven lies) is some sort of virtue.

The real hider seems to be India.

China said from the beginning that fighting happened, clashes ongoing, casualties lost on both sides (refraining from mentioning PLA lost 4 to not enhance Jai Hind chimping out).

After India's agreed to staying behind F3 - essentially agreeing to compromise deal offered by China since 1959, China has released the full spectrum of information while still holding onto plenty enough juicy photos and videos to prove Indian lies when they come out with more lies.

One reason Indian gov isn't saying much now is probably due to concern for being proven wrong/lying if China has visual evidence to show.

PLA marching in to hold Indian claimed lands from Feb 2020 was an unprecedented Indian loss on this issue (well for the 21st century anyway).

IA attempting to remove PLA with force and failing were unprecedented Indian losses.

IA attempting to capture Chinese territory to exchange or negotiate with more bargaining power but failing (perhaps thanks to non-lethal weapons employed by PLA rather than yet another pushing festival) is an unprecedented Indian loss. After all sonic weapons and microwave weapons are known to be fielded by PLA.

India having over 40 IA men captured was an unprecedented loss.

India having their commander and lieutenant killed in struggle and losing at least 20 in total is an unprecedented Indian loss.

PLA losing 4 men to IA cold blooded murder is PLA's unprecedented loss and a crime India has not answered for. If we are to assume PLA did not retaliate with the execution of at least 4 of the 20+ men IA lost.

From the above, how on earth does India turn monumental unprecedented losses of this scale into greater bargaining power in negotiations? Especially with an India in internal chaos and turmoil it has actually never experienced since independence?

India understanding that PLA can stay put and sit pretty more than IA can even challenge that, resulted in giving up Kailash while agreeing to settle (for now they may attack in future again) for China's 1959 compromise to run the border/LAC somewhere between F4 and F8. Looks like China's negotiation position was strong enough to get India behind F3 (essentially China's bogus unreasonable claim to make deal more palatable), a whole 5 fingers behind what India wants to take.

Details on Galwan, hot springs, gora etc are less clear but given all the above, well you decide.

Mohsin77 said:

I was waiting for Shukla and Sawhney to weigh in here. This basically settles it. Sawhney will probably go into further details in his next analysis video, but as expected, it's clear that India got out maneuvered both diplomatically and militarily. And as he has been saying from the start, this is just a preview of things to come over the next decade. The funny part is that India's political and military establishment has no interest in listening to people like Sawhney/Shukla, who actually understand what's happening, and whose forecasts are usually around 85% accurate. If they listened to analysts like this they'd actually get somewhere.

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Both have in the past mentioned India patrolled up to F8 as well as plenty of other Indian military men in service and retired too. Of course the BJP IT trolls have new instructions in order to spin a victory narrative to shift the goalposts. History proves all though and embarrasses these cheap sell-outs.

Read my summary post in page 890. India receiving any win out of these agreements beyond PLA throwing them a bone in the removing of PLA presence for Jai Hinds to calm down about actual losses. Well that is about as impossible as Mexico today being able to negotiate for the parts of Texas or California that were annexed by the US. I don't care how charitable Biden and the US leadership might potentially be, such a thing is simply so outrageously unlikely it is funny these people want to bang on about their "victory" narrative. Meanwhile the main objective and offer to India since 1959 is taken. China's offer since 1959 makes it clear that for China, anything beyond F8 and associated points in the north are bonuses for China. If China ever really wanted up to F3, why would they offer to settle between F4 and F8?

In fact India claimed to F8 and lost all beyond F3 with China never really asking for F3 since China's always offered something between F4 to F8, well it shows who really "won" if a win must be assigned. To say nothing of other parts of dispute, lives lost, humiliations delivered, captives returned, and who sat on who's claim for an entire year without being able to be challenged or removed effectively.

localizer said:

@twineedle in the event of Taiwan conflict, will India stay neutral? Or will India use the opportunity and disturb peace on the border?

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I bet they will at least try to salami slice and escalate using a very slow approach but do so nonetheless. Like I said in the past, the CCP better know that Indians will and are already itching to take any opportunity that come. And if they are to only challenge the current agreement with a return of their claims to F8 and associated points, that is something totally understandable. This stretch of land may be uninhabitable and offer no prospect of wealth but it is strategically far more important for India than it is for China, however important China considers it. Looks at any map. This place is an entire India away from "main" China.

Does anyone know if the location in the video match with the pictures?