Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

Roger604 said:

I can't believe how many Americans have an opinion on the Taiwan issue without any knowledge of what kind of nasty surprises await any US intervention in the straits. I mean, geez, there's an entire site of military information here.

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Well, what with the "China threat" ploy being used all that often I'm sure that most Americans don't think it would be a walk in the park, but in all honesty I don't think they have any idea what they would be up against.

I guess education is the kicker, if soldiers that might be deployed to Taiwan have absolutely no understanding of Taiwanese culture or customs, social rules and such, chances are that they will make mistakes and possibly offend the Taiwanese people. For instance, if the war drags out longer than a week or so, and US forces land on Taiwan, and they dig in, effectively occupying, how would Taiwan react?

I'm guessing the US gov would order the ROC to follow its lead, and its rules, and I'm not sure how that would rub off. You can't just go to a country and expect them to follow YOUR customs, it's totally unrealistic, things that you think are natural might not be to the locals, therefore you might actually alienate the ones you are trying to liberate.

On a side note, I'm impressed that Gollevainen hasn't locked this yet. Either he believes that we're getting more mature and more capable of keeping this civil, or he's lost his edge

I'm optimistic in my deep nature...

...But don't think that i wouln't be monitoring this and letting things slip trough my fingers...i'm like Hawk circyling in the skies and just when you think you are safe to start some sort of trouple....you never knew what hit you:nono: :nono:

PiSigma said:

i doubt the europeans will do much, or the american government

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Obviously an assault on Taiwan itself would, doubtless, be met by an American military response. And the European Union would quite probably have a serious diplomatic/economic response - it certainly wouldn't just ignore it. But to be honest I'm not so sure that an invasion of those outlying islands would just be ignored. I could easily imagine the E.U. (for example) taking some sort of action in protest. It's impossible to know because no one really has an idea of what these governments' real policy over Taiwan is.

they'll show the world how the world need china and once and for all make sure no nation will ever even think of pissing china off.

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That's one reason why nations might take action against China if it were to launch an attack on Taiwan, depending on the scale of it. Better to try to rein a country in while it's still growing than leave it to develop even further.

Finn McCool said:

OK OK maybe Un suport is a bit generous considering China is on the Security Council. I don't know how I forgot that. But international support would be very broad.

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That would be questionable. I doubt many countries will fight the chinese simply because china is a very powerful country both in term of military and economy.

Who do you think the most countries are going to pick? "Commies" who just attacked a democratic country or (as distasteful as it may be) the US?

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most countries will stay netural, and others will choose the one that benefit them the most. It had nothing to do with commies or democratic.

India would feel threatend by such an assertive China. The Europeans would be with NATO.

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India will stay netural because there are no reason fort them to get involve into the conflict.

Russia would be the main swing factor but I'm guessing that hey would go with America. At least they wouldn't veto anything because that would be percieved as siding with China. And by the way the permanant members of the Security Council are: US Britain France Russia China

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Russia will probably not go with America. Why you keep mention "veto", did you forgot that China is permenant member.

I think the best thing the US could do in this situation is confront China over their attack of the islands, get some sort of a ceasefire agreement. Basically, prevent war by scaring China and making it realize it isn't going get away with snatching Kinmen and Matsu. Given the choice of fighting a real war or getting a face-saving agreement and then claiming victory or something China would definately choose option #2. That's what I'm advocating. Avoiding war and preventing China from getting away with agression. The American forces would never even fire a shot. They would just be there to back up what the diplomats say. As I said earlier, prevserving the status quo is in everybody's interest.

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What made you think China could easily agree to an agreement purpose by US?
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Have you factored the Pescadores into this equation? I don't know what Taiwan has on them, but they are positioned right in the middle of the Strait and they would be able to massively screw up in-air refueling, transfering supplies to a beachead on Taiwan and pretty much any thing the Chinese want to do undisturbed in the Strait because they would be taking fire from their rear (presumably after taking Kinmen and Matsu). Do you know what forces they have in the Pescadores? I don't so I'll check it out and post it.

And for some reason I really want to use a banana here so I will.

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I born in Fujian. I could tell you that the islands are only miles from the mainland China. It is relatively difficult to defend against Chinese invadision, and if China had sucessful took the islands. I doubt US willing to launch counter attack on the islands. When I am kid, I usually go to mountain and take a look at these islands.

In the 40's the Kuomantiang repulsed an invasion of the islands. They had far superior weapons though, and this is no longer the case.

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In 40's PLA did not even had a decent warship.

Hi Fumanchu

That's one reason why nations might take action against China if it were to launch an attack on Taiwan, depending on the scale of it. Better to try to rein a country in while it's still growing than leave it to develop even further

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It is true that US might want to take some action now, but for all other nations I doubt they are interesting in this conflict. unless the countries which are close allies of US, most countries just did not cared who will be the world super power.

Obviously an assault on Taiwan itself would, doubtless, be met by an American military response. And the European Union would quite probably have a serious diplomatic/economic response - it certainly wouldn't just ignore it.

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I don't know. Nothing serious would be possible. China can do quite a bit in response, economically. I think the response to even an attack on Taiwan itself would likely only result in some ship movements. Our response would be the most severe, however, we'd probably only try to assist the Taiwanese clandestinely. I just think there'd be a major fear within the political community as to the after-effects of engaging Chinese fighters. We'd probably have air patrols over certain parts and maybe increase funding and transfer weapons to taiwan. I can't see our military being allowed to go much further.

The most that would happen in the rest of the world is some condemnations and limiting of economic assistance during the span of the conflict that would be receded at its end.

But to be honest I'm not so sure that an invasion of those outlying islands would just be ignored.

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By everyone but us it probably would. There may be some more alertness among neighbors and diplomatic appeals, but likely it would be very quick and resolute. We would probably only just somewhat strengthen our stance with Taiwan. I'd say the only thing that this could have as a negative effect is the possibility of emboldening the cause for independence. It's doubtful though as most would see a rapid victory at those islands as a sign of China's determination and warfighting capability. It might scare enough people to where they'd be more against independence.

All right its time for me to put reality into this disscussion.

It seems we can all agree that the risks China would take in attacking these islands would be quite large. What would they gain from it? Even if by some miracle everbody just looked the other way and let China take over it would still give lots of ammo of China-phobes everywhere. Attacking Kinmen and Matsu would pretty much trash all of Hu Jintao's "Peaceful Rise" rhetoric, provoke hostility everywhere, have adverse effects on the Chinese economy and cost quite a bit in military equipment. Taiwan would go about buying and making all of the weapons and defences it could. Any attack would play right into the DPP's hands. They would win every election for 10 years. It would make China look like a bully and damage their international prestiege. In case anybody hasn't noticed, attacking places randomly doesn't win you too many friends, just look at what happened to us in Iraq. On top of this China would be risking war with America, Taiwan and possiblly Japan, major trading partners all, so why would they do it? It's just not a good idea. Maybe Kim Jong Il would, but not somebody as smart as the leaders of the CCP.

Finn McCool said:

All right its time for me to put reality into this disscussion.

It seems we can all agree that the risks China would take in attacking these islands would be quite large. What would they gain from it? Even if by some miracle everbody just looked the other way and let China take over it would still give lots of ammo of China-phobes everywhere. Attacking Kinmen and Matsu would pretty much trash all of Hu Jintao's "Peaceful Rise" rhetoric, provoke hostility everywhere, have adverse effects on the Chinese economy and cost quite a bit in military equipment. Taiwan would go about buying and making all of the weapons and defences it could. Any attack would play right into the DPP's hands. They would win every election for 10 years. It would make China look like a bully and damage their international prestiege. In case anybody hasn't noticed, attacking places randomly doesn't win you too many friends, just look at what happened to us in Iraq. On top of this China would be risking war with America, Taiwan and possiblly Japan, major trading partners all, so why would they do it? It's just not a good idea. Maybe Kim Jong Il would, but not somebody as smart as the leaders of the CCP.

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If China ever try to take Taiwan, it would be full scale invasion including Taiwan island. CCP would not risk for war with America for just Kinmen and Matsu islands.

Any attack would play right into the DPP's hands.

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Actually, no. It would probably further damage their reputation. The DPP has already received criticism for its large military purchases and its provocative tone towards China. An attack could quickly be blamed on the DPP's inept nature. People would see the attack as a result of the DPP provoking action and see that even the already large deficit is being wasted since it can't effectively defend Taiwanese-held lands.

An attack would only embolden the remaining minority, but would bring more into the majority. More people would come against the DPP and see diplomacy as an effective means of handling it. The DPP might move for more purchases, but they've already put a drain on the economy. A push for more spending would probably make it uncomfortable for many in Taiwan's legislature.

It wouldn't be as straightforward as you think.

Sorry for the length of time it has taken me to reply to this.

It's a tricky thing to reply to, because it is a very delicate kind of discussion. But I wonder. Would there be any real reason that the PRC would invade these islands for anything other than using them as a staging point for a possible invasion into Taiwan? I ask this with all sincerity.

To factor out an outside power is rather lop-sided and also unlikely. Lopsided because the PRC is several times more likely to win in a straight one-on-one battle with the Taiwanese. Unlikely because the political backlash, especialy in the EU and the United States. Armed conflict is unlikely, it always was. My examples of such were 'last resort' scenarios. A future conflict with China would be deemed risky. China is a whole 'nother league compared to countries like Iran and North Korea. Besides, as stated earlier, a war with China would shatter economic ties that the United States has with the nation, needless to say.

Sorry, I will probably end up sounding like an idiot here.

Vlad: I couldint have said it any better myself. It's definately never so straight-forward.

I don't think that China will try to take Kinmen and Matsu inorder to use them as a stagging ground for a full scale invasion or bargainning chip with the DPP under normal circumstances, as the invasion of Taiwan has to be completed with in a week, if the offensive drags longer than a week, the Americans will move in their carriers from the Indian Ocean and Hawaii, and make things really difficult for the Chinese, so what China most like to do is eliminate Taiwanese SAM and anit-ship missile positions on Matsu and Kinmen(countrary to popular believe, China has precision strike capabilities too), and then simply bypass the Islands.

But, if the US is bogged down in an other unpopular war, lt's say Iran, unlike Iraq, Iranian military is led by competent professionals, it will be a polonged war with big casualties, with the US military tied down in Iran, China would be able to use more flexible means to deal with Taiwan, then Matsu and Kinmen can be considered.