Japan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


Jura

General
The 2019 defense budget put the costs for BMD system at about 3.4 billion.
oh does it?

Its on page 13.
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from an automatic translation I figured only
"Acquisition cost per unit: 120 billion yen" (1基当たりの取得経費:1,202億円)
that made sense to me (would mean about $1.1b per site),
plus they'll pay for missiles (the right block SM-3 can be like $10m per stick by the way) -- is this in

SM-3ブロックIIA及びSM-3ブロックIBの取得(717億円)弾道ミサイル防衛に使用するSM-3ブロックIIA及びSM-3ブロックIBを取得(※SM-3ブロックIBは一括調達)

part? anyway how did you get to "about 3.4 billion" please
 

hijiki

New Member
Registered Member
oh does it?


from an automatic translation I figured only
"Acquisition cost per unit: 120 billion yen" (1基当たりの取得経費:1,202億円)
that made sense to me (would mean about $1.1b per site),
plus they'll pay for missiles (the right block SM-3 can be like $10m per stick by the way) -- is this in

SM-3ブロックIIA及びSM-3ブロックIBの取得(717億円)弾道ミサイル防衛に使用するSM-3ブロックIIA及びSM-3ブロックIBを取得(※SM-3ブロックIBは一括調達)

part? anyway how did you get to "about 3.4 billion" please
It's in the upper right corner. Here you go. I was slightly off with today's exchange rate, 3.2 billion is closer, but yen was stronger in August, maybe 3.3 billion USD
 

Brumby

Major
should it happen ("it" = Japan spending $50b+ on the development of next-gen fighter aircraft), how many copies would be procured?

I've now checked wiki to see there're "94 production aircraft" of
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so if F-2s were to be replaced on one-to-one basis by the new aircraft, it'd mean like half of billion dollars per copy in just development cost;

I'll leave the rest for any body reading this
It is very early days to be arguing about development cost with any degree of specificity as the design itself is not even bedded down. I don't think even the Japanese officials working on this program have an idea of what the number might be. In real life, once the design and initial requirements are defined the engineering estimate on development, on unit cost and in ongoing service like cost could then be costed. I am sure at that stage they will get to that "on my god moment" A number of iterations will then be debated to manage program cost. It will then be taken to the politicians and that is when the fun begins.

In the real world, 90 % of program failures are due to poor execution. There are not many stealth programs out there to benchmark and due to the diversity of them it is difficult to make direct comparison. You need to have access to the cost structure of the program itself to understand the cost drivers. For example, an extract from the work done by RAND on comparing across programs.

upload_2020-1-4_9-30-27.png

The question is why is there such a big difference between the F-22 and the F-117 program?

I think we need to be patient and make objective assessments progressively as and when details of the F-3 program are revealed. Making broad stroke comments based on a superficial view of the facts is very amateurish.
 

Jura

General
It is very early days to be arguing about development cost with any degree of specificity as the design itself is not even bedded down. I don't think even the Japanese officials working on this program have an idea of what the number might be. In real life, once the design and initial requirements are defined the engineering estimate on development, on unit cost and in ongoing service like cost could then be costed. I am sure at that stage they will get to that "on my god moment" A number of iterations will then be debated to manage program cost. It will then be taken to the politicians and that is when the fun begins.

In the real world, 90 % of program failures are due to poor execution. There are not many stealth programs out there to benchmark and due to the diversity of them it is difficult to make direct comparison. You need to have access to the cost structure of the program itself to understand the cost drivers. For example, an extract from the work done by RAND on comparing across programs.

View attachment 56386

The question is why is there such a big difference between the F-22 and the F-117 program?

I think we need to be patient and make objective assessments progressively as and when details of the F-3 program are revealed. Making broad stroke comments based on a superficial view of the facts is very amateurish.
LOL! it must be very amateurish to put the development cost into perspective of military expenditures and the number of the preceded aircraft, while it was very professional to write a wall of text so that fanbois can keep bragging about nonexistent features of nonexistent aircraft promised to them, I guess, 'Like' attached for showing me how burnt matches can be sold, LOL
 

Brumby

Major
LOL! it must be very amateurish to put the development cost into perspective of military expenditures and the number of the preceded aircraft, while it was very professional to write a wall of text so that fanbois can keep bragging about nonexistent features of nonexistent aircraft promised to them, I guess, 'Like' attached for showing me how burnt matches can be sold, LOL
I have to make one major amendment to the original number I mentioned about the F-22 development cost. The $67 Billion that I quoted was total program cost. The R & D is $32.4 Billion. My bad.

5th gen plus planes are expensive but they also bring a lot of capabilities to the fight. For example during Desert Storm, a 40 plus strike package could not get the job done. 3 F-117s were sent in subsequently to get it done. If you cost the 40 strike package against the 3 F-117s then a 5th gen platform is comparative cheaper for delivered effects. The F-3 might well cost between $400 to $500 million a piece (including R & D) but that is the price of admission.
 

Brumby

Major
I conducted some research on the F-117 program and I can determined from a RAND study conducted for the USAF that the development cost of the F-117 was $2.5 Billion and the production cost was $5.2 billion to produce the 59 units expressed in FY93 dollars. This is significantly less than the F-22 program but the F-117 had only basic avionics and no sensor and electronics protection. Essentially it is a flying stealthy airframe.

What does this mean for the F-3 program? Development costs is a function of technology maturity and how much capabilities you want to pack into that airframe. Cost is elastic depending on how much you can afford. If I was running the program I would go on a tranche approach so that cost is managed corresponding to deliverables and relevance through upgrades. .
 

Xsizor

Junior Member
Registered Member
F-117 isn't a stealth fighter in the same sense and breadth as of F22. People should do a solid favor and stop mentioning it along with other projects.
F-3 will cost as much or more than the F-22 development program. Because its technology spec sheet is "bigger and longer". Either the F-3 takes some concessions regarding technology used or it pumps more money to realize these specs.
 

Brumby

Major
F-117 isn't a stealth fighter in the same sense and breadth as of F22. People should do a solid favor and stop mentioning it along with other projects.
F-3 will cost as much or more than the F-22 development program. Because its technology spec sheet is "bigger and longer". Either the F-3 takes some concessions regarding technology used or it pumps more money to realize these specs.
If you wish to sustain your argument remind me what is the development cost number is for the J-20.
 

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