Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

I do not think it is realistic for China to do something as radical as using force in the straits and expect the international community to simply let it go ahead. When a nation as big and powerful as China does something like that, upsetting the balance of power in the world's most important and fragile area, risking a massive war, poeple aren't just going to sit back and say "Oh well, they've got a lot of money so there's nothing we can do."

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funny.....isnt this what the world community did when the US attacked Iraq....a lot nations was against the war like France....but did they do anything about it? Nada.....except for a few word trashing

The US has shown that "might is right" with Iraq.....no one dared opposed their invasion with military or economic pressure.....why? because the US is the no.1 global consumer.....upsetting that will cause havoc in the global economy.....

Now look at what China is doing.....and i believe what China is doing right now is trying to get closer relations to a lot of countries as possible whether in terms of military or economic cooperation. China is trying to interlink their economies with China and further isolating the US.....look at the broader picture of whats happening right now.....once that happens not a lot of countries can do much if "eventual reunification" happens whether by force or thru diplomatic means......

Hey, is it possible to encircle Jinmen and Mazu with ships and subs further on into the straight, and offer them to surrender? Should this be successful, you'll save a lot of hassle, along with casualties (not just human casualties, but precious fighters and ships). Provided that the officer in charge of the defence of these islands answer quickly, of course. Give them a minute or two for answers. Of course, have your planes and troops ready, so if they do not surrender, you can then assault it, and try to convince the troops on radio or loudspeakers that you have landed on the island and that they have no hope... just a thought...

Obcession said:

Hey, is it possible to encircle Jinmen and Mazu with ships and subs further on into the straight, and offer them to surrender? Should this be successful, you'll save a lot of hassle, along with casualties (not just human casualties, but precious fighters and ships). Provided that the officer in charge of the defence of these islands answer quickly, of course. Give them a minute or two for answers. Of course, have your planes and troops ready, so if they do not surrender, you can then assault it, and try to convince the troops on radio or loudspeakers that you have landed on the island and that they have no hope... just a thought...

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Let's just imagine what's going through the mind of the commander of the islands when that happens. Either surrender to the enemy without a fight and be charged for treason, or fight against a vastly superior enemy force and either be killed or taken as a prisoner of war.

Yeah, surrender is a little bit more attractive, I suppose. I guess it would depend on his (Yeah, I'm pretty sure there are no female commanders in very important military positions in Taiwan) stance on unification. Of course, I don't think he would have thought out all of the potential economic, cultural, and political pros and cons, but hey, who can blame him.

A gun pointed at your head's a strong argument.

don't think the commander will need to consider treason, since there's only two opposions, surrender now or surrender later. or the third choice of getting killed. there's pretty much no doubt he'll loss control of the islands, and get captured if he decide to fight it out. and don't think that china is going to give him up after capturing him either if he surrenders early or later. because that'll just be giving those guys on taiwan more capability to defend.

Hi Fu Man Chu

I doubt that would happen. Do you really think that Russia would launch an attack on the US if it intervened over Taiwan? Putin is more canny than that. He would either say that this was not a direct attack on China, or make some foreign diplomacy bluster and leave it at that. Unless American marines tried to take China's eastern sea-board settlements (as unlikely as that would be), Russia and China's neighbours would find themselves "unavailable" to lend anything other than moral support to China.

To put it another way, those countries could risk pissing China off by not getting involved, or really piss the US off by attacking it and suffer whatever economic, diplomatic and military response it could muster. I think it's a no-brainer - play it safe and make profuse apologies to Beijing.

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I have to say that this view sounds more like Neo-Con wishful thinking than any kind of reality I would wish to bet my life on.

Arrangements of this sort are entered into on the basis of trust and utermost good faith. The first priority they deal with is Peace and Security between the agreed parties. The second is external Security. The two however are inseparably linked and the history of the twentieth centuary is littered with examples of major conflicts starting because an aggressor has made this very mistake of not taking the commitment of his enemies allies seriously.

You can include both World Wars, the Korean War, the Falklands War and the First Gulf War in this catagory.

For China's SCO allies not to respond actively in such a fundemantal situation as a violation of Internationaly agreed Chinese Territory, would blow the entire treaty structure apart and plunge the region into a perod of deep internal division, distrust and even possibly conflict. Everything in fact the treaty was set up to prevent.

Even though the allies might be unwilling to take part, the consequences of inaction would be too great to consider, especially for Russia which would risk sliding back into the Anarchy and disintergration of the early Nineties, but this time on a terminal basis.

A failure to respond in such an event would take a hell of a lot more than a Card with Flowers and Chocolates to make up for.

SampanViking said:

Hi Fu Man Chu

I have to say that this view sounds more like Neo-Con wishful thinking than any kind of reality I would wish to bet my life on.

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"Neo-Con"? What's that supposed to mean and/or imply?

A failure to respond in such an event would take a hell of a lot more than a Card with Flowers and Chocolates to make up for.

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So you're telling me that Russia would launch a military strike on American bases throughout Asia, engage USN carrier groups at sea, etc? I could see Russia making some contribution, such as helping protect the Chinese mainland from an attack. But Russia would be seriously stupid to get directly involved in something as serious as a war with the US. Are you really telling me that the consequences of not getting fully stuck in would be worse than taking the US head on?

Remember Russia had strong interests in Iraq, and there wasn't even the suggestion that Moscow might intervene to stop the Americans. If the US and/or any other forces attacked the Chinese mainland, that would be different. But Putin is far too clever to shoot himself in the foot and get involved in a conflict he might lose.

Remember Russia had strong interests in Iraq, and there wasn't even the suggestion that Moscow might intervene to stop the Americans.

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Please remind me of the mutual defence pact which existed between these two countries

So you're telling me that Russia would launch a military strike on American bases throughout Asia, engage USN carrier groups at sea, etc? I could see Russia making some contribution, such as helping protect the Chinese mainland from an attack

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Real Wars, major Wars seldom just start, they escalate. Russia may not even be given a choice, The US does have an established "pre-emptive habit" afterall. Further, there are still large areas of the former Eastern Bloc, now more Westward leaning but outside of the EU or NATO that Russia might like to reclaim. PLA Divisions assisting Russia in the Balkans could not be discounted.

Besides all Russia need threaten to do in Europe is turn off some pipelines.

But Russia would be seriously stupid to get directly involved in something as serious as a war with the US. Are you really telling me that the consequences of not getting fully stuck in would be worse than taking the US head on?

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Much worse,and you better believe it. It varies a bit depending on whether or not China wins the contest with USA, but not as much as you may think.

But Putin is far too clever to shoot himself in the foot and get involved in a conflict he might lose.

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Same point as above but worded differently - so another take on the answer

Putin is too clever to alienate himself from a powerful ally who might win.

Finally a point you as another Brit will understand. If you scale down China to the size of the UK, all the Taiwan questions are like asking, could Mainland Britain invade the Isle of Wight? You see it really is a no Brainer

SampanViking said:

Please remind me of the mutual defence pact which existed between these two countries

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It's about acting upon interests. A treaty is a piece of paper. There are ways of not breaking them without implimenting them fully.

Real Wars, major Wars seldom just start, they escalate. Russia may not even be given a choice.

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Unless Russia itself is attacked, it will always have a choice. It might feel that it has no choice, but that's just because it is in a difficult situation.

Further, there are still large areas of the former Eastern Bloc, now more Westward leaning but outside of the EU or NATO that Russia might like to reclaim. PLA Divisions assisting Russia in the Balkans could not be discounted.

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ff

Then we get World War III because Croatia is about to become a member of the E.U., and many other such territories are looking to join. Even if they weren't members, action might be taken anyway to stop Russian hegemony returning to a part of Europe.

Besides all Russia need threaten to do in Europe is turn off some pipelines.

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ff

Ukraine managed to get the Russians to back down all by itself, so I think that point is rather irrelevant. Besides do you think that the E.U. would set a precedent where Russia could bully it over gas supplies? That would be like a government declaring that it will always pay ransoms when its citizens are kidnapped!

Putin is too clever to alienate himself from a powerful ally who might win.

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That is a fair point, but as I said I don't see him throwing himself 100% into a war which he would lose a lot from. He could "help" China by securing its territory, allowing the Chinese to take action. But if he had a choice between making China sour and starting/getting involved in World War III, he would take option #1 every time. If he took option #2 then he's a bigger fool than I believed.

Finally a point you as another Brit will understand. If you scale down China to the size of the UK, all the Taiwan questions are like asking, could Mainland Britain invade the Isle of Wight? You see it really is a no Brainer

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ff

It doesn't work that way, because it would be easier for Taiwan to resist a Chinese invasion than the Isle of Wight a British one. There comes a point when a defence is too difficult because of the area of land in question is too small for stationing enough troops, naval equipment, etc. Plus the distance between Britain and the Isle is a lot smaller than that between Taiwan and China.

I think this is going off topic, so let's not talk about these points again.

Fu Man Chu you are not Tony Blair are you? when I read your responses all I could hear was his voice.

Look, OK, right, now I know you think you have asked me some difficult questions, but actually these are totally irrelevant to what were talking about, so I think its right we dont mention them ever again....

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Well maybe I have not explained some fundamentals clearly enough, so I will try again.

China and Taiwan are recognised Internationally as One Nation. Any third party nation that intervened in a "Counter Seperatist Operation" would be attacking Chinese forces and probably violating Soveriegn Chinese Territory.

Such an attack would trigger the mutual defence provisions of the Shanghai Co-Operation Organisation.

Now this is the jist of the matter that may not be fully understood - unless any of the co-signaturies actively break their treaty commitments (usually considered an act of War by the betrayed treaty members) all Peace Treaties between the SCO members and the Intervening third party nation(s) will be cancelled and a technical State of War exist between these countries

Bearing in mind that the US certainly has bases in countries that it would be technically be war with, not to mention in one (can't remember which) has an Airbase only twenty miles from a Russian one, hostilities no matter how unplanned can very easily happen.

Remember, just because a country does not launch an attack today, does not mean they will not tomorrow - which is what I meant by escalation. This was the principle employed by the Royal Navy when it sank the General Belgrano in 82. This is what I meant by Russia maybe not having a choice.

The effects of Russia breaking its treaty committments to the one country that is primarily responsible for funding the Russian Govt sufficiently to enable it in the 90's to maintain its territorial integrity are hardly difficult to predict. Cue massive unrest and disintegration of Eastern Russia and the emergence of well funded Pro- Beijing Republics. The worst America would do is kill a lot of troops and bomb a lot of Peripheral Infrastructure.

Re the Ukarine - it was contract pressure form European countries fed by the same Pipes that supplied the Ukraine that resolved the crisis. The Ukraine was given a very severe dressing down by the EU and told to renegotiate its contracts with Russia. In a war no such niceties would apply.

Anyway I think that is enough and certainly covers the important parts.

What mutual defense treaty in Shanghai Co-Operation Organisation? I never heard of such thing.

Kosovo is part of Yugoslavia. Iraq claimed Kuwait as inseparable part of Iraq.

Taiwan has no chance to successfully defend Kimmen and Matsu, if PLA decides to attack them.