Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

I do not think it is realistic for China to do something as radical as using force in the straits and expect the international community to simply let it go ahead. When a nation as big and powerful as China does something like that, upsetting the balance of power in the world's most important and fragile area, risking a massive war, poeple aren't just going to sit back and say "Oh well, they've got a lot of money so there's nothing we can do." The scenario I envision is one in which the US tries to broker a diplomatic solution while perventing an all out invasion by deploying troops, planes and carriers to East Asia. I know that at least the Us isn't going to losse so much face, let China flaunt its word with so much ease and act so aggressively. Its simply dangerous, because when the Chinese push the envelope like that and find that there is no one pushing back, there's no telling exactly how far they might push it.

Finn McCool said:

Its simply dangerous, because when the Chinese push the envelope like that and find that there is no one pushing back, there's no telling exactly how far they might push it.

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This is a point that I made as well earlier (at least I think I did). First of all America has interests in Taiwan just like China does in North Korea. But second, and more importantly, American opinion (both in the government and general public) is very much that the US should not let China do as it pleases. China has to be told where its boundaries are, so to speak, they would say. Sure it wouldn't adhere to them 100%, but it would "behave" better than if it was given carte blanche.

FuManChu said:

But second, and more importantly, American opinion (both in the government and general public) is very much that the US should not let China do as it pleases. China has to be told where its boundaries are, so to speak, they would say. Sure it wouldn't adhere to them 100%, but it would "behave" better than if it was given carte blanche.

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Exactly. It is dangerous to simply let China "bend the rules" by attacking Kinmen and Matsu. Just look at what happened when the Japanese attacked Manchuria in 1931. No one did anything, and only a few years later Japan attacked all of China, know that it would not be stopped. At least that's how it would be percieved in the US. So an attack on the islands would be met with a stern response.

At least that's how it would be percieved in the US. So an attack on the islands would be met with a stern response.

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It wouldn't be seen as severeley, or even close. Manchuria was larger and was part of a very large country important in strategic affairs. The international community came against Japan when they began to commit war crimes and massacres. China won't have to do that to take the islands. It will be about as much of a crisis as the invasion of Chechnya. People were against it, but no war erupted because of it.

An invasion of these islands would be even less objectionable than the invasion of Chechnya, which has faced far more problems.

Hmm I thinks you guys have missed something.

When every country states their adherence to the One China Principle, they are acknowleding that China and Taiwan are one country and that conflict between them would be civil, not International Aggression.

If any other nation sought to intervene in the conflict against China, then this would be International Aggression against Chinese Territory. This would trigger the Shanghai Six Mutual Defence Treaty, which means Russia and the other members would be obliged to enter the war.

I would also pre-empt those who would seek to cast doubt on the other members fulfilling their treaty obligations, by stating that all nations take these kind of obligations seriously and so to disregard them would be a foolish error of monumental proportions.

SampanViking said:

If any other nation sought to intervene in the conflict against China, then this would be International Aggression against Chinese Territory. This would trigger the Shanghai Six Mutual Defence Treaty, which means Russia and the other members would be obliged to enter the war.

I would also pre-empt those who would seek to cast doubt on the other members fulfilling their treaty obligations, by stating that all nations take these kind of obligations seriously and so to disregard them would be a foolish error of monumental proportions.

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I doubt that would happen. Do you really think that Russia would launch an attack on the US if it intervened over Taiwan? Putin is more canny than that. He would either say that this was not a direct attack on China, or make some foreign diplomacy bluster and leave it at that. Unless American marines tried to take China's eastern sea-board settlements (as unlikely as that would be), Russia and China's neighbours would find themselves "unavailable" to lend anything other than moral support to China.

To put it another way, those countries could risk pissing China off by not getting involved, or really piss the US off by attacking it and suffer whatever economic, diplomatic and military response it could muster. I think it's a no-brainer - play it safe and make profuse apologies to Beijing.

FuManChu said:

I doubt that would happen. Do you really think that Russia would launch an attack on the US if it intervened over Taiwan? Putin is more canny than that. He would either say that this was not a direct attack on China, or make some foreign diplomacy bluster and leave it at that. Unless American marines tried to take China's eastern sea-board settlements (as unlikely as that would be), Russia and China's neighbours would find themselves "unavailable" to lend anything other than moral support to China.

To put it another way, those countries could risk pissing China off by not getting involved, or really piss the US off by attacking it and suffer whatever economic, diplomatic and military response it could muster. I think it's a no-brainer - play it safe and make profuse apologies to Beijing.

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Maybe you are right, but same thing could be say about China. Do you really think that how many nations would lanch an attack on China if China attacked over Taiwan. The so call allies of US, how many of them will want to involve a major military conflict with China.

Yes I agree with Fu and Kyli. Most countries would try to stay as far away as they could from any US-China War. We could expect to see the Russians aiding the Chinese like they aided Iraq. Nations would probably line up into camps diplomatically, but would stay away from military involvement. why would Russia enter the war when it could reap the profits by selling vast amounts of gas to both parties, possibly sell weapons to China and watch its to greatest competitors beat each other to death? Russia would probably be like the US in the early years of WWI and WWII: stay neutral and reap the profits.

KYli said:

Maybe you are right, but same thing could be say about China. Do you really think that how many nations would lanch an attack on China if China attacked over Taiwan. The so call allies of US, how many of them will want to involve a major military conflict with China.

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I don't think any would attack the mainland - even the United States wouldn't, unless it was desperate to limit reinforcements. But a country like say Japan might help defend Taiwan itself. As to countries like the UK, we don't have forces deployed in the region so we couldn't give direct military aid even if we wanted to.

Japan would be violating its constitution.