Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


j17wang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Everyone in thier neighborhood except for Pak is thier Allies (even Pak before nuclear option was always succeptable to an invasion infact happened two times in Pak history once successfully defended other time lost half the country - despite being head and shoulders above India in both per Capita economy and millitary tech- moved in disguised soldiers like Russia did in Ukraine and territory was lost in no time)

Allies like centeral asian republics are to Russia

Nepal was acting independent what happened

They recently changed their PM through political back channels without an election I believe (don't holds on this one though) (RAW pulling strings in the background)

Bangladesh, ask anyone in Bangladesh they'll tell you RAW is deeply enterionched in thier political system, infact RAW was helping the current PM stay in power by breaking the back of the opposition

What happened/ and is happening in Sri Lanka is also well known (despite having one of the best standards of living in the region)

So population is a big deal in controlling your neighborhood, which India is succefuly doing even now as recently shown in Nepal

What is RAW? I havn't heard that term before.
 

Richard Santos

Senior Member
Registered Member
That’s because any discussion of china’s rise could not be a seriously one unless the range of possible environments that china will face during its rise are carefully and coolly considered in something other than patriotically chest thumping, or ethnocentrically wish thinking, way.
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
That’s because any discussion of china’s rise could not be a seriously one unless the range of possible environments that china will face during its rise are carefully and coolly considered in something other than patriotically chest thumping, or ethnocentrically wish thinking, way.

Yes.

But here's something else to consider.

The average IQ in India is supposedly 82.
There are literally no suitable jobs for people with that sort of IQ, as per the studies.
That implies half of India's population is completely useless

In comparison, China and other Confucian societies like Japan or Korea are near the top (average IQ 104-108)

---

In terms of practical effects, I'll use an example from Jordan Petersen.
Petersen recounts training a low-IQ person on a task. After a day of training, they have bare mastery of that task.
In comparison, Petersen expects his university students (average IQ ~120) to master that task within 10minutes.

If you disagree with the IQ scoring, then use the PISA results conducted by the UN, which measure basic maths, english and science.

On the last round of PISA tests in 2009 with Indian participation, India came second last in the global rankings.
India hasn't come back since.
I've done a few posts previously on how child malnutrition and educational standards in India have somehow gotten worse in the past 10 years.

It's difficult to see how India will move past the middle-income trap or sustain fast growth when India's human capital is so low.
 
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AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
That’s because any discussion of china’s rise could not be a seriously one unless the range of possible environments that china will face during its rise are carefully and coolly considered in something other than patriotically chest thumping, or ethnocentrically wish thinking, way.

Then if we have a quick look at Vietnam, by all accounts, it looks like China some 10-20 years ago.

And if we look at the PISA results for Vietnam, it looks like they are edging towards the Confucian grouping as well.

I also struggle to see how Vietnam will ever be overtly against China.

Vietnam is just too vulnerable to:

1. pressure from the entire Chinese military on the Northern border
2. blockade from Hainan and the bases in the South China Seas
3. political isolation from its landward neighbours Laos and Cambodia
4. economic pressure from China which is Vietnam's largest trading partner
 

Phead128

Senior Member
Then if we have a quick look at Vietnam, by all accounts, it looks like China some 10-20 years ago.

And if we look at the PISA results for Vietnam, it looks like they are edging towards the Confucian grouping as well.

I also struggle to see how Vietnam will ever be overtly against China.

Vietnam is just too vulnerable to:

1. pressure from the entire Chinese military on the Northern border
2. blockade from Hainan and the bases in the South China Seas
3. political isolation from its landward neighbours Laos and Cambodia
4. economic pressure from China which is Vietnam's largest trading partner
Vietnam does not have the luxury to treat China as a permanent enemy for all the reasons you laid out. Totally agree
 

Abominable

Junior Member
Registered Member
A future Chinese-Vietnamese confrontation is an Anglo, or in this case an Indian wet dream. There are border/territory disputes, but these will be solved amicably. Both nations have a lot in common, and have common enemies.

The Sino-Vietnamese war was a different era, with both nations having more hot headed leaders. Things are different now.
 

weig2000

Senior Member
A future Chinese-Vietnamese confrontation is an Anglo, or in this case an Indian wet dream. There are border/territory disputes, but these will be solved amicably. Both nations have a lot in common, and have common enemies.

The Sino-Vietnamese war was a different era, with both nations having more hot headed leaders. Things are different now.

I'm sorry China had very calm and cool-headed leader back then and since. Vietnam, on the other hand, had very hot-headed leaders back then, and got carried away by their victory against the American, believing in the myth of their power and started throwing around their weight and invading neighboring countries.

They were taught a hard lesson by the cool-headed Chinese leader, and rightly so. I'm sure the lesson has been keenly learned and Vietnam has been much cool-headed since.
 

Leningradpro

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I have noticed various comments on India mentioning dalits as non-hindus. This is factually incorrect. Dalits are very much hindus (a vast majority of them. There is a small minority or buddhist, muslim or Christian dalits). Also dalits have been voting for the BJP overwhelmingly (quite contrary to expectations).

Secondly, it is incorrect to assume, as some commentators here seem to think, that muslims/dalits/tribals will become a majority population in India. That is a standard right wing trope in India and far from the truth.
 

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