Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
I have noticed various comments on India mentioning dalits as non-hindus. This is factually incorrect. Dalits are very much hindus (a vast majority of them. There is a small minority or buddhist, muslim or Christian dalits). Also dalits have been voting for the BJP overwhelmingly (quite contrary to expectations).

Secondly, it is incorrect to assume, as some commentators here seem to think, that muslims/dalits/tribals will become a majority population in India. That is a standard right wing trope in India and far from the truth.

If you think about it, where did the Muslim population in India come from?
I suspect they were originally Dalits who converted to Islam because it was a more welcoming religion.

And I don't see the Dalits remaining with the BJP in the long run.

---

If you go by the numbers below, there is 47% of the population who should want to tear down an oppressive Hindu caste structure, implicitly endorsed by the BJP and RSS.

What demographic numbers do you have for India as of 2021?

It's more that that. 20% are non-Hindu. 21% Dalit. 7% tribals. That's about half the population right there who are either entirely outside Hindu fold or has only one foot inside it.
 

Leningradpro

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I suspect they were originally Dalits who converted to Islam because it was a more welcoming religion.
Yes, that is a prevailing theory. But unfortunately, we also see a caste structure within islam in India. This is really weird and hardly seen anywhere else in muslim societies. Even conversion to islam (or to Christianity) hasn't helped in eradication of caste.

If you go by the numbers below, there is 47% of the population who should want to tear down an oppressive Hindu caste structure, implicitly endorsed by the BJP and RSS.
It is more complicated than that. We are still waiting for a proper caste census as demanded by the dalit and backward caste political groups. But the numbers mentioned are roughly accepted to be case.

Yes the caste system is rotten to the core, but many at the bottom of the caste structure are quite happily stuck on their hindu roots. While dalit movements have been growing, I still don't see them causing a significant dent to the caste hegemony. Recent election results have seen BJP/RSS consolidate their vote base among the lower castes and a complete rout of dalit parties. BJP/RSS have very craftily pitted the dalits against the muslims. If you study the major communal riots in India, you will see it was the dalits who did most of the dirty work at the RSS's behest. This is why BJP/RSS have been going on the line of hindu nationalism as it prevents the oppressed classes from coalescing and maintains the caste hegemony.

This is a pretty complicated and long discussion, I am not sure if this thread is the right place to continue that. But I will be happy to continue this discussion elsewhere.
 

sndef888

Junior Member
Registered Member
According to their census, India's muslim population has grown from 10% in 1951 to 15% in 2020 while Hindus have dropped from 84% to 79%

There is definitely a gradual trend of Muslims increasing in %, but at this rate it would take like a thousand years for them to become the majority
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
Yes, that is a prevailing theory. But unfortunately, we also see a caste structure within islam in India. This is really weird and hardly seen anywhere else in muslim societies. Even conversion to islam (or to Christianity) hasn't helped in eradication of caste.


It is more complicated than that. We are still waiting for a proper caste census as demanded by the dalit and backward caste political groups. But the numbers mentioned are roughly accepted to be case.

Yes the caste system is rotten to the core, but many at the bottom of the caste structure are quite happily stuck on their hindu roots. While dalit movements have been growing, I still don't see them causing a significant dent to the caste hegemony. Recent election results have seen BJP/RSS consolidate their vote base among the lower castes and a complete rout of dalit parties. BJP/RSS have very craftily pitted the dalits against the muslims. If you study the major communal riots in India, you will see it was the dalits who did most of the dirty work at the RSS's behest. This is why BJP/RSS have been going on the line of hindu nationalism as it prevents the oppressed classes from coalescing and maintains the caste hegemony.

This is a pretty complicated and long discussion, I am not sure if this thread is the right place to continue that. But I will be happy to continue this discussion elsewhere.

Last point then.

For argument's sake, let's say the Dalits are happy to be on the lowest rung of the Hindu hierarchy - because the higher Hindu castes have managed to redirect Dalit anger from the higher Hindu castes towards Muslims.

20% of the population are Muslims and this is gradually growing.
But they will be continually resented and attacked by the BJP/RSS.

Then there are another 20% of the population who are Dalits and who are happy to remain as the untouchables in a Hindu caste system.

So those ethnic/religious/caste divisions in India will never be resolved.

If that is the case, then India is even more screwed than I thought.

----

At least previously, a coalition of [Dalits + Muslims + Tribals] could theoretically have aspired to an electoral majority.
Then they could actually implement policies to make India a real meritocracy.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China is the only hope of non white nation that bring progress and hope for humanity excellent article by Eqyptian via Emperor

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.

For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West. It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly. And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine. And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders. Why on earth would it do that now?

China will be the next global power. There’s nothing that can be done about that. The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4.7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035. That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill. The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants. That’s what it’s been doing all along. Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation. It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero.

See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve. It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours. There’s simply no competing with that.

China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire. That was never part of the plan. US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800
billion a year to do nothing. Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop.

That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day. China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back.

So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way. This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution.


Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany. Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category. Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen.

The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD!

Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us. It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan. We’re a mess.

China was a mess too. But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny. We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of.

I see China as hope. Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overru
n by the West again!
 

Strangelove

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is the only hope of non white nation that bring progress and hope for humanity excellent article by Eqyptian via Emperor

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.

Malaysian media...

This piece and others like it would not pass the censors at western fake news media.
 

Yodello

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is the only hope of non white nation that bring progress and hope for humanity excellent article by Eqyptian via Emperor

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.

For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West. It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly. And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine. And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders. Why on earth would it do that now?

China will be the next global power. There’s nothing that can be done about that. The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4.7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035. That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill. The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants. That’s what it’s been doing all along. Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation. It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero.

See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve. It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours. There’s simply no competing with that.

China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire. That was never part of the plan. US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800
billion a year to do nothing. Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop.

That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day. China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back.

So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way. This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution.


Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany. Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category. Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen.

The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD!

Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us. It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan. We’re a mess.

China was a mess too. But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny. We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of.

I see China as hope. Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overru
n by the West again!
Exactly what I had always thought, but could never express....! What a beautifully written piece..Hats off...!
I really hope that all the other developing nations can understand the rise of China through this mindset. Have to spread this...
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China is the only hope of non white nation that can bring progress and hope for humanity excellent article by Eqyptian via Emperor

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.

For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West. It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly. And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine. And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders. Why on earth would it do that now?

China will be the next global power. There’s nothing that can be done about that. The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4.7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035. That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill. The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants. That’s what it’s been doing all along. Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation. It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero.

See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve. It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours. There’s simply no competing with that.

China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire. That was never part of the plan. US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800 billion a year to do nothing. Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop.

That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day. China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back.

So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way. This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution.

Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany. Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category. Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen.

The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD!

Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us. It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan. We’re a mess.

China was a mess too. But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny. We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of.

I see China as hope. Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overru
n by the West again!
Malaysian media...

This piece and others like it would not pass the censors at western fake news media.
yes I like the conclusion of the article which basically give hope to the downtrodden and appeal for solidarity

China made it, it wasn’t supposed to make it, so now it must die. What a difference 5 years can make. China went from “crucial partner” to “number one threat.”

We should be helping and supporting China to keep climbing to the top, and giving her some serious solidarity as she withstands the new Cold War of Western imperialism. It’s been a long 400 years. China is the first non-Western country to even come close to reaching a status of ultimate global importance. She is akin to the the first member of an impoverished family to go to university. That is our family of nations.

And when China gets to the top, believe me, it won’t be a repeat of the French, British, or American Empire. Not a single developing country on earth will be worse-off because of China becoming #1. There will be something good in this for all of us, so let’s wake up.

- Ismail Bashmori is an Egyptian China watcher
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is the only hope of non white nation that can bring progress and hope for humanity excellent article by Eqyptian via Emperor

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.

For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West. It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly. And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine. And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders. Why on earth would it do that now?

China will be the next global power. There’s nothing that can be done about that. The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4.7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035. That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill. The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants. That’s what it’s been doing all along. Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation. It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero.

See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve. It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours. There’s simply no competing with that.

China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire. That was never part of the plan. US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800 billion a year to do nothing. Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop.

That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day. China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back.

So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way. This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution.

Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany. Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category. Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen.

The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD!

Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us. It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan. We’re a mess.

China was a mess too. But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny. We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of.

I see China as hope. Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overru
n by the West again!

yes I like the conclusion of the article which basically give hope to the downtrodden and appeal for solidarity

China made it, it wasn’t supposed to make it, so now it must die. What a difference 5 years can make. China went from “crucial partner” to “number one threat.”

We should be helping and supporting China to keep climbing to the top, and giving her some serious solidarity as she withstands the new Cold War of Western imperialism. It’s been a long 400 years. China is the first non-Western country to even come close to reaching a status of ultimate global importance. She is akin to the the first member of an impoverished family to go to university. That is our family of nations.

And when China gets to the top, believe me, it won’t be a repeat of the French, British, or American Empire. Not a single developing country on earth will be worse-off because of China becoming #1. There will be something good in this for all of us, so let’s wake up.

- Ismail Bashmori is an Egyptian China watcher
The only critique I have of the article are the 400 years part and the portrayal of China as some backwater s**thole that somehow made it to the top. The Qing dynasty was one of the largest or possibly the largest economic powerhouse in the world. Western intellectuals all wanted to copy China’s philosophy and culture until the First Industrialization in the early 19th century. The only mistake made by the Qing was that they didn’t do their own investigation of the West. Such an investigation would have made them realize the threat the West posed. China has never been a beggar like many other countries have been. In its history, many of its dynasties were one of the major players in the world during their eras. The Chinese just made a mistake which is the one I said above. They aren’t victims/prey; they just let down their guard due to their complacency.
 
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