Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

hijiki said:

The 2019 defense budget put the costs for BMD system at about 3.4 billion.

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oh does it?

hijiki said:

Its on page 13.

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from an automatic translation I figured only
"Acquisition cost per unit: 120 billion yen" (１基当たりの取得経費：１，２０２億円)
that made sense to me (would mean about $1.1b per site),
plus they'll pay for missiles (the right block SM-3 can be like $10m per stick by the way) -- is this in

ＳＭ－３ブロックIIＡ及びＳＭ－３ブロックIＢの取得（７１７億円）弾道ミサイル防衛に使用するＳＭ－３ブロックIIＡ及びＳＭ－３ブロックIＢを取得（※ＳＭ－３ブロックIＢは一括調達）

part? anyway how did you get to "about 3.4 billion" please

Jura said:

SM-3 can be like $10m per stick by the way

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US DoD estimates SM3 Blk 1B at ~ $18m and SM3 Blk 2 at ~ $23m ( From budget request 2018,19)

Jura said:

oh does it?


from an automatic translation I figured only
"Acquisition cost per unit: 120 billion yen" (１基当たりの取得経費：１，２０２億円)
that made sense to me (would mean about $1.1b per site),
plus they'll pay for missiles (the right block SM-3 can be like $10m per stick by the way) -- is this in

ＳＭ－３ブロックIIＡ及びＳＭ－３ブロックIＢの取得（７１７億円）弾道ミサイル防衛に使用するＳＭ－３ブロックIIＡ及びＳＭ－３ブロックIＢを取得（※ＳＭ－３ブロックIＢは一括調達）

part? anyway how did you get to "about 3.4 billion" please

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It's in the upper right corner. Here you go. I was slightly off with today's exchange rate, 3.2 billion is closer, but yen was stronger in August, maybe 3.3 billion USD

JGSDF personnel training in the US on Japanese Ospreys. 17 Ospreys have already been paid out in previous fiscal year defense budgets.

Jura said:

should it happen ("it" = Japan spending $50b+ on the development of next-gen fighter aircraft), how many copies would be procured?

I've now checked wiki to see there're "94 production aircraft" of

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so if F-2s were to be replaced on one-to-one basis by the new aircraft, it'd mean like half of billion dollars per copy in just development cost;

I'll leave the rest for any body reading this

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It is very early days to be arguing about development cost with any degree of specificity as the design itself is not even bedded down. I don't think even the Japanese officials working on this program have an idea of what the number might be. In real life, once the design and initial requirements are defined the engineering estimate on development, on unit cost and in ongoing service like cost could then be costed. I am sure at that stage they will get to that "on my god moment" A number of iterations will then be debated to manage program cost. It will then be taken to the politicians and that is when the fun begins.

In the real world, 90 % of program failures are due to poor execution. There are not many stealth programs out there to benchmark and due to the diversity of them it is difficult to make direct comparison. You need to have access to the cost structure of the program itself to understand the cost drivers. For example, an extract from the work done by RAND on comparing across programs.



The question is why is there such a big difference between the F-22 and the F-117 program?

I think we need to be patient and make objective assessments progressively as and when details of the F-3 program are revealed. Making broad stroke comments based on a superficial view of the facts is very amateurish.

Brumby said:

It is very early days to be arguing about development cost with any degree of specificity as the design itself is not even bedded down. I don't think even the Japanese officials working on this program have an idea of what the number might be. In real life, once the design and initial requirements are defined the engineering estimate on development, on unit cost and in ongoing service like cost could then be costed. I am sure at that stage they will get to that "on my god moment" A number of iterations will then be debated to manage program cost. It will then be taken to the politicians and that is when the fun begins.

In the real world, 90 % of program failures are due to poor execution. There are not many stealth programs out there to benchmark and due to the diversity of them it is difficult to make direct comparison. You need to have access to the cost structure of the program itself to understand the cost drivers. For example, an extract from the work done by RAND on comparing across programs.

View attachment 56386

The question is why is there such a big difference between the F-22 and the F-117 program?

I think we need to be patient and make objective assessments progressively as and when details of the F-3 program are revealed. Making broad stroke comments based on a superficial view of the facts is very amateurish.

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LOL! it must be very amateurish to put the development cost into perspective of military expenditures and the number of the preceded aircraft, while it was very professional to write a wall of text so that fanbois can keep bragging about nonexistent features of nonexistent aircraft promised to them, I guess, 'Like' attached for showing me how burnt matches can be sold, LOL

Jura said:

LOL! it must be very amateurish to put the development cost into perspective of military expenditures and the number of the preceded aircraft, while it was very professional to write a wall of text so that fanbois can keep bragging about nonexistent features of nonexistent aircraft promised to them, I guess, 'Like' attached for showing me how burnt matches can be sold, LOL

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I have to make one major amendment to the original number I mentioned about the F-22 development cost. The $67 Billion that I quoted was total program cost. The R & D is $32.4 Billion. My bad.

5th gen plus planes are expensive but they also bring a lot of capabilities to the fight. For example during Desert Storm, a 40 plus strike package could not get the job done. 3 F-117s were sent in subsequently to get it done. If you cost the 40 strike package against the 3 F-117s then a 5th gen platform is comparative cheaper for delivered effects. The F-3 might well cost between $400 to $500 million a piece (including R & D) but that is the price of admission.

I conducted some research on the F-117 program and I can determined from a RAND study conducted for the USAF that the development cost of the F-117 was $2.5 Billion and the production cost was $5.2 billion to produce the 59 units expressed in FY93 dollars. This is significantly less than the F-22 program but the F-117 had only basic avionics and no sensor and electronics protection. Essentially it is a flying stealthy airframe.

What does this mean for the F-3 program? Development costs is a function of technology maturity and how much capabilities you want to pack into that airframe. Cost is elastic depending on how much you can afford. If I was running the program I would go on a tranche approach so that cost is managed corresponding to deliverables and relevance through upgrades. .

F-117 isn't a stealth fighter in the same sense and breadth as of F22. People should do a solid favor and stop mentioning it along with other projects.
F-3 will cost as much or more than the F-22 development program. Because its technology spec sheet is "bigger and longer". Either the F-3 takes some concessions regarding technology used or it pumps more money to realize these specs.

Xsizor said:

F-117 isn't a stealth fighter in the same sense and breadth as of F22. People should do a solid favor and stop mentioning it along with other projects.
F-3 will cost as much or more than the F-22 development program. Because its technology spec sheet is "bigger and longer". Either the F-3 takes some concessions regarding technology used or it pumps more money to realize these specs.

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If you wish to sustain your argument remind me what is the development cost number is for the J-20.