Ladakh Flash Point

Status
Not open for further replies.
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
twineedle said:
As I said, the 20% is the area between the Chinese and Indian lacs. This vast difference in perception is why there are frequent standoffs.
Don't know how you can say India controls 0% of the dispute when by now it is clear India has many positions within the 20% between the Chinese and aindian perception, including in areas that were previously unoccupied by both sides.
Click to expand...

Didn't I keep saying India and China BOTH have positions within the 20%?

Do you need reminding that China didn't have positions inside the 20% and now does?

Previously 20% was unoccupied by both sides but patrolled very frequently by India. Now both sides have mirrored positions within 20% with buffers. Buffers that China got out of India only in exchange for China's forward positions.
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
1641869031320.png

Cannot quote this post for some reason so just screenshot it.

I just noticed that India has no settlement shown in the photo. Just troops. This area indicated on the map, assuming it is even accurate, is on India's side of China's offers for demarcation - drawing mid line basically.

So essentially India has taken a photo on land that China has offered to India for the last 60 years. With not even any indication India has a settlement on it, assuming the Indian claim of the photo being taken on this spot is even true.

I can imagine some Chinese guy claiming India is a weak nobody because it claimed Aksai Chin for last 70 years, lost a war over it and still cannot capture it despite trying. China countered India's attempt to make moves on Aksai Chin in 2020 and China is not cowed or coerced by India. That would be the equivalent of what India and some pro-Indian individuals are saying. So meaningless it is laughable.
 
T

twineedle

Junior Member
Registered Member
ougoah said:
View attachment 81049

Cannot quote this post for some reason so just screenshot it.

I just noticed that India has no settlement shown in the photo. Just troops. This area indicated on the map, assuming it is even accurate, is on India's side of China's offers for demarcation - drawing mid line basically.

So essentially India has taken a photo on land that China has offered to India for the last 60 years. With not even any indication India has a settlement on it, assuming the Indian claim of the photo being taken on this spot is even true.

I can imagine some Chinese guy claiming India is a weak nobody because it claimed Aksai Chin for last 70 years, lost a war over it and still cannot capture it despite trying. China countered India's attempt to make moves on Aksai Chin in 2020 and China is not cowed or coerced by India. That would be the equivalent of what India and some pro-Indian individuals are saying. So meaningless it is laughable.
Click to expand...
India does have a camp near there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421117404462059525
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
twineedle said:
As I said, the 20% is the area between the Chinese and Indian lacs. This vast difference in perception is why there are frequent standoffs.
Don't know how you can say India controls 0% of the dispute when by now it is clear India has many positions within the 20% between the Chinese and aindian perception, including in areas that were previously unoccupied by both sides.
Click to expand...

India controls 0% of the dispute because it doesn't control anything within the 20% by my personal definition. China also doesn't control anything within the 20%.

The only thing in the entire legacy dispute that is controlled (per my definition) is Aksai Chin.

Why? Because the positions within the 20% (while both sides have presence within that stretch as I've always said) are fluid and can change since negotiations are ongoing.

China's control of Aksai Chin is not part of negotiations.
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
twineedle said:
India does have a camp near there
Click to expand...

Yeah like China has camps in there as well.

Neither side controls 20% since both are in talks over it. China wanting a total buffer of the entire 20% while India wants de facto control over some parts of it.

It's still dynamic UNLIKE Aksai Chin where China has unchallenged control since India is not negotiating for Aksai Chin in talks. India claims Aksai Chin and in order to have that claim, it must not allow a total buffer of the 20%. If it does happen, India loses complete access to Aksai Chin since that would be like Pakistan making a claim on Vietnam where it doesn't share a border with.

It would appear China has no leverage to play now that it secured some buffers out of India but it has yet to get India to agree on completely removing presence. China could offer to remove PLA presence from the 20% in exchange for India doing that and maintaining patrol rights but I think both are playing for their max potential win which is India wanting to keep presence and in time turn that presence into de facto control which grants it adjacency to Aksai Chin still while China is playing to get India to agree to a total buffer. The problem for China now is that it has no cards to play apart from taking PLA off 20% but it seems like India is accepting that. China also has no more massive forward positions to exchange disengagement for buffer agreement out of India.
 
Last edited:
T

twineedle

Junior Member
Registered Member
ougoah said:
Yeah like China has camps in there as well.

Neither side controls 20% since both are in talks over it. China wanting a total buffer of the entire 20% while India wants de facto control over some parts of it.

It's still dynamic UNLIKE Aksai Chin where China has unchallenged control since India is not negotiating for Aksai Chin in talks. India claims Aksai Chin and in order to have that claim, it must not allow a total buffer of the 20%. If it does happen, India loses complete access to Aksai Chin since that would be like Pakistan making a claim on Vietnam where it doesn't share a border with.

It would appear China has no leverage to play now that it secured some buffers out of India but it has yet to get India completely off. China could offer to remove PLA presence from the 20% in exchange for India doing that and maintaining patrol rights but I think both are playing for their max potential win which is India wanting to keep presence and in time turn that presence into de facto control which grants it adjacency to Aksai Chin still while China is playing to get India to agree to a total buffer. The problem for China now is that it has no cards to play apart from taking PLA off 20% but it seems like India is accepting that. China also has no more massive forward positions to exchange disengagement for buffer agreement out of India.
Click to expand...
If you are using your personal definition of control than I cannot argue with that
However the fact is following disengagement buffers India now has more positions in the disputed 20% than China and de facto occupies large amounts of that 20%, including areas that were previously unoccupied by either side
 
Last edited:
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
twineedle said:
If you are using your personal definition of control than I cannot argue with that
Click to expand...

So you think the presence PLA has within the 20% means China has control on those parts as well? Basically China now controls 0.8+x and India control y where 0 < x,y < (0.2 - buffer agreements).

I would say your personal definition is more questionable since I made my reasons clear.

Any presence within 20% by either side are not considered control since the situation is dynamic and developing while talks are still ongoing because neither side have achieved their ideal realistic case (realistic as in China isn't going to get India to agree to China's demarcation offers at least not now and India is not gaining the 20% - buffer agreements).

Overall on the legacy dispute India has lost more means of capturing Aksai Chin and lost patrol rights to some parts of 20% which it required/requires to gain de facto control of entire 20% (what it wants as a minimum) and as a means to capture Aksai Chin because without even a channel to Aksai Chin, India is completely sealed off from it by a massive buffer that stretches at around 5km.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top