Has anyone read this report? It basically argues why India still has an edge over China (unless China has enough missiles to annihilate India bases during first strike)
There are several problems with this CNN article related to its source, empirical evidence and its technical analysis.
1) It sources from the "belfer center"... not exactly RAND or JANES is it? It's a university-level political think tank that derives its funding from pandering to the political establishment. So it's in its vested interest to build up India, which is an American sponsored "Quad" ally. But its conclusions are at odds with actual military analysts like Sawhney, who was indeed a former JANES editor. Myself and other members like
@ougoah have cited his analysis many times on the Indian News thread.
2) The empirical evidence on the ground contradicts the article's conclusions. If India had any "edge" over China, would it have allowed China to take a strategic chunk of its claimed territory, without responding militarily? Here's a brutal fact of anarchistic geopolitics: Even when you don't have an edge over your opponent, you still need to fight back. For example, China during the Korean War launched a full scale war on the US, at a time when it wasn't even a nuclear power. It risked nuclear annihilation all over a buffer region. Why? Because like most other countries, China understands this basic fact of geopolitics. The will to fight is even more important than capability, because that is the actual deterrent. Refusing a military challenge always decreases your security at a strategic level. So claiming that India has an "edge" and still chose to back down makes it much worse for India, it makes no sense.
3) Beyond the quality of its sources and the empirical evidence on the ground, the technical analysis that is provided for such a contrary opinion is severely lacking (and the article clearly admits that it disagrees with conventional wisdom.) The analysis bases everything on a lack of Chinese equipment currently deployed in the theater. Even if we assume that's true, this is a variable completely controlled by China. So right there, the analysis fails. But there are many other problems e.g. it claims that the PLAAF lacks real world training. The PLAAF today operates training facilities that are set up like Red Flag in the US, capable of tracking major formations involved in complex training sorties and combined arms maneuvers. Very few countries have access to such facilities at home (most US allies have to go to Red Flag.) India has nothing remotely comparable to such facilities, and its encounter last year against the PAF proved to everyone how unprepared the IAF is for real-world combat. Lest we forget, it lost a Mig, shot down its own chopper in a panic and managed to get bombed, even after Pakistan literally told India that it was going to bomb it (so the IAF can't hide behind the "surprise" factor.) According to reports by Pakistani analysts like Kaiser Tufail, most of the IAF's communications were jammed and the IAF Flankers and Mirages bugged out without even engaging. So how exactly is the IAF expected to survive against the PLAAF today? Have things really improved that much for the IAF in the span of a year? Lastly, the analysis ignores the reported fact that India has very low reserves of ammunition needed to sustain conflict with "any" foe, let alone China. All of these omissions prove a clear bias.